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Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.


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Evening All For those of us who have been here for a long while there is times when you know you have to throw in the towel on chasing cold & times ( very rare ) when you 'just know' that the

Boom goodnight vienna

People being a bit harsh on Steve Murr, at least he has the balls to try and read and predict what may happen from his viewpoint rather than just posting what charts show.

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1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

eps in that 9/12 day period remain important - will they continue to head towards west based neg NAO with mildest  sou'wester across nw Europe or can we get some features established in that few days which will put the northern arm on a different track. 

Judging by the winter so far and the desire for that high pressure slug to our South or South West, I know where I'd put my money - of course that might not happen, but the pattern of Dec and early Jan does rather imply that the underlying ocean & atmospheric anomalies currently favour it.  

 

 

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ECM Ensemble mean is quite a bit milder than the operational. I can't see the individual members, but one assumes that the operation must have been one of the coldest for UK from day 7 onwards.

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Help me out here....Can someone please show me where/why  a western based NAO is so bad for us in the extended. First we do not want the PV over N/E Canada now it seems even that is no good.

ECH1-240.GIF?13-12

gfsnh-0-234.png

ECH0-240.GIF?13-12

gfsnh-1-222.png

Any further than this is mega La La land

Bit of action up above too in the extended if you run through.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=300&mode=10&carte=1

 

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Well looking at the GFS 0z, it's a fractional miss on a snowy easterly for the east and se, cold uppers retained from Tuesday onwards. A nudge is all it would take for some to get in on the action of the Franco Spanish alliance. It's an easterly but it's a dry one as it stands. Dry and cold in the se per meto update. Time to look norwest to Greenland and hope things stay conducive. So close.......

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I think models  are looking ok for cold maybe colder for south east with  chance of snow.  To many folk on here are looking for a day  after tomorrow with ten feet off snow and temperatures of -10 day time Max's .. what  i can see is a cold wintery outlook a lot better then last year that's for sure.

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Actually, the ECM ensembles never offered anything much more easterly than is being forecast right now. Compare the last 6 ECM 00Z means for next Wednesday:

EDM1-120.GIF?13-12  EDM1-144.GIF?00  EDM1-168.GIF?00  EDM1-192.GIF?00  EDM1-216.GIF?00  EDM1-240.GIF?00

Apart from the D10 chart, that's a very strong showing from the ECM mean chart (if it turns out that way)

 

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JetOrientationDesires-EC00z13Janfor21stO

Another one of my annotations. The ECM 00z, like several runs before it, is very keen on the blue scenario which helps us to avoid a 'true' west based negative NAO - an example of a locked-in pattern overriding a large-scale forcing on a regional scale. The EC42 I can only imagine tended to follow the red scenario which would be truly painful.

You'd think there could be another scenario in which LP moves east into Europe, but unless the MJO trends strongly toward phase 7 (i.e. Pacific component of forcing is both stronger and further west than the models currently go for), the door looks to be shut on that idea.

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The sou'wester solution gaining traction on the extended eps

In fact, quite a strong low anomoly takes root just to our west for a few days 

the hope for coldies is that the op can head In a different direction late on which will subsequently move the ens

think the upcoming s scandi ridge which was not seen by any ens suite (just a few members ) - if some heights can hang back into the n Atlantic from the Canadian ridge then the Low heights may may be pushed into a more southerly track and those euro heights can be pushed further east - looks unlikely though 

Edited by bluearmy
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43 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Help me out here....Can someone please show me where/why  a western based NAO is so bad for us in the extended. First we do not want the PV over N/E Canada now it seems even that is no good.

In highly summarised form - a lot of west-based negative NAO periods in midwinter see a feisty lobe of the polar vortex being pushed out of the U.S. and into the mid-Atlantic, near the Azores, with a great deal of cold air following suit. The greatly increased temperature gradient in that area then fires up the jet stream which typically tracks NE from the Azores to the UK.

What the models are showing in the 7-10+ day range, though, is notably different in that the vortex deserts the area for Siberia several days beforehand, taking most of the cold air with it. So there's little to fire up the jet in the mid-Atlantic. Frankly it seems that the typical SW-NE jet into the UK with Euro High scenario should have a hard time establishing - but I can see how it could still happen IF there is a particularly strong height rises across Greenland from Canada that throws cold air into the mid-Atlantic from that region, as the GFS 00z shows.

In this case, the tendency so far this winter for the models to overcook height rises building across Greenland from Canada might, funnily enough, be something we really need to see play out again! :blink2:

Edit: @bluearmy any sign in the extended EPS that the low might trend east with time? Just thinking about whether, if the worst comes to the worst for week after next, we'd have much of a shot at getting on the cold side again by month's end or thereabouts. Cheers :good:

Edited by Singularity
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Interesting that 850's are aligned tight to the high at-8...

And highlights the disorganized' angle if heights. ..

Its very-very knife edged and interesting even v-early on this morning s 6z....

gfs-1-78.png

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Energy going under the block this time from UKMO at 96h? Would be a significant change from yesterday's run.

UW96-21.GIF?13-10

EDIT - probably not. But what's happened to the rest of UKMO this morning? Nothing after 96?

Edited by Catacol
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1 minute ago, frosty ground said:

gfs-0-204.png?6

A run with lots of Interest Cold air moving down from the south East..

 

 

Potential Greenie HP developing. I mentioned earlier, the HP of Greenland slackens off next Tuesday / Wednesday. The setup is primed for it. Keep touching wood!

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Cracking stuff. 

Blocking through tip of Greenland through eastern seaboard. 

Russian 'partial' ridge flexing...putting uk in perfect placement for fun and games...

Let's hope its a notable trend that keeps evolvin!!!!

gfsnh-0-252-1.png

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