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Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.


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1 minute ago, Snowy L said:

Terrible downgrade for Friday morning snow event. 300 mile shift East, only the east coast seeing any meaningful ppn.

 

 

GFSOPEU18_36_4.png

Plenty of time for that to change

Tomorrow isn't even sorted yet

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Its only early in the outputs at T72hrs but this is key if you want to get something like the ECMs output.

Note the more amplitude in that low to the sw of Greenland, the circled black area as you can see on the earlier ECM had less energy spilling east compared to the GFS 12hrs:

ECM 12hrs T72hrs                                        GFS12hrs T72hrs

ECH1-72.gifgfsnh-0-72.png

 

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4 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

Terrible downgrade for Friday morning snow event. 300 mile shift East, only the east coast seeing any meaningful ppn.

 

 

GFSOPEU18_36_4.png

Due to the nature of the event, that's actually an upgrade for many including me as the mild sector is further west.

You win some you loose some.

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GFS 18z already showing more amplification of the high which is a trend we've seen throughout today, glad it's continuing! Fridays Eastern side snow event has shifted East, perhaps a side effect of a more amplified high though? Might not necessarily be a bad thing to miss Fridays snow event if it means better synoptics going forward

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9 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

Terrible downgrade for Friday morning snow event. 300 mile shift East, only the east coast seeing any meaningful ppn.

 

 

GFSOPEU18_36_4.png

Not terrible for me, an upgrade. Can IMBY comments go to the regional thread???

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The pub run is looking like ANOTHER small upgrade early on, lets see how long we lose the below freezing 850s from the SE in the warm sector later this weekend. This looks more like the ECM.

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14 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

The pub run is looking like ANOTHER small upgrade early on, lets see how long we lose the below freezing 850s from the SE in the warm sector later this weekend. This looks more like the ECM.

I would say we will be close to 0 hours on this run hopefully- ECM max was -3...

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The cut line looks in great shape here & the carved scandi heights are sooo much better- ECM esque...

IMG_1561.PNG

So much sharper tonight that now that slider is Snow in the SE

IMG_1562.PNG

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12 minutes ago, Glenn Redwood said:

When is that for Steve?

 

Monday (102-108) - the 12z had the 0c isotherm over near debilt

now the 18z has the -4c line backed west over the SE - hence the snow....

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2 minutes ago, Hotspur61 said:

Just seen bbc news 24 weather forecast and very uninspiring.Is this recorded as not showing particulary cold weather after Saturday although they did mention Wintry showers for the East from midweek onwards.

Seems in line with the ukmo model and then a slack easterly to follow. I think they are more concerned with dealing with tomorrow evening rather than worrying about early next week! 

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Wow what an upgrade at 90 hours uppers wise!!!-8 upper temps were in the north sea on the 12z but now they have moved so far west its in the east midlands!!if that continues expect a big snow event down the spine of england come sunday!!

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11 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

I would say we will be close to 0 hours on this run hopefully- ECM max was -3...

Correct, so in the SE on the 06z we had positive 850s for 48 hours before continental flow, 12z down to 18 and now the SE stays below 0c. That is quite some shift in the right direction.

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Maybe staying as snow in the SE. Might be one of those scenarios where its pretty much all snow over the far SE, but it fizzles out to drizzle as the front pushes back NW. Probably 100 mile adjustment west on this run, get another cheeky little nudge west and things look a lot better.

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Its a shame the UKMO 12hrs run was so underwhelming compared to the ECM. We could have seen our first reverse occlusion of the season on the fax charts. That's always nice to see as you know then that the Atlantic guff is being told to take a hike.

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1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

Its a shame the UKMO 12hrs run was so underwhelming compared to the ECM. We could have seen our first reverse occlusion of the season on the fax charts. That's always nice to see as you know then that the Atlantic guff is being told to take a hike.

Correct. A lovely sight, not seen for a while. Will be checking the FAX charts for evidence of this rare beast :)

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1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

Its a shame the UKMO 12hrs run was so underwhelming compared to the ECM. We could have seen our first reverse occlusion of the season on the fax charts. That's always nice to see as you know then that the Atlantic guff is being told to take a hike.

I sense your tension until UKmo comes in line with others! 

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2 minutes ago, Jason H said:

Correct. A lovely sight, not seen for a while. Will be checking the FAX charts for evidence of this rare beast :)

Unless the UKMO modify their raw output towards the ECM then we'll have to wait a while longer , hopefully the UKMO will add a bit more amplification tomorrow.

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9 minutes ago, SN0WM4N said:

ECM1-96.GIF?11-0gfs-0-90.png?18

Still no ECM but its getting there. 

by the time it finally catches up the cold spell will have finished by then its so slow that is if the ECM is right of course

 

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