Jump to content
Holidays
Local
Radar
Snow?
Polar Maritime

Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

Recommended Posts

Big swing in GFS 12z ensembles toward UKMO but not conclusive. Say about 60/40 and of course within that 60% there is a lot of variation. Doesn't mean they won't find a cold pattern later.

All we can say with certainty is that the uncertainty has increased.

Edited by Mucka
  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Not sure we need to worry too much about that UKMO low, as it seems to be being pushed North- East over us, by the high moving in said direction. The high is being fuelled by the Canadian PV lobe.

UKMOPEU12_144_1.png

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Snowmaggedon said:

Forgetting about Day7/15/La La Land what are the charts showing for the Northerly early next week? 

Still on but a brief event! You may get wintry showers on Sunday till Monday morning before we loose the cold uppers.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, chris55 said:

That mild bump around the 5th had disappeared in the last few GEFS runs, but it's back on the 12z and thats all to do with the Azores Low spoiler the UKMO has been seeing. Plenty of colder options following but lots of scatter. I will be absolutely fascinated to see which way ECM goes on this!

GFSENS12_51_7_205.png

Isn't that yesterdays ens?  Around 17:50 for today's full 12z ens.

Edited by AWD
  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So what have we learnt from the 12z runs so far today?  Nothing!

Seriously though all options remain on the table (Northerlies, Easterlies, bitterly cold UK highs) but I see no sign of any long fetch Sou'westers so coldies should be happy whatever transpires given that it is looking like all roads lead to cold!  :cold:

I have a feeling that a stonking Easterly is little more than a week away personally but lets get the cold in first and the snow will (hopefully) follow.....

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, SN0WM4N said:

No northerly on the 6z that early.

gfs-0-204.png?6gfs-1-204.png?6

That is the earliest part that half the country gets a northerly not even very cold. 

Day 7 GFS 6z

gfs-0-174.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, JOPRO said:

Can anyone explain why the UKMO is pants when it is out on its own showing a cold synopsis, but is the slayer of cold spells when it is on its own showing mild synopsis in the 96-120hr range. A genuine question not a toy throw ,would be interested to hear some on the more seasoned posters thoughts on this?

Because mild is the default option in this coun

 

16 hours ago, nick sussex said:

Thankyou for that pearl of wisdom! I sort of worked that out after 12 years in here.

 

4 minutes ago, karyo said:

Exactly! Loosing the second northerly is a huge loss!

The models can show a screaming easterly at 300 hours but a million things can go wrong by then!

Only the GEM is now showing the second northerly but of course that's not a model we can trust.

As proved by the 12z GFS

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

and gone is the vortes, well almost at least, not quite 2012 but not bad

gfsnh-10-384.png?12gfsnh-2012123012-10-384.png?12

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

GFS ENS looking good, the mean is way colder than the Op at day 8

  • Like 7

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Battleground snow event for some?

C08FD9QXEAA3O8z.jpg

Kent etc all in la la but some impressive 850s with touching distance

Prepared

town-map.png

test1.png

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

I'll personally' await the ecm 12z..

Then make compare! Gfs12z goes a tad cranky after 168..and it evolution looks odd to say the least.

Let's just hope the ecm can shed a little light..one of these will no doubt be shown as giving it Charlie large spuds...

Still optimism rains supreme. 

Gfs went totally off at 120 hours 

The models are struggling after that FI is 120 I believe

I won't throw the towel in yet. :)

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I've gone through the 12z tho is the  control and ens mean neither support the meto and the split it approx 60% full on northerly 20% similar to the gfs ops and 20% other

IMG_0669.PNG

IMG_0670.PNG

Edited by Iceberg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

A N'ly was manifesting by day 7 on the 6z...OK a NW'ly but you know full well what I mean. It wasn't at 2 weeks+ is my point and had been consistent for many runs. 

The 6z had already downgraded the initial blast. Even if the 12z didn't go this 'UKMO' route whats to stop it from being downgraded more? It was still 7 days away plenty of time for change, throw up a shortwave here and there or get a zipper atlantic low we should be glad that even if it doesn't happen then the door is still open for further chances and the SW'lies aren't in full force.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, JOPRO said:

Can anyone explain why the UKMO is pants when it is out on its own showing a cold synopsis, but is the slayer of cold spells when it is on its own showing mild synopsis in the 96-120hr range. A genuine question not a toy throw ,would be interested to hear some on the more seasoned posters thoughts on this?

Because extremes of hot in summer and cold winter seem to find it impossible to verify. Any model showing a more moderate solution has a higher chance of being correct. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The GFS mean still shows the northerly but yes there is far more uncertainty interesting model watching exciting stuff.:ball-santa-emoji:

gens-21-1-156.png

gens-21-1-174.png

gens-21-0-180.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Will be interesting to see if that pesky little slot gets filled in by the Iberian shortwave or if the UKMO has called it correctly and the low is too far out into the Azores allowing the heights to drop. That is the crucial make or break scenario at the moment. 

However, on the general scheme of things, I would much rather see low heights over the Azores and the displacement of the usual Azores high, as that is what drives zonality. Thank god it isn't there, otherwise we would be talking about what the next usual depressing Atlantic storm would be called. We are still seeing different albeit delayed evolutions to what I would call unprecedented charts. Look how the 12z has ended up. It's actually a very similar evolution as to how 1947 kicked off with the unusual movement straight up north of heights to the South. 360-384 hours on the 12z would have our government calling out a state of emergency. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A bit of killer run from GFS. Two day snap then back to normal. So the next question will the following runs keep shifting the cold east. Deep FI has the beast from the east possibility on the cards as a tease. So at the moment the UKMO has both the GFS and ECM on the canvas with the ref counting to ten. The latest UKMO is even more progressive opening the door for a return of the Atlantic. Basically the GFS has followed UKMO's lead. So now all eyes on the ECM will that flip to the UKMO idea or stick to its guns.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

and gone is the vortes, well almost at least, not quite 2012 but not bad

gfsnh-10-384.png?12gfsnh-2012123012-10-384.png?12

Try using the geopotential heights chart before making such an erroneous claim.

ec27ac3a23a183d4016dbae0662ceeb2.gif

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Iceberg said:

I've gone through the 12z tho is the  control and ens mean neither support the meto and the split it approx 60% full on northerly 20% similar to the gfs ops and 20% other

IMG_0669.PNG

IMG_0670.PNG

You won't really see the move toward UKMO manifest that way. It will generally lead to a less potent more short lived Northerly with flatter upstream.

If you wait for the 192/240 mean pressure charts and compare to the 06z I think that will show you how far they have actually shifted.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:

Pointless looking at 850's that far away anyway!

gfs-1-192.png

Didn't see anyone posting that when the above was up for grabs. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Browsing the ensembles at 192 And they are very reassuring if it's cold you like

  • Like 5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...