Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

[Snowman.]

Low pressure in the Atlantic looking to stall, remember models struggle with Scandi blocks vs the Atlantic so FI is still very close.

[tight isobar]

Gfs oz-gfs 6z already an upgrade. .better height..better uppers !!!!

[Ali1977]

3 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Gfs oz-gfs 6z already an upgrade. .better height..better uppers !!!!

Definately better, just wondering if this is about right now or can we maybe see it starting to edge further North, this is where IF was always helpful with the METOs thoughs.  Plenty of the more experienced on here have said models that start dropping an Easterly can all of a sudden reverse and go back which could well happen.

 

We need the lows in the Atlantic to undercut, and then this could get much better

Edited January 11, 2017 by Ali1977

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

ECM went a bit flatter but too much and the evolution to flatten it seems a bit too much. With that shortwave/trough around SE at t144 to then settle the HP further south than yesterday seems a bit too big a jump.  On that basis I expect to see GFS improve from 00z run and show an easterly more akin to the ECM.  We shall see but an awful lot to get through next 72 hrs

 

BFTP

Edited January 11, 2017 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Seasonality]

4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

GFS 144 edges towards ECM ( however ECM was flatter )

low amplitude easterly - deep cold uppers not far away-

S

Looking OK for the South Steve. at 168h colder uppers pushing in, sub zero t2m throughout the heart of England and Wales and light easterly winds swinging to southerly quadrant the further North and West you are. 

[carinthian]

The latest 06z GFS run showing the same consistency as yesterdays same time run. Important 300 mb wind flow shows core high pressure aligning for a Easterly flow into much of England and Wales. All aided by a developing upper trough that will move from NE TO SW in the continental flow.

c

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

3 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Gfs oz-gfs 6z already an upgrade. .better height..better uppers !!!!

Wonder what that bomb will do out in the Atlantic?! She could go under if so then a very stuff south-easterly in Fi with troughs edging up from the south 

[SMU]

Should we get that easterly the surface temps will plummet - already just on Tues The GFS has london @1C with back edge snow & dewpoints -4

whilst not spectacular its at least enjoyable....

 

the bomb will open out & undercut ^^^^

Edited January 11, 2017 by Steve Murr

[Snowman.]

Just now, Severe Siberian icy blast said:

Wonder what that bomb will do out in the Atlantic?! She could go under if so then a very stuff south-easterly in Fi with troughs edging up from the south 

Unfortunately in GFS fashion it goes all over.

-8s back in

 

 

[snowice]

1 hour ago, bobbydog said:

Absolute and utter rubbish. The ECM has not budged for days. The UKMO has been on the same page. The GFS has now aligned to the euros. Whilst the most impressive charts have weakened a bit over 24 hours, we still have a scandi high and an easterly flow showing. If anything, the euros have "trumped" the GFS.

Well GFS  now going for the Easterly goes to show that you cant take one run in isolation, and some members are to quick to praise the GFS .ITS like a drunk coming back from the pub, but like all good drunks it always finds its HOME.

[Wilxy]

1 minute ago, snowice said:

Well GFS  now going for the Easterly goes to show that you cant take one run in isolation, and some members are to quick to praise the GFS .ITS like a drunk coming back from the pub, but like all good drunks it always finds its HOME.

Wait for the ensembles first could be a massive outliner

[Gavin Hannah]

Biggest difference thus far on the 06Z run is the HP failing to link into the Azores, bringing in less of the milder air from the south, allowing the colder uppers to return. LP in the atlantic makes it very interesting.

[Ali1977]

7 minutes ago, SN0WM4N said:

Unfortunately in GFS fashion it goes all over.

-8s back in

 

 

First one didn't undercut but the 2 smaller lows in the Atlantic may.

 

There could be some extremenly cold nights looking at this by the end of next week, coldest nights for years especially if we get a few snow showers in the mix.

Edited January 11, 2017 by Ali1977

[Snowy L]

Both ECM and GFS have compromised, but GFS much more than the ECM.

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

All this chopping and changing is giving me heart pulfertations lol!!! 

Despite what people say, the ecm has clearly led the way in this, the ukmo has also done great especially with the northerly but the ecm spotted the highest to build northeast first.

[Seasonality]

Just now, tomjwlx said:

Wait for the ensembles first could be a massive outliner

Maybe. But this looks tasty. I challenge anyone to moan about this output in the context of a UK winter.

[stewfox]

1 hour ago, stewfox said:

Mats post change every 6hrs

Lets see what the GFS 6z brings and the follow on ECM UKMO

Nothing is nailed yet

Await Mat next tweet with interest, EASTERLY back on !

6z

0z

6z Temps

0z temps

 

GFS HARD TO NAIL DOWN AT PRESENT

 

[captaincroc]

Just now, Snowy L said:

Both ECM and GFS have compromised, but GFS much more than the ECM.

Compromised is maybe being a bit unfair on the ECM (not that it's a person or would care  ). the GFS wanted to roll back the Atlantic fully a few days ago, it slowly came round to the ECM's idea of blocking to our E/NE.  Whatever happens now the ECM has done brilliantly in spotting this evolution, whether or not we get a full easterly is still up for grabs, but even if we end up with a MLB the ECM still deserves credit in spotting that.

[warrenb]

1 minute ago, Seasonality said:

Maybe. But this looks tasty. I challenge anyone to moan about this output in the context of a UK winter.

You look at that, and think PV shifting, retrogression, then watch GFS blow it away.

[Jason M]

The big thing in our favour is that its January and not mid Feb. If it was Feb the cold pool to our SE would dissipate quickly whereas at this time of year its not such an issue.

 

[Seasonality]

This is a cracking 06z for England. Pity it is so far out...

[That ECM]

Got to love a 2/3 day topler that's lasts for over a week

[Ali1977]

Look towards Greenland too, things could get interesting there. Can't post pictures but that PV is weakening fast.

 

A long way off now but -15 where any snow lies could well be on using the latest GFS, especially in the Prone areas such as Benson. -10 uppers and ice days, they will plummit after dark in clear skys.

Edited January 11, 2017 by Ali1977

[Snowman.]

This is a V cold chart

Still air in high pressure, ice days for many with snow showers in the SE. Jan shaping up to be a cold month.

 

[matty40s]

It will be interesting to see if the MetO update in an hour re-instates it's possibility of an Easterly which it withdrew last Friday. It's own model now shows this and the GFS is hauling itself there too.