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Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.


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Bearing in mind the GEFS were strongly in support of the GFS 0z op, no surprise the 6z maintains the theme, which is consistent, but different synoptics to the ECM:

D5 gfs-0-138.png  ECM 0zECM1-144 (1).gif

So big difference in uppers; 4-6c colder on the GFS. At 5 days one of the models is badly wrong again!

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Evening All For those of us who have been here for a long while there is times when you know you have to throw in the towel on chasing cold & times ( very rare ) when you 'just know' that the

Boom goodnight vienna

People being a bit harsh on Steve Murr, at least he has the balls to try and read and predict what may happen from his viewpoint rather than just posting what charts show.

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4 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Pretty big differences between GFS and ECM at t144

GFS 06z                                                        ECM 00z

GFSOPEU06_144_1.pngECMOPEU00_144_1.png

Who's your money on...

ECM,with high slightly further north at this point. About time gfs lead they way tho, please. Neither are great but gfs is preferable.

Edited by That ECM
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3 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

Today is 15th Jan 2017. 

Rewind back to 15th Jan 1991. The chart doesn't look anything to shout about does it?

And what happened 3 weeks later?

 

image.png

Show the chart please

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So GFS 06Z doesn't split the trough in the Atlantic very well or far enough west to keep us in an Eastley flow. Im not sure how accurate the jet stream forecasts are but at 144 hrs thats where the jet splits and strengthens the southern tracking jet, Im hoping this is correct to flatten the ridging Azores high which was modelled on the ECM 0z. 

gfs-5-144.png

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ECM is persistently dropping a trough closer to our east than GFS, which actually shuts down the easterly flow by eroding the eastern edge of the ridge extended through N Europe.

For late last week and again this weekend, ECM also dropped troughs down more sharply in this way, but this has proven erroneous hence we see no cold, snowy SE today for example.

So in all fairness we should see ECM trend toward GFS and keep more of an E flow to the UK with the ridge than seemingly orientated in a manner more likely to disrupt the troughs to our west with a low sort of sliding SE and opening the door to the cold air putting up a bit of a fight to at least delay the poleward transport of air becoming aligned with NW Europe in its crosshairs.

Trouble is, fairness has no relevance to the weather!

Longer-term, the stronger mid-Atlantic trough + Euro ridge signal in the ECM ens may be related to them seeing more of a phase 8 MJO contribution in the next week prior to the phase 1 action. Alas it seems the convective action will be too far east to bring phase 7 into play. 

Phases 2-3 don't support the Euro high idea so if EC ens are right in keeping the MJO more active as it propagates east then the notion of the Euro high being short-lived seems well-founded.  

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So the trend is clear, a warm up is on the cards of sorts, but what goes up must come down, and the ecm ensembles agree wrt 2m temps.

IMG_5461.GIF

Im pretty convinced though In a few days time we will see further interest for coldies, whether it verifies is another matter, but that's part of the fun right?

Edited by karlos1983
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Problem is though between now and 1991 a lot has changed in regards to Arctic ice melt and Sea surface temperatures particularly at northern latitudes where SST's are much higher and with a WQBO this year there is more cyclogenisis towards Greenland and towards Svarlbad (at times) and if I'm not mistaken a week or so before the infamous feb 1991 Scandi high 'built' there was quite a prevelant Arctic high for a time that aided and abetted high latitude blocking, something you see very little of now days.

All I see the last few winters is low pressure everywhere in the North Atlantic - this year not a prevelant jetstream as per 2013/14 and last winter but still strong enough particularly near Iceland/Greenland to stop any HLB from forming, anyway amazing we're only half way through winter as it feels like we should be into February with all the discussion about signals back in late October/November.

So far been a disappointing winter, question is years ago would we have been looking at a far better one?

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1 hour ago, Froze were the Days said:

Yes agree - certainly similarities between now and then, lets just hope we can get a decent SSW in a few weeks...Just love to see a decent wedge of high pressure at high latitudes, it is something we see little of particularly to our north east. Fingers crossed.

Here's hoping. The main difference I can see though is that the '91 high to the east is retrogressing north east whilst the Arctic high is nudging south to hold hands and join the fun. If anything, our current high is drifting the other way. 

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Signs in the models that the Atlantic wants to come back last week of January mild sw winds and rain at times will be a change not waiting around for a possible SSW

IMG_1714.PNG

Edited by shane303
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2 minutes ago, Jonathan Evans said:

Very tedious model watching at the moment - we are blocked but not favourably for us coldies ! Do we want a reset or can the present blocking retrogress up north ??

This winter just doesn't want to know retrogression,  especially up towards Greenland. I personally think our only chance of a severe spell this winter is a Scandinavian high. Whether we get one is a totally different matter. 

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I agree with @seaside 60 model watching is very good at the moment because none of us really know  what is going to happen, that could be said anytime I guess but with so much northern blocking and the states warming up I for one wont be writing Winter off just yet.

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2 minutes ago, Blizzardof82 said:

I agree with @seaside 60 model watching is very good at the moment because none of us really know  what is going to happen, that could be said anytime I guess but with so much northern blocking and the states warming up I for one wont be writing Winter off just yet.

TBH though most of us want Cold & Snow potential - I have a massive interest in weather but Cloudy and 9c doesn't really get me that excited. The present blocking is eating up precious mid-winter time. What will happen is that eventually our prevailing W/SW will be back - this looks likely towards the end of the 6-10 day period. 

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1 minute ago, Jonathan Evans said:

TBH though most of us want Cold & Snow potential - I have a massive interest in weather but Cloudy and 9c doesn't really get me that excited. The present blocking is eating up precious mid-winter time. What will happen is that eventually our prevailing W/SW will be back - this looks likely towards the end of the 6-10 day period. 

I agree.  A zonal return looks very likely now in 7 to 8 days time.  It's a shame as I feel like we have had many chances to bag decent cold spells this winter but always fell at the last hurdle. In some ways it is even worse than those zonal winters as at least then we are not given so much hope and potential. 

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Maybe a return to the Atlantic for a week will reset the models for February not going give up on winter yet, but at the same time I don't think people should go to much into the chance of a SSW happening, as we all should know it does not bring cold and blocked conditions it just increases the chance and as the last few weeks show that does not always go in our  favour as mainland Europe had the best bit of that now let's see what the 1200 GFS brings , let the update commence.  

Edited by shane303
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