Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

[Mucka]

UKMO not changing its tune either by the look of T96

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, Banbury said:

HP sinking on the GFS what this means later on who knows ?

It means a longer route to deep cold. 

Two options if we want cold...it either needed to retrogress as per 6z or it needs to bugger off as quick as possible. We do not under any circumstances want Euro heights becoming the main player again with the jet gaining the upper hand across the top. Can kiss goodbye to 2 weeks of Jan at least if that is what eventually transpires.

[knocker]

19 minutes ago, PerfectStorm said:

Much deeper cut off low, can't remember now if that's better. Stops the high sinking?

Actually I don't think those lows to the south are cut off as they keep getting topped up with energy sneaking down from the NW and they also divert quite a lot of energy from the southern arm of the jet and as such are quite significant players in all of this.

[Day 10]

120

[mulzy]

Just now, Day 10 said:

120

Sadly, UKMO rock solid in its progression.  Northerly looks out with this evolution but maybe an easterly?

[booferking]

UKMO holds its ground and could well smash them all interesting to see the ens & ecm  say later..

Edited December 30, 2016 by booferking

[Cheshire Freeze]

At this point on the 6z we were in a NW'ly....on this run we're in a S'ly

[Iceberg]

Here's the meto and gfs 12z at t120. 

Very different. 

Where they lead is any bodies guess. 

Just added the meto t120 from this morning 

Edited December 30, 2016 by Iceberg

[Ali1977]

1 minute ago, Day 10 said:

120

Kind of expected the UKMO to follow the GFS not the other way round, very dissapointing but typical I guess. Hopefully something good transpires beyond 144 

[Cheshire Freeze]

2 minutes ago, Iceberg said:

Here's the meto and gfs 12z at t120. 

Very different. 

Where they lead is any bodies guess. 

Ironic thing is, the UKMO could actually be better going forward than the GFS with the potential for an easterly going forward as I pointed out after the 0z UKMO run.

Either way, we're going to be looking well into FI for deep cold/snow on this GFS run.

Edited December 30, 2016 by CreweCold

[Day 10]

And 144

 

[bluearmy]

This is fun!

The evolutions west and east are both uncertain in gfs and ukmo

ukmo certainly keen to phase the Azores low with the northern arm and day 6 may reveal how it intends to evolve thereafter. If  it remains unclear then will be another 12 hours of hair pulling on here - still think ukmo will get to cold eventually 

[mountain shadow]

So after the short Northerly this weekend, we can forget the second Northerly. 

Its all about a Scandi High now in the 8 to 12 day timeframe.

Hats doffed to the UK ops run, GFS as ever not at the races.

[Snowmaggedon]

Just now, mountain shadow said:

So after the short Northerly this weekend, we can forget the second Northerly. 

Its all about a Scandi High now in the 8 to 12 day timeframe.

Hats doffed to the UK ops run, GFS as ever not at the races.

Forget the second Northerly based on one set of runs? *rolls eyes*

Why do folk take it as a given every time the charts don't show what we want?

[Weathizard]

Well! Very disappointing 12z's so far... There must be something in it as IN the GFS 6z ENS there were barely any (if any) that supported the UKMO evolution..

Typical

[Mucka]

6 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Ironic thing is, the UKMO could actually be better going forward than the GFS with the potential for an easterly going forward as I pointed out after the 0z UKMO run.

I admire your fortitude Crew.

UKMO does off the possibility of a Scandi high buillding but I can't see that as better than guaranteed stonking Northerly veering NE with -10 uppers and good prospect of an Easterly at the end of it anyway.

I am gutted by this afternoons output and I expect we will see more scatter among the ensembles, but then the margins are so small I still expect a good many to show the Northerly and decent Atlantic amplification.

There is still hope but this afternoons output is areal kick on the teeth for coldies so far. (All relative to what was on offer)

Still we can snatch victory from the jaws of defeat and GFS didn't phase that low after all it just caused Euro heights not to drain so we still get the amplification.

Edited December 30, 2016 by Mucka

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, mountain shadow said:

So after the short Northerly this weekend, we can forget the second Northerly. 

Its all about a Scandi High now in the 8 to 12 day timeframe.

Hats doffed to the UK ops run, GFS as ever not at the races.

Not only that, the entire ensemble suite! This is why I lend credence to what TEITS was saying the other day about following the ops in situations like this. Ensembles are next to useless and that's the 2nd or 3rd time we've seen this since November. If one of the big 3 doesn't agree at 144-192 range then have no faith in any output, even if the ensemble majority backs the op consensus!

[Day 10]

To compare GFS & UKMO 96 & 120.

FI?? today!!!

 

[bluearmy]

Don't think either ukmo or gfs have this sorted. 

Wait to see if ecm is consistent later. It may show a more likely way blending the output. The Azores low causing plenty headaches (like an ex TD in the summer)

[bobbydog]

Not sure this is a bad thing yet, OK it takes longer but that ridge is holding on...

[Cheshire Freeze]

3 minutes ago, Mucka said:

I admire your fortitude Crew.

UKMO does off the possibility of a Scandi high buillding but I can't see that as better than guaranteed stonking Northerly veering NE with -10 uppers and good prospect of an Easterly at the end of it anyway.

I am gutted by this afternoons output and I expect we will see more scatter among the ensembles, but then the margins are so small I still expect a good many to show the Northerly and decent Atlantic amplification.

There is still hope but this afternoons output is areal kick on the teeth for coldies so far. (All relative to what was on offer)

Should get the E'ly here too on the 12z GFS Mucka...just a touch later than the UKMO would bring it

To add to the confusion, the upstream pattern is actually more favourable than the 6z had it at the same time!

 

Edited December 30, 2016 by CreweCold

[Jonan92]

The main issue is the low next to Azores and how it interacts with the cold air from the north. This time it gets closer quite quickly and due to the interaction with the cold air it deepens fast and stop moving east. In the previous ran it took more time to interact with the cold air, giving it mroe time to move east, closer to Iberia.

[booferking]

1 minute ago, mountain shadow said:

So after the short Northerly this weekend, we can forget the second Northerly. 

Its all about a Scandi High now in the 8 to 12 day timeframe.

Hats doffed to the UK ops run, GFS as ever not at the races.

You can add the ECM & 38 EC ENS as matt hugo tweeted earlier not just the GFS & suit, and remember this is 1 RUN my friend.

[mountain shadow]

2 minutes ago, Snowmaggedon said:

Forget the second Northerly based on one set of runs? *rolls eyes*

Why do folk take it as a given every time the charts don't show what we want?

Because I am choosing to ignore the GFS . It is consistently garbage in modelling the weather in our islands when blocking is forecast. It always has been, upgrades included.

[Mucka]

Just now, CreweCold said:

Should get the E'ly here too on the 12z GFS Mucka...just a touch later than the UKMO would bring it

 

Yeah it is a good chart, I just thought UKMO would get in line and didn't expect GFS to move toward it so most of my disappointment is due to my own expectations getting ahead of me.

So long as the Azores low doesn't phase we should at least get decent amplification across the Atlantic and tbf last year that UKMO 144 would have been more than welcome.

It's all relative isn't it?

I have regathered my toys and regained my optimism.