Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

[Ali1977]

11 minutes ago, joggs said:

??

Don't understand bluearmy,sorry.

Another weather Model, look down the left hand side on Meteociel.

[kumquat]

19 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Another weather Model, look down the left hand side on Meteociel.

According to Wikipedia (so make of that as you will):

"The FIM is being developed as a candidate to eventually supplant the Global Forecast System"

https://fim.noaa.gov/

[Dennis]

latest AO and NAO 24/1/17

[Ali1977]

29 minutes ago, Dennis said:

latest AO and NAO 24/1/17

That AO is interesting, thats 3 runs on the trot that have trended more and more negative every run - now we have nearly full supprt of quite a strong negative figure.  Could this be a push of heights from NW russia towards Greenland in a WNW direction as shown on several ENS and Ops this morning.  I'm not sure on this, maybe others could explain what or where the neg figure comes from.

Edited January 24, 2017 by Ali1977

[snowflakey]

Even gfs wonts to drive the jet stream south.

 

[Summer Sun]

Period covers Jan 29th to Feb 2nd

[Coopsy]

1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

Period covers Jan 29th to Feb 2nd

Snow?

[jvenge]

3 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Period covers Jan 29th to Feb 2nd

Looks vaguely like the GFS estimates. Bit brave to use the "will" word for days 6-10, when you have model disagreement. Bit brave even without the model disagreement!

[weirpig]

1 minute ago, Daryl Dixon said:

Snow?

MMm  who knows at this juncture   Spain does however look like getting alot of rainfall.  Southerly jet with lows undercutting the UK?   we can but hope.

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, Daryl Dixon said:

Snow?

No - it either turns milder and wetter or stays chillly and dry

where the two meet it could possibly be white but i don't see it as yet 

[joggs]

5 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Period covers Jan 29th to Feb 2nd

That looks like the lows going more towards Iberia with Northern Scotland looking drier.

[Dennis]

30 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

That AO is interesting, thats 3 runs on the trot that have trended more and more negative every run - now we have nearly full supprt of quite a strong negative figure.  Could this be a push of heights from NW russia towards Greenland in a WNW direction as shown on several ENS and Ops this morning.  I'm not sure on this, maybe others could explain what or where the neg figure comes from.

today 's MJO is also a watch 

[snowflakey]

2 minutes ago, weirpig said:

MMm  who knows at this juncture   Spain does however look like getting alot of rainfall.  Southerly jet with lows undercutting the UK?   we can but hope.

Fingers crossed lets hope for a plunging SE jet, with no energy going over the top, witch has been the problem for most of the winter

[swebby]

27 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

That AO is interesting, thats 3 runs on the trot that have trended more and more negative every run - now we have nearly full supprt of quite a strong negative figure.  Could this be a push of heights from NW russia towards Greenland in a WNW direction as shown on several ENS and Ops this morning.  I'm not sure on this, maybe others could explain what or where the neg figure comes from.

On the assumption i'm reading those AO charts correctly, the verification graphs do not inspire much confidence?  The 14 day bar looks truly shocking, with the obs value regularly falling outside what is a pretty large model spread.

[Purga]

17 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

No - it either turns milder and wetter or stays chillly and dry

where the two meet it could possibly be white but i don't see it as yet 

Of course we could always get this little number BA

[A.J]

30 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Period covers Jan 29th to Feb 2nd

just out of interest, what model is this that's being used by 'The Weather Company' or is it their own 'in house gestimate'?.....The reason I ask is that if there is no inference to a model in this tweet and if there isn't one then to be honest it should be in another thread.....

[Man With Beard]

Afternoon all. So some interest seemingly out of nowhere once again. The Atlantic keeps looking like it will blast through, but never gets past D5. Bit like the easterly failures in reverse!!

I note the GEFS 06Z mean and the ECM 00Z mean:

     

All showing a continuation of an East European brick wall (to varying degrees), and a slight dive of the jet to the south

Now the most obvious solution to these is low pressure getting in and potentially stormy for a while - as the GEM op shows, and this GEFS member also shows:

     

But one can also imagine the jet pulling the pattern south like the ECM op and this member (still stormy):

  

or even further south:

Of course, if the models are holding back the pattern this far at T240, bearing in mind the past two weeks could they be too far east even then?

So the west / east battle goes on and on and on. Can we at last see the battle fought in a more favourable location for the UK??

In the short-term though, eyes on that storm at T240 as well - ECM, GFS and GEM ops all have it - uncanny. Could be nasty.

[bluearmy]

29 minutes ago, Purga said:

Of course we could always get this little number BA

Yes - there are some snow flurries forecast for early Thursday but that isn't the Atlantic 

[nick sussex]

 A westwards correction in the GFS12hrs output at T60hrs, also a bit more amplified upstream.

The key thing to look out for is no phasing between the low pressure exiting Newfoundland and the low near the UK towards T96hrs.

Edited January 24, 2017 by nick sussex

[Ali1977]

9 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

 A westwards correction in the GFS12hrs output at T60hrs, also a bit more amplified upstream.

The key thing to look out for is no phasing between the low pressure exiting Newfoundland and the low near the UK towards T96hrs.

Looking better, but we'll do v well not get those 2 phasing looking at the T72 chart.  I think we are all hoping for an undercut of sorts but thats going to be a struggle .

06z and 12z very similar at 84 so no move towards the UKMO or ECM.

Edited January 24, 2017 by Ali1977

[nick sussex]

12 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Looking better, but we'll do v well not get those 2 phasing looking at the T72 chart.  I think we are all hoping for an undercut of sorts but thats going to be a struggle .

06z and 12z very similar at 84 so no move towards the UKMO or ECM.

Upstream the GFS is more amplified, you'll note that the deep vorticity in purple hasn't been ejected so far se'wards, the GFS has made a partial backtrack but we still need to see if the Euros continue with the same trend.

[Ali1977]

2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Upstream the GFS is more amplified, you'll note that the deep vorticity in purple hasn't been ejected so far se'wards, the GFS has made a partial backtrack but we still need to see if the Euros continue with the same trend.

Yeah it's a move in the right direction and the jet stream is also another 100 miles or more further South, keep this up and it'll make it easier for heights to head from Europe NW later on maybe.

[Singularity]

Here I go again; EC monthly ens. spread offers good propagation signal such as Tamara suggests to look out for, questionable amplitude but plenty of scope for something handy in the Pacific to help us out. The mean is a bit slow for my liking though. Sorry to be so cryptic but I can't give too much away. I'm sure others can expand on this though 

Watching the GFS 12z roll out and it does not want to take that trough away from Iceland in a hurry, which narrows the area in which a bit of a ridge may establish if the upstream trough holds back for long enough. Encouraging though to see the Atlantic jet trajectory adjusted a tad further south of east from the 06z as of +96.

Edited January 24, 2017 by Singularity

[jvenge]

4 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Upstream the GFS is more amplified, you'll note that the deep vorticity in purple hasn't been ejected so far se'wards, the GFS has made a partial backtrack but we still need to see if the Euros continue with the same trend.

Looks further east on the other side as well though, Nick, which I would have thought wouldn't play out too well in arriving at a similar solution to ECM and GFS. So, moved in one part, but moved even further away in another.

[Day 10]

2 minutes ago, jvenge said:

Looks further east on the other side as well though, Nick, which I would have thought wouldn't play out too well in arriving at a similar solution to ECM and GFS. So, moved in one part, but moved even further away in another.

Looks like a move west to me???