Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

[Luke Attwood]

4 minutes ago, radiohead said:

Plenty of surface cold at T192 but we've lost the cold upper air. High still anchored around Scotland. Mostly dry. Brrrr.

What would be the daytime maxes here you think?

[swfc]

1 minute ago, Panayiotis said:

For nice viewing it would be lovely to see the high move towards Greenland with the 2 lows in the Atlantic undercutting it. Even more exciting would be if the PV decides to drop down from the north in the process...lovely ECM nevertheless but FI is clearly at 96hrs, anything after is just for enjoyment! 

given the strength of the pv there it would probably pull the high towards the esb.

[Spah1]

5 minutes ago, MR EXTREMES said:

retrogression writen all over it greenland here we come 

 

I'm confused why you are showing a December chart. 

[Day 10]

Belter!!!

[Spah1]

1 minute ago, swfc said:

given the strength of the pv there it would probably pull the high towards the esb.

Esb? 

[chris55]

2 minutes ago, Luke Attwood said:

What would be the daytime maxes here you think?

For England and wales. Ice days would be on the cards. 

[MR EXTREMES]

o look retrogression.

 the right chart this time

and undercuts lovely run

 

Edited January 11, 2017 by MR EXTREMES

[chris55]

2 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

Esb? 

eastern sea board

[Purga]

Up to Greenland we do go - reload from the Arctic waiting to replenish the Euro cold.

[bluearmy]

2 minutes ago, Purga said:

Up to Greenland we do go - reload from the Arctic waiting to replenish the Euro cold.

the day 9 chart does show some frontal activity coming into w uk with associated light snowfall. assuming that the low to our sw becomes more organised, we are running the risk of above zero uppers headed our way unless the ridge to the se drifts off and allows the northerly back in over e europe

[Panayiotis]

5 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

Esb? 

Eastern Sea Board was my guess but not sure...anyways nice ECM at 216hrs; look at the lack of PV on the left side of the hemisphere especially over Greenland! Large area of it over Siberia which is great a trend, GFS ensembles clearly show this as well:

Edited January 11, 2017 by Panayiotis

[MR EXTREMES]

but the 240 looks odd very odd.

but its a blinder and i dont think ive ever seen a 240 chart like that.

 

Edited January 11, 2017 by MR EXTREMES

[radiohead]

Some snow potential at T240 as high pressure weakens a bit and the cold remains.

Edited January 11, 2017 by radiohead

[Panayiotis]

Just now, MR EXTREMES said:

but the 240 looks odd very odd.

Thats the 00z, the 12z is below:

[Purga]

Blimey - hope I don't get banned for saying this but this almost a 1947 like chart!

PS: Strewth! look at that lot trying to reload down from the Arctic...

Edited January 11, 2017 by Purga

[SMU]

ECM ends with a sausage & a blizzard for the SW & ireland !

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, Purga said:

Blimey - hope I don't get banned for saying this but this almost a 1947 like chart!

you deserve to be but I was just looking at it thinking how it wouldn't be ridiculous to evolve to a barmy (not balmy) conclusion to the month from there

[chris55]

I know the 850s look underwhelming, but that would be very very cold in the back gardens of many in England and Wales at least.

And then we have the ongoing pattern! Which would surely develop with some much colder air moving south east, reinvigorating the cold air. 

[Mucka]

2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

ECM ends with a sausage & a blizzard for the SW & ireland !

That would be fantastic but we all know it will be different again next run.

[Just Below Zero]

4 minutes ago, chris55 said:

I know the 850s look underwhelming, but that would be very very cold in the back gardens of many in England and Wales at least.

And then we have the ongoing pattern! Which would surely develop with some much colder air moving south east, reinvigorating the cold air. 

Possible attacks fro SW N NE oe E with this set up

 

ESB........EVERY SESSION BARMIER

[bluearmy]

Just now, Mucka said:

That would be fantastic but we all know it will be different again next run.

thing is, the ecm is pretty consistent (infact maybe moreso with its 7/10 day output than its 4/7!)

and the picture it paints late on fits ok with the extended eps. the trough comes up from the sw and down from the n. how and where they meet a huge issue of course.

[Frosty.]

Another stellar Ecm run, it just keeps churning them out and an Easterly for the south of the uk next week is looking increasingly likely, for a change the coldest weather would be across England and Wales with ice days and there would be snow showers further s / e...no sign of any mild swly zephyrs I'm happy to say!

[Man With Beard]

20 minutes ago, Panayiotis said:

Thats the 00z, the 12z is below:

I'm looking forward to the ensembles. Surely some ultra cold runs from D12-D15. The PV simply has to push south from there. On this chart, uppers close to Svalbard are minus 28C!

Mind you, I'm quite looking forward to T24 too. And T48. And T120. And ... (OK you get my drift)

[bobbydog]

25 minutes ago, MR EXTREMES said:

but the 240 looks odd very odd.

but its a blinder and i dont think ive ever seen a 240 chart like that.

 

I thought that, a Gricelandirope high!

 

[Luke Attwood]

Correct me if I'm wrong,but looking at the models are we not on the edge of a two week cold spell?