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Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.


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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire

18Z GFS 2 days ago for the 24th Jan.

gfs-0-192.png?18

Tonights!

gfs-0-144.png?18

Makes you wonder if this is the end of the change in output with regards to the reliable timeframe or will this new trend gain momentum?

 

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Posted
  • Location: Chepstow Wales
  • Location: Chepstow Wales

What do Brian over on theweatheroutlook mean by this quote that i have copy and pasted in here ' where can we see this on the charts of when it could happen .

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   

Through Friday and the weekend high pressure remains dominant. It is expected to be cold in all regions and nighttime frost becomes increasingly widespread. On Sunday an upper level cold pool of air over the UK could lead to a few snow flurries.:cc_confused:

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Posted
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
  • Weather Preferences: cold snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,

Delete sorry wrong thread

Edited by fromey
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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
14 minutes ago, A Frayed Knot said:

What do Brian over on theweatheroutlook mean by this quote that i have copy and pasted in here ' where can we see this on the charts of when it could happen .

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   

Through Friday and the weekend high pressure remains dominant. It is expected to be cold in all regions and nighttime frost becomes increasingly widespread. On Sunday an upper level cold pool of air over the UK could lead to a few snow flurries.:cc_confused:

It's pretty self explanatory ?

it will be cold

low dew points

ther is an upper cold pool (fairly weak) around which adds to instability 

There could be a few snow flurries but I suspect 99% of us won't see one!

And we're talkin flurries - hardly worth worrying about

as far as the modelling is concerned - how long can the ridging hold on for?  Well the establishment of the vortex back in ne Canada should be enough to give the Atlantic the bit of oomph it needs to eventually get through. Sadly we look to be unable to get any  undercutting of the developing ridge to keep it high enough and prevent it sinking.  Good effort though from where we started.  

Edited by bluearmy
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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
1 minute ago, fromey said:

Are we now being to to the effects of this showing in the models? I know it's a forecast but the slowing so far must be having some kind of effect 

IMG_2249.JPG

The chart you are looking at is derived from the modelling so the models will respond to the slowdown as its part of them! 

remember all the models are depicting the atmosphere from the surface right to the top of the strat. they don't separate the trop and strat. If you aren't seeing evidence in the trop modelling of the strat slowdown then that's because the model doesn't evolve anything. it could be argued that the 12z op was showing a quick trop response at day 16. some ens members have been doing so but the vast majority are not (at the moment)

if the warming doesn't elicit a quick trop response then approaching mid Feb is the next time to look for some effects to downwell to the trop 

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

London Ensembles are a real cliffhanger this evening 

IMG_5530.GIF

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Posted
  • Location: Chepstow Wales
  • Location: Chepstow Wales
10 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

It's pretty self explanatory ?

it will be cold

low dew points

ther is an upper cold pool (fairly weak) around which adds to instability 

There could be a few snow flurries but I suspect 99% of us won't see one!

And we're talkin flurries - hardly worth worrying about

as far as the modelling is concerned - how long can the ridging hold on for?  Well the establishment of the vortex back in ne Canada should be enough to give the Atlantic the bit of oomph it needs to eventually get through. Sadly we look to be unable to get any  undercutting of the developing ridge to keep it high enough and prevent it sinking.  Good effort though from where we started.  

 Thanks @bluearmy now that make's sense .

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Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
1 hour ago, A Frayed Knot said:

What do Brian over on theweatheroutlook mean by this quote that i have copy and pasted in here ' where can we see this on the charts of when it could happen .

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   

Through Friday and the weekend high pressure remains dominant. It is expected to be cold in all regions and nighttime frost becomes increasingly widespread. On Sunday an upper level cold pool of air over the UK could lead to a few snow flurries.:cc_confused:

Here is that cold pool moving in Sunday, moving up from the south west ironically, if the cloud base is thick enough could have some flakes blowing in the breeze.

 

IMG_1786.GIF

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

GFS again suggesting the block puts up an almighty fight before succumbing to the Atlantic next week.

UKMO by comparison again looks flat - its certainly earning its reputation as the misery model at the moment! 

GFS still going for a noticeable spike in temps at 10PHa this morning-

now

gfsnh-10-12.png

gfsnh-10-324.png

1st of Feb

Edited by northwestsnow
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Posted
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
5 hours ago, Steve Murr said:

The addition of the upper air cold 'puddle' has added further excitement towards the weekend being that the small kink in the flow that brings about the change will have some moisture & instability with it- enough so for some wintry flurries along the western flank of the UK, I had highlighted this as being 'just' over knockers location however the risk has now extended North & East..

 

GFS 0z shows a distinctly cold weekend you never know

7pm friday

ukmaxtemp.png

7am Monday

ukmaxtemp.png

4pm sunday 'snow flurries anyone' ?

h850t850eu.png

 

Edited by stewfox
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Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl

ECM still showing the possibility of an easterly later on.

 

ECH1-192.gif.png

ECH1-216.gif.png

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Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
7 minutes ago, D.V.R said:

ECM still showing the possibility of an easterly later on.

 

ECH1-192.gif.png

ECH1-216.gif.png

Sorry, I just don't see it, possibility is a very loose word...it's possible we could get a northerly from there...what the ECM actually shows, and is the general theme over the last few days is a gale force southwesterly winds for the uk....as soon as low pressure takes over to the north east the better if we want to salvage something from this winter . 

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

Absolutely no chance of an easterly from those sort of charts...too much oomph to the NW.

I'm still not overly convinced by anything after day 5 or so, the models didn't handle the amplified pattern well, and I'm not sure about the progression later on. Head scratching time!

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

I can't see an easterly in the near future but considering how they have all underestimated the high who knows. The high just won't drift into a favourable position for us. Unless you like rather cold benign weather. Still more than enough time left. The output is more interesting than looking out the window for now. 

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Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
4 minutes ago, KTtom said:

Sorry, I just don't see it, possibility is a very loose word...it's possible we could get a northerly from there...what the ECM actually shows, and is the general theme over the last few days is a gale force southwesterly winds for the uk....as soon as low pressure takes over to the north east the better if we want to salvage something from this winter . 

There's no south-westerly showing in the reliable.. right?  I'm talking about trends and the ECM shows that there is a possibility of an easterly later on.. if you can't see that then fair enough.

What you sorry about?

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire

Trend of the morning runs - the block to our east putting up stronger resistance. The Atlantic hitting a brick wall. 

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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
3 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Trend of the morning runs - the block to our east putting up stronger resistance. The Atlantic hitting a brick wall. 

 

zonality-we-dont-cmpgpd.jpg

ECM1-240 (6).gif

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

We are a few tweeks away from a battleground scenario next week.A slight move north of the block could introduce se winds ahead of the Atlantic coming in.

Unlikely but looking at the ECM plausable IMHO..

 

.

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Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
3 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

GFS again suggesting the block puts up an almighty fight before succumbing to the Atlantic next week.

UKMO by comparison again looks flat - its certainly earning its reputation as the misery model at the moment! 

GFS still going for a noticeable spike in temps at 10PHa this morning-

now

gfsnh-10-12.png

gfsnh-10-324.png

1st of Feb

And the modelling of the SSW is relentless and getting closer.

gfsnh-10-204.png

By 204 it's in full swing, by 288 the vortex is getting that warm feeling.

gfsnh-10-288.png

Then by the end of the run, it has melted.

gfsnh-10-384-1.png

Winter follows. End of second week in February, I'll be driving back from Knocker country into the face of the 'Beast'......

Edited by bobbydog
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Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London

Morning all :)

Well, I see general agreement from the OP runs overnight and this morning for the cold and settled conditions to be eased away early next week in favour of a milder, more Atlantic based set up. Yes, the breakdown has been delayed 48 hours or so from the earlier output but by Wednesday next week it's hard to imagine an outcome other than milder air over the whole of the British Isles with rain approaching from the Atlantic.

We knew this would happen and it's going to have to be enjoyed/endured (delete as appropriate) for at least 14 days. I'm more than encouraged by what I'm seeing in the furthest fringes of GFS FI at this time.

The initial rebuild of the PV over NE Canada/Greenland in response to the Siberian warming may not be of too long duration or of great strength (whether it's an actual SSW or not is a question for others) but it will leave us under Atlantic domination for 10-14 days.

After that, I see signs of the PV weakening further and the "possibilities" for a pattern change - to what, I don't know, and, to stress, absolutely no guarantee such a change will be favourable for fans of snow or cold. We could quite easily finish up with a block bringing mild SW'lies and that would be that.

The next 7 days of model watching aren't going to be fun or pretty for those looking for winter but we have more than a third of "official" winter remaining and never rule out the possibility of lowland snow in early March - it's happened many times before.

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