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Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

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ECM ens anomalies

EDH101-144.GIF?24-0   EDH101-192.GIF?24-0   EDH101-240.GIF?24-0

Certainly evidence to suggest a more southerly track to the jetstream with below normal heights over south west Europe. Can this track south and east enough to put the UK in a wintry position? A long way from yesterday with a typical +NAO signature, we could still end up in a cyclonic south to south westerly, but the option for a cold flow from the south east or east with low pressure sliding into France is there and a much greater possibility on todays suites. Uncertainty is very high given the background signals and the delicate nature of the Atlantic ridge in the short term.

Edited by Captain Shortwave

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1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

 

Last 2 de Bilt ENS, Defo a large cluster staying colder on the latest but none really cold.

IMG_4070.PNG

IMG_4071.PNG

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22 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

You are correct snowray, no middle ground will do here. At the very least, it has to be ecm all the way if we are to see anything significant but if anything we need a couple more upgrades to be on the safe side. Fortunately, I expect more upgrades :)

Yes ideally we would want more upgrades from ECM and the other models playing catch up, then even if a new middle ground scenario is negotiated it could in fact still be a favourable outcome. 

Some sort of shift to the ECM on tonights 18z run would be a nice place to start.

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7 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Last 2 de Bilt ENS, Defo a large cluster staying colder on the latest but none really cold.

IMG_4070.PNG

IMG_4071.PNG

Yes nothing earth shattering yet. But we'll have to wait for the extended especially to see the wind direction, a strong onshore flow over there say from ne/n would often be less cold than a straight easterly. The main thing is we're at least seeing that colder cluster develop, lets hope this isn't another false dawn. Looking at the ECM spreads I think the issue is pressure not falling enough in central Europe, we need to see energy and low heights driven further se.

Edited by nick sussex

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ECM101-144.GIF?24-0ECM101-144.GIF?24-0

Well well well.... some very tasty anomalies from the ECM today

ECM101-72.GIF?24-0

in the reliable...72 hours+ , that anomaly screams "battleground" to me.

Lets the ECM is on to something!

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With the spread on clustering so large at day 5, I doubt there is a lot of point in evaluating the eps this evening

 

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6 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

 

Huge spread will render the means pointless, and the " line graph ensembles" (without the individual postage stamps, highlighting each cluster synopticly) also not much use as a forecast tool.

We will need to wait to see if the Op from ECM and to an extent UKMO can lead a change in the ensembles.

So in short forecast confidence low in the mid term. 

 

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14 minutes ago, -uksnow- said:

Quick question to anyone, what is the 'GFS Legacy' option on the GEFS suite drop down bar? Is it the ENS of the para? cheers

Those ensembles are from the old pre Dec '15 GEFS suite, before update. According to the text below, kept for comparison purposes and only run at 00z.

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Evening All. Well, Well Well!:yahoo: The Atlantic has been slowed down a little bit by the gfs , a whole lot by the ecm. For coldies theres lot to be happy about looking at the ecm, but as the gfs is so progressive with the Atlantic ....I think tonight my Money is on the Ecm. :yahoo:

lon.png

lonx.png

post-5986-0-96303900-1439491213.gif

Edited by ANYWEATHER

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11 minutes ago, Singularity said:

I'm actually tempted to advise a total disregard of the GFS/GEFS output until the MJO situation is resolved - but when it comes down to it, even tropical hazard experts can't be relied on to get it right on all occasions.

I think generally the MJO forecasts have been pretty poor this winter, with the RMM plots really struggling to pick up the 'correct' propagation. We've seen the NWP adrift from each other in the RMM on what the MJO does, with the MJO amplifying out of COD into phase 1 before quickly fading back into COD again without the a proper orbit through the phases. This incoherent signal maybe related to a rather strong and unprecedented persistent westerly QBO which is interfering with the MJO propagation. An easterly QBO seems to favour a more robust MJO propagation. 

Back to the current model output, 12z EPS z500 mean shows a clear 500mb ridge to our N from Scandi across Iceland into Greenland out to day 12, however, we are the mercy of the Atlantic trough sliding under this bringing unsettled and milder weather. 12z EPS control rather eye-catching though, sending low(s) on a southerly track into France/Iberia around day 10, though pressure rises into Iberia after then.

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There is a definite signal for pressure rises to our N/E moving to our North / N/W

It is delayed,when compared to the ECM 12Z, but the GEFS but still toying with it

gens_panel_jvz6.png

 

 

 

 

Edited by winterof79

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The EPS look pretty garbage on here, note also that the UK ones are usually warmer when we are trying to get an Easterly.

eps_pluim_tt_06260.png

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What over info is Matt seeing then!!

IMG_2253.PNG

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1 hour ago, nick sussex said:

Latest on the MJO from the NCEP Global Tropics Hazards outlook. GFS GEFS clear outliers and not to be trusted, MJO signal expected to remain strong and continue its eastwards propogation. More later when they download the full briefing.

Certainly hope this will come to pass - anything pushing on towards GWO 4 will encourage northern blocking. We will see....

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55 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Yes nothing earth shattering yet. But we'll have to wait for the extended especially to see the wind direction, a strong onshore flow over there say from ne/n would often be less cold than a straight easterly. The main thing is we're at least seeing that colder cluster develop, lets hope this isn't another false dawn. Looking at the ECM spreads I think the issue is pressure not falling enough in central Europe, we need to see energy and low heights driven further se.

Yup, not sure de Bilt would be the best guide for following validity of an ECM type set up as the colder air is further North.

Edited by Mucka

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9 minutes ago, fromey said:

What over info is Matt seeing then!!

IMG_2253.PNG

Can't blame Matt for posting that, the ECM has been worse than ever this winter with over-amplification, and there is a fair old chance it is at it again but this isn't without substance. Maybe all a bit soon but I really think it is a lot nearer the mark than the GFS

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Just now, Mucka said:

Not sure de Bilt would be the best guide for following validity an ECM type set up as the colder air is further North.

Yes but following the ECM type evolution to lock the cold in and have the UK on the polar side of the jet relies on low heights getting well into central Europe, which would see the Netherlands in the colder flow.

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2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

But totally different to the projected pattern today ... 

2 weeks ago the ECM projected an easterly 10 days out & was remarkably accurate all the way to T0, it WASNT over amplified just not enough troughing to the SE..

Agree with you Steve... though also agree with Matt. Extended EC forecast has been dire this season, I guess because there hasnt been a dominant signal anywhere through winter and as a result see sawing output has been the name of the game.

I had started to conclude that this was going to be the "Winter of frequent frustration!" - but I wonder if we can still hit gold. There's a bit of the Feb 96 look about things at the moment.....

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1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

 

Yes but following the ECM type evolution to lock the cold in and have the UK on the polar side of the jet relies on low heights getting well into central Europe, which would see the Netherlands in the colder flow.

Possibly but it looks unlikely we will lower heights to that extent so far South. De Bilt could also stay relatively mild with the Easterly flow and colder air trapped further North across the UK.

I guess we will all be watching the Operational output anyway for tell tale signs of which way the wind is likely to be blowing.

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