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Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.


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Evening All For those of us who have been here for a long while there is times when you know you have to throw in the towel on chasing cold & times ( very rare ) when you 'just know' that the

Boom goodnight vienna

People being a bit harsh on Steve Murr, at least he has the balls to try and read and predict what may happen from his viewpoint rather than just posting what charts show.

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By 264 it's turned into a cold toppler, would be a very snowy few days and exciting. Pattern developing appears to be snow till Sunday (not everywhere!), building to a coldish easterly but dry with a reload from the N later. Exciting times.

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6 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Cracking stuff. 

Blocking through tip of Greenland through eastern seaboard. 

Russian 'partial' ridge flexing...putting uk in perfect placement for fun and games...

Let's hope its a notable trend that keeps evolvin!!!!

gfsnh-0-252-1.png

Of coarse greenland block is a possibility this run though is gfs 6z we need more consistent from other models I'm sceptical of gfs run.

Although beautiful eye candy 

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Without that upper ridge in early fi, you can see what would have happened as the Atlantic strengthened

this run illustrates well the point I was making earlier about getting some ridging in the 8/12 day period - 

 

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incredible potential and with Siberian high lurking at the end of the out put , february looks very interesting. If vortex does help at end of January , this looks like the most exciting charts for many years. What i really like is the timing of the year for this et up. I know  2010 was good but if it occurs in early february this could beat  2010. 

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Very nice GFS 06z FI with most of Europe and a good swathe of the UK under snow cover

GFSOPEU06_252_47.png

Just to cheer folks up of course.

It will be interesting to see how the 'northerly reload' scenario plays out in future runs.

Despite the extended EPS and EC 46 etc, I still think the most accurate guides we have are the medium term NWP output models.

The other tools are certainly not without merit but we really can't rely on anything further than 7-10 days at best with our chaotic and fascinating atmosphere.

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Without wanting to be a party pooper - I would again exercise caution here, as this 6z run will undoubtedly be one of the colder members of the set. Remember 2 days ago? That soon vanished into thin air!

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On 31 December 2016 at 17:51, doctor32 said:

Very dissapointing the past few model runs regarding the pattern following weekend, of course things will change in the coming days... for better or worse (who knows)

spell of heavy rain overnight then colder air flooding south with showers becoming more widespread for a time tomorrow, some wintry inland.

Then back to the usual dry rather boring weather next week.

Any how, hope everyone in here has a nice evening and all the best for 2017! :drunk-emoji:

The 06.charts remind me somewhat of those around Chrismas 1962 when high pressure bringing very cold dry weather collapsed as a new high moved North Eastward towards Iceland,a long way to go but I am enjoying the eye candy.

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4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Great post from Stewart but the road is fraught with less cold solutions along the way - the envelope would go from very mild long draw sou'wester to a repeat of late Jan/early Feb from some of the memorable winters of the seventies and sixties 

those only seeing cold over the horizon on the current week 2 modelling need to soften their expectations as a spell of zonal less cold conditions seems strongly favoured. But it may not last too long if GP's musings verify.

Quite - but I think any of us would accept a return to a "normal" period if we ended up with Feb 1991 along the way (which was spectacular but relatively brief).

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great watching the models unfold atm and a fair point made by bluearmy.Tbh although December was disappointing after such early promise the Atlantic never really bulldozed through on a consistent basis like the previous 3 winters.Areas of interest that i will be looking at is what happens around the Eastern Seaboard,can we keep lower heights over the Med and the influence of the Russian/Siberian high.Also the modelling of the PV over to Siberia would be of potential help to NW Europe.We do need a lot to go right for us to experience a proper cold spell but as the GFS 6z proved this morning it is possible.I have just witnessed my first snowfall for 4 years and it was magical to see it really coming down albeit for only 2 hours yesterday evening but in that time we got about 2 inchs. I will continue to watch(and pray) with great interest how the models move in January.  

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28 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Great post from Stewart but the road is fraught with less cold solutions along the way - the envelope would go from very mild long draw sou'wester to a repeat of late Jan/early Feb from some of the memorable winters of the seventies and sixties 

those only seeing cold over the horizon on the current week 2 modelling need to soften their expectations as a spell of zonal less cold conditions seems strongly favoured. But it may not last too long if GP's musings verify.

Can ask a question where do you see spell of zonal weather because going what I can see within the models no zonal for next two weeks or so or am I missing something.

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11 minutes ago, jvenge said:

A little surprising the 0z and 6z didn't excite a few more people here today. Both showing colder temperatures in the medium term and nothing mild in the longer term.

We're getting spoilt now that's why. I'm remaining optimistic, the models continue to show weather unlike anything in the past few years. Fascinating times ahead. 

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gefsens850London0.png

The 6z OP was one of the colder solutions through day 10-14 as expected...though not entirely without support. There is still a fair amount of variance even at D2/3, so obviously extrapolations from this will lead to big differences ahead. It literally could go either way.
 

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2 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

It's looking good, IMO...A run stacked with building blocks. Anything even approaching that northerly, will do for many, I guess?

Are the blocks building some potential Ed? ;) But seriously, beautiful output for the UK compared to the horrors of the last few years.

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2 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

gefsens850London0.png

The 6z OP was one of the colder solutions through day 10-14 as expected...though not entirely without support. There is still a fair amount of variance even at D2/3, so obviously extrapolations from this will lead to big differences ahead. It literally could go either way.
 

Post this weekend, majority of members close to -5 on that chart all the way to 25th January. Great starting point.  A few runs required over this weekend to really see if it can hold on to these sort of outputs beyond next weekend.

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