Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

[Methuselah]

Right then, as the GFS has failed again, can the second model please step up to the podium? Not to suggest that model-watching is pointless, of course!

[Duane S.]

GEFS starting to get a tad more interested in an undercut scenario as we go into Feb. I didn't view them all but the appetite is clearly there.

#3 giving a classic set up... Gradual build-up of weak heights to our North aided and abetted by the Russian block and reinforced by the Eastern Siberian ridge. A couple of initial failed attempts and then et viola, the vortex eventually spins a daughter lobe off South Eastwards underneath us and hello snowy Easterly!

 

Edited January 24, 2017 by s4lancia

[Dennis]

the AO chart is diving bcs it thinks a Greenlandblock will grow start FEBR

[kag]

Chris Faulks(I think that's his name) was just pushed on the radio 4 forecast into commenting on the Polar Vortex being disrupted by the SSW OF 50c over the past week. He said that he's almost certain that it will impact our weather over the next few weeks and to keep a weak link to topic I presume we will reap the benefit on the models shortly. 

[stainesbloke]

54 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

 

I'm not sure where this idea of the sun gaining strength comes from. Other places on the same latitude (one example being Winnipeg in Canada) can stay comfortably frozen in late Feb so is this not more a reflection on the inherently marginal nature of obtaining lasting lying snow in the south of England which diminishes as Spring approaches in a mild Oceanic climate rather than the strength of insolation at a particular latitude. So a function of climate, not of insolation?

Agree, New York can get snow and severe cold in late February and that is at the same latitude as Madrid. We 'just' need cold enough air!

Edited January 24, 2017 by stainesbloke

[chris55]

T96 looking good at face value, ridge building ahead of the developing Azores low/shortwave/trough disruption

Better than UKMO at the same period!

Edited January 24, 2017 by chris55

[nick sussex]

The ECM at T96hrs is the best of the big 3 in terms of potential moving forward.

[Mucka]

Some unexpected interest (for me anyway) in the Hi res output.

Clearly an evolving picture as even though GFS is much flatter it is still seeing the same signal and has a little more amplification than last nights ECM 12z out to 96h as is UKMO.

Gives us something to watch for at least although it requires a leap of faith to see a cold spell developing withing the next 10 days.

 

[chris55]

All aboard....

Just watch the Atlantic miss us altogether ha!!

Edited January 24, 2017 by chris55

[Day 10]

The big 3 at 120

[bradymk]

Even at +96 we have so much disagreement and the 120 ecm and GFS chart is miles apart in terms of surface conditions for the UK and going forward

as nick says above, ECM certainly the best at 120

[Ali1977]

10 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

Agree, New York can get snow and severe cold in February and that is at the same latitude as Madrid. We just need cold enough air. 

New York and Winnipeg have continental influences so yes they regularly have cold or severe cold Feb and March and can't be put against the U.K. For that purpose - all I was saying was by late Feb onwards the days lengthen and sun strengthens so the earlier the SSW has a chance of helping the better. The sun is way stronger late Feb than Dec and Jan , this doesn't stop us getting severe cold weather and ice days, just needs better Synoptics to do so. 

Edited January 24, 2017 by Ali1977

[chris55]

That 120 chart from ECM is quite remarkable really, the Atlantic was set to be barrelling through by Sunday at the latest, yet we have a Sunday chart with the Atlantic no where to be seen!

[Mucka]

Something does seem to be afoot, JMA 84h

[JBMWeatherForever]

The models have always had problems in determining situations like this, especially the GFS. I seem to remember that the ECM is usually better at dealing with blocks.

As I said a view days ago, I think that as the models gradually get a handle on the situation, near term synoptic changes are going to lead to big changes further out.  I've seen this happen in the past and don't see why it can't happen again. I'm just looking at the trend and thinking where is this trending too ?  Don't think its to much of a leap of faith.

[Ali1977]

Interesting chart at 144 on the ECM with a little block forming to our NE.

Then BOOOM

Edited January 24, 2017 by Ali1977

[Stozzy]

Wow and out of no where 

[bluearmy]

goodness me - might get a bit busy on here

[chris55]

Ummmmmmmmmm, that'll do !

[Captain Shortwave]

Day 6 charts

ECM/UKMO/GFS

      

A real range of options, the ECM looking the most keen on a wedge of heights to our north.

[booferking]

Iv been taking about height rises to the north of us for 2 days and ECM confirms what can happen.. Little pockets of heigh rises have been shown up in all models ecm takes it to another level tonight.

Edited January 24, 2017 by booferking

[weirpig]

Oh ecm the diva of the model world she flutters her eyelids and off we go again . Go on then all aboard one more time 

Edited January 24, 2017 by weirpig

[Seasonality]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

New York and Winnipeg have continental influences so yes they regularly have cold or severe cold Feb and March, all I was saying was by late Feb onwards the days lengthen and sun strengthens so the earlier the SSW has a chance of helping the better. The sun is way stronger late Feb than Dec and Jan , this doesn't stop us getting severe cold weather and ice days, just needs better Synoptics to do so. 

Hi Ali, wasn't a personal slight at you. Just that I see the statement 'but the sun is too strong' written as an absolute statement on here far too often, when that isn't really the case. 

[chris55]

If the 0c isotherm stays south and we pull in that cold continental feed then surely the ECM 144 is a snow event somewhere in the south.

[northwestsnow]

3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

goodness me - might get a bit busy on here

Ecm does have a habit of over amplifying matters Blue.

I will believe when the meto are on board, sick of being taken on by ecm ops..