Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

[Stozzy]

[Day 10]

A real battle royal!

How long has the atlantic been trying to get in?

Edited January 24, 2017 by Day 10

[Singularity]

 

Well just check that out; the shortwave west of the UK has adjusted quite a bit south and is separating from its parent trough, which itself is more amplified and held back west.

Still some way to go before the low is travelling S of the UK as per 00z ECM and UKMO though. Will be interesting to see what GFS does manage to produce - perhaps some wintry interest for the north by mid-late next week?

[bluearmy]

UKMO swings back a bit 

[northwestsnow]

5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

UKMO swings back a bit 

Aye, its fascinating viewing though..

[Singularity]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

UKMO swings back a bit 

   

Consistent with the overall theme from the Euros but more aggressive with the trough. Interesting that it got there despite the S-tracking shortwave and ridge to the N not quite coming together on day 5.

 

[nick sussex]

I'd not trust any of the outputs with their evolutions, very complicated and minor changes could make a big difference going forward. The UKMO looks better than the GFS at T144hrs with the angle of the Atlantic and its likely we'd see pressure rising to the ne at T168hrs but the issue is whether there would be sufficient trough disruption at that point.

 

[Seasonality]

16 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

Looks like a move west to me???

Jvenge refers to the cold pool to the east. On 06z it is over Eastern Ukraine and the Black Sea, then on 12z it is further east over the Caspian Sea.

[jvenge]

Just now, Seasonality said:

Jvenge refers to the cold pool to the east. On 06z it is over Eastern Ukraine and the Black Sea, then on 12z it is further east over the Caspian Sea.

Yes, so even if GFS then developed the other one nearer the UK, the chances of a linkup would be smaller and therefore a chance of an easterly, even a not so cold one, would be lower.

So I kinda think (maybe wrongly) that a move both ways would have been preferred, not a move one way and an eastward move the other way.

[bluearmy]

Are we still chasing the Black Sea cold pool ?

the ecm spread still holds it at the Czech border 

[Day 10]

2 minutes ago, jvenge said:

Yes, so even if GFS then developed the other one nearer the UK, the chances of a linkup would be smaller and therefore a chance of an easterly, even a not so cold one, would be lower.

So I kinda think (maybe wrongly) that a move both ways would have been preferred, not a move one way and an eastward move the other way.

Apologies jvenge I misread what you where saying.

[nick sussex]

How much can that blasted PV cope with? Theres 3 big strat warming events within 8 days, one just finishing , and then another 2. One would hope that this would have some impact on it.

[jvenge]

Just now, nick sussex said:

How much can that blasted PV cope with? Theres 3 big strat warming events within 8 days, one just finishing , and then another 2. One would hope that this would have some impact on it.

It's a confusing topic for me, Nick. You see some experts saying you won't see an impact until a few weeks after, then you have others saying you see an immediate impact, but the full impact not until a few weeks later. 

 

 

[jvenge]

3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Are we still chasing the Black Sea cold pool ?

the ecm spread still holds it at the Czech border 

The hope dies last, no? ;-)

 

[nick sussex]

Just now, jvenge said:

It's a confusing topic for me, Nick. You see some experts saying you won't see an impact until a few weeks after, then you have others saying you see an immediate impact, but the full impact not until a few weeks later.

 

 

It depends really, if its a major SSW you can get a quick trop response. It really depends though where the PV goes to afterwards, whether its a split or just displacement. We'd prefer a split but not sure if that's on the cards. It can be a bit of a lottery and its about time we had the winning ticket.

[blizzard81]

14 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Are we still chasing the Black Sea cold pool ?

the ecm spread still holds it at the Czech border 

We don't need the black sea cold pool if we can get the satisfactory trough disruption at the right angle 

[chris55]

22 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Are we still chasing the Black Sea cold pool ?

the ecm spread still holds it at the Czech border 

UKMO 144 keeps the hope alive! 

High centre held nicely north with an undercut trying to come through, remember p16.....maybe it was just a bit quick.......;) 

[chris55]

13 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

We don't need the black sea cold pool if we can get the satisfactory trough disruption at the right angle 

As long as there is not much mixing in mainland Europe here,

And we can keep a cold dry feed from the continent, then some sliders could well deliver some snowfalls if things did pan out that way.

[Day 10]

Chris Fawkes ‏@_chrisfawkes

Chris Fawkes Retweeted Wissenschaftler.

The Stratospheric Polar Vortex will be displaced off pole. We'll go unsettled (perhaps stormy) in a week, then possibly cold mid to late Feb

[Ali1977]

1 minute ago, Day 10 said:

Chris Fawkes ‏@_chrisfawkes

Chris Fawkes Retweeted Wissenschaftler.

The Stratospheric Polar Vortex will be displaced off pole. We'll go unsettled (perhaps stormy) in a week, then possibly cold mid to late Feb

3-5 weeks for SSW effects is a tad dissapointing - Sun gains some strength for us southerners by late Feb!! 

[legritter]

35 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Are we still chasing the Black Sea cold pool ?

the ecm spread still holds it at the Czech border 

Can we bribe the border guards ,very interesting model watching coming up ,will it be a deluge of rain come Feb or hopefully the white stuff ,ecm up soon ,cheers 

[Seasonality]

 

Just now, Ali1977 said:

3-5 weeks for SSW effects is a tad dissapointing - Sun gains some strength for us southerners by late Feb!! 

I'm not sure where this idea of the sun gaining strength comes from. Other places on the same latitude (one example being Winnipeg in Canada) can stay comfortably frozen in late Feb so is this not more a reflection on the inherently marginal nature of obtaining lasting lying snow in the south of England which diminishes as Spring approaches in a mild Oceanic climate rather than the strength of insolation at a particular latitude. So a function of climate, not of insolation?

[Seasonality]

3 minutes ago, legritter said:

Can we bribe the border guards ,very interesting model watching coming up ,will it be a deluge of rain come Feb or hopefully the white stuff ,ecm up soon ,cheers 

Schengen zone by the time it is in Czech Republic, so it should be able to pass freely through...  Pity the UK isn't in Schengen! 

[Polar Maritime]

Into Wk2 and the GFS shows quite a complicated spiral of lows over the UK, Some shown heading as far South as the Channel.

 

 

[chris55]

1 hour ago, nick sussex said:

It depends really, if its a major SSW you can get a quick trop response. It really depends though where the PV goes to afterwards, whether its a split or just displacement. We'd prefer a split but not sure if that's on the cards. It can be a bit of a lottery and its about time we had the winning ticket.

Not a split at day 10 from ECM just a displacement, and west to east (zonal) flow just about down to 0ms at 60n at 10hpa, so not quite a technical SSW. However lets wait and see what happens as verification gets closer and the potential second warming comes into ECM range.

Day 10

This is the day 1 chart for comparison.

Some significant strat changes, lets hope this can filter down and effect the troph in the future. 

 

Edited January 24, 2017 by chris55