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Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.


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Posted
  • Location: High Wycombe
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Cold.
  • Location: High Wycombe
3 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

gfs-0-198.png?12

Anything possible from here really

 

This has been a consistent feature now for a few runs. The migration towards Greenland could produce wonders next weekend and beyond.

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Posted
  • Location: Tonbridge, Kent
  • Location: Tonbridge, Kent
4 minutes ago, phil nw. said:

Yes was just thinking that Nick.We are seeing the pattern retrogressing as we would want but about 10 degrees latitude too far south to get an easterly then a northerly.

 

This GFS run is awful, we are stuck between two patterns.

Edited by warrenb
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
5 minutes ago, phil nw. said:

Yes was just thinking that Nick.We are seeing the pattern retrogressing as we would want but about 10 degrees latitude too far south to get an easterly then a northerly.

 

I think whats happened Phil looking at the MJO link on Singularitys post is that initially the move out of the COD was going to be slower, it looks to have sped up over the last few days and so the original ECM outputs which had the easterly didn't take that into account. What we wanted was the easterly and then retrogression, instead here we've got a bit of both but halfway solutions on each.

The MJO which has done bxgger all for a month suddenly decides to shoot into action when we wanted it to take its time!

Edited by nick sussex
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

GFS moving toward the flatter UKMO this afternoon but this may not be all bad news if you weren't excited by a slack continental flow.

It should allow for the PV to more quickly set up to our NE and the trough will have less work to do to push South.

Obviously an Easterly with strong retrogression and Greenland high would be preferable bu that has never really shown itself as likely.

The lower latitude but more Westerly based high should offer a better chance of Atlantic blocking and North Easterly setting up in FI.

If GFS and ECM end up going more the UKMO route then we may lose a cold continental flow but we likely gain a better chance of cold reloading from the N and NE.

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
1 minute ago, warrenb said:

This GFS run is awful, we are stuck between to patterns.

Yes it's frustrating for coldies warren.We can see the Siberian vortex poised in week 2 but on this run the Atlantic ridging is collapsing and we look like going the way of the earlier ensembles.

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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
6 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

I think whats happened Phil looking at the MJO link on Singularitys post is that initially the move out of the COD was going to be slower, it looks to have sped up over the last few days and so the original ECM outputs which had the easterly didn't take that into account. What we wanted was the easterly and then retrogression, instead here we've got a bit of both but halfway solutions on each.

The MJO which has done bxgger all for a month suddenly decides to shoot into action when we wanted it to take its time!

Not my strong point Nick but the low amplitude state of the gwo maybe another influence on the current nwp

gfsgwo_1.png

so we get a modified mjo pattern?

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

Make of gfs 12z what you will!!???

A quite bizzarre' child lost in the woods run tbf!!!

Its a v-odd run as evolution goes.

And can only hope the ecm 12z may shed a little light...one way or the other? !

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Posted
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Varied and not extreme.
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
8 minutes ago, Mucka said:

GFS moving toward the flatter UKMO this afternoon but this may not be all bad news if you weren't excited by a slack continental flow.

It should allow for the PV to more quickly set up to our NE and the trough will have less work to do to push South.

Obviously an Easterly with strong retrogression and Greenland high would be preferable bu that has never really shown itself as likely.

The lower latitude but more Westerly based high should offer a better chance of Atlantic blocking and North Easterly setting up in FI.

If GFS and ECM end up going more the UKMO route then we may lose a cold continental flow but we likely gain a better chance of cold reloading from the N and NE.

 

 

Although I'm a much less experienced model follower than yourself, I agree wholeheartedly and consider this a bettr route for cold enthusiasts.  Weak conntinental flows seem to bring those of us in the east low cloud and a damp, raw cold, and, ffurther inland, they appear to offer rather bland surface conditions.  If the vortex moves to the Siberian side, we might have the chance of blocking to our west, and, I presume that this set-up would reduce the chances of a powerful zonal jet, as this would require a substantial lobe to remain over the eastern US/Canada?

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

Encouraging again in low res as the op again throws a big enough ridge to scupper the attempted Atlantic onslaught which disrupts in the end (and the added consequential bonus of no euro heights establishing)

there were hints of a mean scandi upper ridge forming in two weeks on one of the earlier ens suites - so it isn't that random an ending 

Edited by bluearmy
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
9 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Although I'm a much less experienced model follower than yourself, I agree wholeheartedly and consider this a bettr route for cold enthusiasts.  Weak conntinental flows seem to bring those of us in the east low cloud and a damp, raw cold, and, ffurther inland, they appear to offer rather bland surface conditions.  If the vortex moves to the Siberian side, we might have the chance of blocking to our west, and, I presume that this set-up would reduce the chances of a powerful zonal jet, as this would require a substantial lobe to remain over the eastern US/Canada?

Yes it could allow for a cleaner transition and ultimately stronger Atlantic block than we have generally seen modeled by GFS and ECM in FI.

We did see ECM originally model the ideal set up of a higher latitude high retrogress toward Greenland but once a lower lat high was being modeled than that, then generally it is more important to have the high further West and have energy mire cleanly transfer East over the top. 

Sounds a bit counter intuitive and of course it would be possible to get a cold pattern allowing for a high further East that manages a continental flow but generally Atlantic blocking is more likely impeded by energy messily transferring East than a cleaner transition.

Of course we would need to maintain an amplified signal upstream otherwise we just lose blocking completely.

Edited by Mucka
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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Change of mind again by the GFS keeping the cold away until lala land. A disappointing run so lets see what the ECM comes up with.

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Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside

The trend is still to build heights to the NW, not bad.

gfsnh-0-168.pngECH1-192.GIF.png

Interesting ECM to come later

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Posted
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea, South East Essex.
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea, South East Essex.

To me it looks like a window of opportunity around day 8-10 (as per) to get Atlantic heights in a favourable position to our NW.

All depends on the modelling of LP exiting the Nova Scotia/Newfoundland region day 6-7 (as per)

I will be keeping an eye on this area as we go through early next week...we need a break though for sure and we just dont seem to be getting it this winter. Plenty of potential, but little to show for it.

Edited by Southender
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Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire

Once again the UKMO model was first to spot a 'problem' with a potential cold spell.

It's proving to be the model of the winter so far.

If it's not on board it ain't happening!

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex

Once again even with the PV moving towards Siberia we are left with too much risidual energy around Greenland, very frustrating. Theres still plenty of chances though, I certainly don't think the GFS run is awful.

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Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex

With its tendency to over amplify I wouldn't be surprised to see a barnstorming northerly / Greenland high on the ECM tonight.

Meanwhile deeper into FI on GEFS there is a big signal for a return to Euro heights. Too far away to worry about but it wouldn't be a big shock as the backstory to this winter has been this signal.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
12 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Once again even with the PV moving towards Siberia we are left with too much risidual energy around Greenland, very frustrating. Theres still plenty of chances though, I certainly don't think the GFS run is awful.

It is the most frustrating run I have seen, see that little band of warm surface temperatures on the dutch coast, that's where I live, whereas the west coast of france and even portugal get a deep cold!

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield,754ft ASL
  • Location: Sheffield,754ft ASL
20 minutes ago, Johnp said:

Once again the UKMO model was first to spot a 'problem' with a potential cold spell.

It's proving to be the model of the winter so far.

If it's not on board it ain't happening!

IIRC, wasn't it the ECM which picked up the cold spell way way way before the UKMO and GFS, with both of those flipping and changing a lot and eventually were pulled towards it kicking and screaming?

ECM never showed raging easterlies or buckets amount of snow. It's actually verified pretty damn good so far and consistently too.

Also, we are currently in a cold spell and will be next week. What happens down the line is still up in the air. It wasn't even until T72 when we got models starting to agree on things for the past few days

Edited by smhouston
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Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire
14 minutes ago, smhouston said:

IIRC, wasn't it the ECM which picked up the cold spell way way way before the UKMO and GFS, with both of those flipping and changing a lot and eventually were pulled towards it kicking and screaming?

ECM never showed raging easterlies or buckets amount of snow. It's actually verified pretty damn good so far and consistently too.

Also, we are currently in a cold spell and will be next week. What happens down the line is still up in the air. It wasn't even until T72 when we got models starting to agree on things for the past few days

Considering UKMO only goes out to 6/7 days it won't ever be the first to spot a cold spell so that's a bit unfair!

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland
  • Location: Ireland
35 minutes ago, Johnp said:

Once again the UKMO model was first to spot a 'problem' with a potential cold spell.

It's proving to be the model of the winter so far.

If it's not on board it ain't happening!

It has also been wrong by showing an overly amplified pattern in recently too.

No model has been perfect.

Always best to look at all the major models instead of focusing on one.

 

 

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