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Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.


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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

    Pv on the move! This is a trend we have seen for awhile. Not a lot NW to come and flatten the pattern. 

    IMG_8222.PNG

    IMG_8223.PNG

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
    1 hour ago, CreweCold said:

    How's this for a 240 hour pressure anomaly :wink:

    gensnh-21-5-240.png

    This is the ensemble MEAN

    That's the first time this winter that the EC46 has gained short-range support for its ideas on ridging in that area.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL

    Not a lot of comments this morning, was a good GFS but the ECM not quite as good as lately this morning although still cold.

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    Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex

    Morning all - GEFS looking very good this a.m. with plenty of members breaching the -10 level

    GFSENS00_52_0_205.png

    Happy model watching today - ECM still solid & fascinating period for us all ATM.:cold:

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    Posted
  • Location: North Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms / Sunshine / Snow
  • Location: North Bristol
    1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

    Not a lot of comments this morning, was a good GFS but the ECM not quite as good as lately this morning although still cold.

    Many of us are getting ready for work and eating our coco pops. :laugh:

    It is going to be an interesting day, both short range in terms of todays prospects and then looking further ahead :)

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    Posted
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK

    The latest 06z GFS run showing the same consistency as yesterdays same time run. Important 300 mb wind flow shows core high pressure aligning for a Easterly flow into much of England and Wales. All aided by a developing upper trough that will move from NE TO SW in the continental flow.

    c

    Morning all. My favourite chart of the morning from ECM for the middle of next week. Plenty of cold air in that Euro flow with bands of snow associated with minor troughs. The deepest of cold uppers not far from the SE of England but surface flow will keep temps close to freezing or below. Outwardly it would appear to be dry for Southern Britain  but the kinks in the isobars would produce some snow showers at times. Very hard to forecast exact timings and locations but will be worth watching developments next week. Anyway , nice charts for most , plenty of snow for the Alps and hopefully the best cold spell for you lot for a number of years starting to evolve today.

    C

    ECMOPME00_144_2.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset

    Putting aside will the Easterly (a PC airmass next week looks a fairly safe bet now) be dry or snowy (or more likely somewhere inbetween), the signs are all there for a 2 week UK cold spell. Could it be, for once, the timing falls in our favour!?

    One of those ultra rare times when im glad to be on the South Coast in an impending cold period (ref the Easterly).

    Thereafter the door is thrown bang wide open to Greenland heights. I suspect pictures of sausages could frequent this forum more than squirrels in the next week or so.

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    Posted
  • Location: North Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms / Sunshine / Snow
  • Location: North Bristol
    59 minutes ago, metaltron said:

    Ah ok so if the control and op are different then ensemble spread is most likely to be caused by resolution, whereas if they are similar the ensemble spread is most likely to be caused by starting data. Think I've got it. Thanks!

    Not always no. They have to be compared to each other, as well as the ensembles apreads to seek a conclusion. 

    For example, say a majority cluster was following the op, with the control more of an outlier. This would suggest that the lower resolution of the control is not picking up higher res details and therefore less likely to be the correct outcome. But again, before disregarding the control and any nearby cluster, the overall synoptic patterns need to be reviewed in line to make a judgement.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wombwell, South Yorkshire (75m / 246ft ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Summer Sunshine / Winter Snow
  • Location: Wombwell, South Yorkshire (75m / 246ft ASL)

    Solid model agreement on this mornings runs for no Atlantic for next week.  Very cold and slack winds likely from Northern England Northwards but the possibility of something a little more interesting from the East as you go Midlands South.

    Still plenty of time for changes especially with hints of a Greenie high beginning to appear in FI!  

    Needless to say the summary is cold to very cold!  :cold: 

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    Posted
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking low pressure in winter. Hot and thundery in the summer
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire

    Still a few uncertainties regarding the exact position of the high next week. Hoping for a little riggle room to push it north a bit but either way it's looking very cold for England and Wales probably Scotland also with surface conditions really playing there part under still conditions. Get the cold in place first and the snow will come normally. Little disturbances or features coming up against the block been fueled off the low pressure to our south is a genuine possibility so worry not about ppn when it's 5 days away. 

    Bit gutted the ukv4 has downgraded the snow today but it seems the met have modified it significantly in there forecasts because it's still quite snowy for some on the beeb.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne
  • Location: Eastbourne
    2 minutes ago, snowbob said:

    Still a little time for today to change

    reckon it will be a complete now cast situation

    Without doubt a nowcast situation.  I've always doubted a significant snow event from this and the models are behaving the way they always do in this sort of situation.  I suspect snow will be confined to upland areas across the South East, with some local exceptions based on precip intensity.

    And the model runs I've woken to this morning are very nice if you like the cold.

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    Good looking model output this morning, the current cold shot with snow for some, plenty of ice and frost before briefly milder sun / mon then turning progressively colder from the east.:cold-emoji: 

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    Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
    36 minutes ago, Luke Attwood said:

    Yes how cold..will it be if the ECM is correct?

    yes quite cold...colder than average

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    Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

    Let's not forget that with an easterly even with -5,-6 uppers over a frozen continent would deliver very cold conditions indeed, and any precip would be more than likely to be snow. The ECM this morning is a belter, with the UKMO well on board now also. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking low pressure in winter. Hot and thundery in the summer
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
    12 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

    Good looking model output this morning, the current cold shot with snow for some, plenty of ice and frost before briefly milder sun / mon then turning progressively colder from the east.:cold-emoji: 

    Yes I was hoping the mild blip will be squeezed out all together but it's really only going to be a 24 hr affair so not to worry.

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    Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
    52 minutes ago, That ECM said:

    Pv on the move! This is a trend we have seen for awhile. Not a lot NW to come and flatten the pattern. 

    IMG_8222.PNG

    IMG_8223.PNG

    Just need to hope it doesn't leave any little lobes hanging around, as even that can spoil our fun and has done in previous years.

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    Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
    39 minutes ago, Luke Attwood said:

    Yes how cold..will it be if the ECM is correct?

    The website yr.no uses ECM data to produce forecasts and has nice graphs and meteograms as well. It has an option to change languages from Norwegian at the top of the page. Should update around 8:00am.

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    After one of the most longwinded sagas of recent years the models are now converging on a solution although theres still room for some smaller changes regarding the depth of cold into the UK.

    Overall a slack easterly looks likely for the UK , a little stronger to the se with low pressure running around the block and this seems to be where the uncertainty is going to occur with the exact track of this and whether we could see this trended further nw which would allow the high to get a bit further north.

    The Atlantic looks very uninterested in trying to break through and the question going forward is whether the high retrogresses towards Greenland, given recent years we have to be a bit wary of outputs showing the complete removal of the PV from there in the longer timeframe, often a little lobe has been left behind.

    Barring a  milder blip over the weekend it looks cold to very cold for the next ten days which is something we thought might never happen given the winter upto this point.

    Snow chances past the weekend are difficult to pin down because we're still not sure exactly where the high will eventually set up and the strength of flow into the UK and cold uppers. At the moment the more favoured location would be towards the se however theres suggestions that the flow might turn more ese later and so for the sw of England theres still the chance that if we see sufficient cold air this could generate some snow showers off the Channel.

    Anyway still a lot to be resolved in terms of the exact synoptics for next week.

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    Snow is now odd's on in London tomorrow hitting 23/23 on the snow row

    gefsens850London0.png

    A lengthy period of  below zero 850's too

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    Before we even get to next weeks potential we have a wintry spell knocking on the door with snow, ice and frosts showing on the Gfs 00z. There is a risk of heavy snow later today across the s / se and most of the UK has a good chance of some snow showers during the next few days and a cold weekend coming up..Enjoy :- )

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    C__Data_Users_DefApps_AppData_INTERNETEXPLORER_Temp_Saved Images_00_54_uk2mtmpmin.png

    C__Data_Users_DefApps_AppData_INTERNETEXPLORER_Temp_Saved Images_00_63_uk2mtmp.png

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    C__Data_Users_DefApps_AppData_INTERNETEXPLORER_Temp_Saved Images_00_90_preciptype.png

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
    5 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

    Snow is now odd's on in London tomorrow hitting 23/23 on the snow row

    gefsens850London0.png

    A lengthy period of  below zero 850's too

    That's quite an incredible drop in the 500 temps, not often you see that go up and down that quickly. Often the precip is gone before that colder air has a chance to tuck in behind. In this case it looks good for the undercut, these rain to snow events are always fun to watch unfold.

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    Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

    Well the Arctic air is on it's way south now and snow has fallen in many areas down to N.England already.Today/tomorrow places further south are liable to see some too so it's a case of watching the media forecasts and radar now as a couple of features are involved,one coming across the south today and another later tonight and into tomorrow coming down the eastern side of the UK.

    The fax below for midnight tonight show today's low just moving away into continent and the next disturbance heading into ne Scotland to come south overnight.

    PPVE89.gif?31415

     

    Models seem to be firming up on cold returning early next week after a brief milder spell,Sun/Mon-.this time from the east

    The fax for Sunday showing the brief warm up and the ecm chart for day 5 bringing in the cold from the east.

    PPVL89.gif?31415ECM0-120.GIF?12-12

    Ens means are looking in good agreement now for this cold block to hold at least the next week.

    gens-21-1-168.pngEDM1-168.GIF?12-12

    gefs 2m graph for C.England

    graphe6_1000_264_91___.gif

    It's looking quite dry at the moment but with bitterly cold surface temperatures and hard frosts but if it develops like easterlies of the past little disturbances moving west creating snow showers can crop up later on especially if the flow strengthens from deepening low pressure over S.Europe-something to look for.

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    The s / se has a good chance of a covering of snow later today as the rain turns to sleet and then heavy wet snow and tonight becomes very icy and frosty, there is also a risk of snow tomorrow morning in the SE and followed by further snow showers as a very cold Nly airstream develops..then further snow risk on Sunday for the east / southeast..all this is on the Gfs 00z!..Bank:D

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    Posted
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Storms and Snow
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
    19 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

    The s / se has a good chance of a covering of snow later today as the rain turns to sleet and then heavy wet snow and tonight becomes very icy and frosty, there is also a risk of snow tomorrow morning in the SE and followed by further snow showers as a very cold Nly airstream develops..then further snow risk on Sunday for the east / southeast..all this is on the Gfs 00z!..Bank:D

     

    I completely agree that is if you are following the GFS, however the met I believe using the UKMO? States a period of sleet/snow moving south on Friday, but from then on temps are expected to rise up to 9C on Sunday! They haven't gone into next week however 

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