Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

[nick sussex]

I don't think I can cope with more drama! I wonder if we're seeing a response to the strat warming. The ECM close to splitting the PV at T168hrs.

[Day 10]

GFS =

UKMO =

ECM =

 

[chris55]

168 looking very good, 850s not looking that impressive by any means but with an easterly/continental flow snow could well be on the cards.

Edited January 24, 2017 by chris55

[bluearmy]

ec is so much more amplified early on to our west. its a stretch to think that gfs has the ridging amplitude so wrong, run after run. small corrections back from ecm would probably not drive the wedge so its an amplitude and timing conundrum.

trough extension to our south at T156 as expected following the evolution

[Man With Beard]

ECM making the very very very best of it here - not far off a snow event at T144/T168 - can the loop close to the NE for T192??

[Mucka]

JMA ECM comparison 120

[bluearmy]

jet streak headed ne into the atlantic at day 7. if the wedge holds then will be a hell of an ending. im worried for it though!

[Ali1977]

WOW, I hope this is right....Never confident when models are on their own though. Vortex split coming .

[SMU]

Boom

goodnight vienna

[chris55]

192

[nick sussex]

We could do with that shortwave attached to the main trough to cleanly separate, we don't want a hang back. So between T168 and T192hrs we want cleaner trough disruption.

[bluearmy]

cheeky fella called for re inforcements from the polar ridge.  not convincing but great to look at.  ( and not outside of the envelope )

[Mucka]

JMA similar to this mornings ECM, close but no cigar, but it does add confidence that ECM is leading the pack on this development.

 

We have seen this battle of the models a few times this winter and usually ECM gets a bit too excited and GFS is too little enthused with the middle ground becoming the reality.

However this trend is still in its infancy so let's see what GFS makes of it tomorrow.

[Mucka]

Get this disruption a little further South and snowfest out of nowhere.

[tight isobar]

Now thats is a possibly' tweak of the triger on the starting pistol!.

Siberian lobe finds decently aligned placement' and western seaboard ridge/waa places pressure for near split in combination of height rises around Iceland. .....

Its a decent northern hem profile indeed....

[nick sussex]

ECM only scores a 7/10 because not enough trough disruption. We need heights dropping more over central Europe, any  shortwave attached to the trough causes problems.

[mulzy]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

ECM only scores a 7/10 because not enough trough disruption. We need heights dropping more over central Europe, any  shortwave attached to the trough causes problems.

From where we were this time yesterday, I think most of us will take the ECM solution and chance our arm.

And, there is still time for further upgrades - a bit cheeky I know!

[bluearmy]

for those interested, that run delivers snow to higher ground in England and wales. need a bit more headed se into the continent

[Coopsy]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

for those interested, that run delivers snow to higher ground in England and wales. need a bit more headed se into the continent

what's classified as higher ground? 200m?

[nick sussex]

1 minute ago, mulzy said:

From where we were this time yesterday, I think most of us will take the ECM solution and chance our arm.

And, there is still time for further upgrades - a bit cheeky I know!

Of course the ECM is a step in the right direction especially given where we were yesterday. If more energy disrupted se and shortwaves didn't remain attached at the key timeframe then we would have seen a much better outcome.

[chris55]

Overall, and especially between 120 -192 that ECM was bloody brilliant considering where we were a few days ago.

More runs needed and Ensembles from all models need to start singing from the same him sheet, but if we are talking about the Ops leading the ens then ECM needs some love. 

[Day 10]

So differences noticeably start to appear between 72-96hrs. Here are the big 3 at 96hrs and I've also included the JMA.

As Mucka has noted the JMA is more inline with the ECM. We are only talking 96hrs here so let's hope the ECM is leading the way. We do appear to have been slowly trending to a colder looking setup than a milder one over the last 2 days. Something will have to give very soon.

[Methuselah]

5 minutes ago, chris55 said:

Overall, and especially between 120 -192 that ECM was bloody brilliant considering where we were a few days ago.

More runs needed and Ensembles from all models need to start singing from the same him [sic] sheet, but if we are talking about the Ops leading the ens then ECM needs some love. 

Isn't that always the case? I'm sure there's a net-weather cliche or two in there somewhere?

[blizzard81]

46 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

goodness me - might get a bit busy on here

Ecm says "Who needs that cold pool on the Czech/German border?"

[Cloud 10]

That's a beauty of a HP wedge north of the UK at day 6 from this evening's ECM and is even more of a belter when compared to yesterday's 12z for the same time.

 

today..yesterday..