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Polar Maritime

Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

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4 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

Don't know what all the fuss was about.

ok the uppers are not good but that will change its 240 hrs away so not really bothered whats excited me is the easterly is right in by 168 thats enough for me for now.

and lower heights to our south and undercuts possible with retrogression possible of heights.

Edited by MR EXTREMES

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6 minutes ago, MR EXTREMES said:

there we go beautiful cut of low to sw lower heights to our south and its pretty good going forward the easterly is in at 144hrs

by 240 of coarse its still there.

ECM1-240 (1).gif

in future runs watch for retrogression rather than sinker.

80% cold spell.

massive ramp from me.

Yes all in all a very good run from the ECM for coldy fans south of Manchester, pretty much slap bang on where the ensembles have been these past few days. Not particularly snowy after the next few days but then that's always been the situation up till now.

A very interesting development on ECM T240 is the movement of the vortex to Siberia. If that happens then high chance of a retrograde and fresh burst of cold from the north later (GFS has a mini go at this by T288). Is that looking too far ahead? ;)

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ECM op has finally come into line with last eps run which had been inching further north each run. we should be close to a solution now though GFS has a little way to go north yet but not far . S scandi block which wil come under pressure from low heights to our sw and drift west to join an Atlantic ridge . not sure we are getting enough cold in to our se though as per Stewart's musings last night. 

 

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GEFS not bringing cold lovers what they want and if anything, slightly worse than the output from yesterday.

gefs_t2anom_16_eur_1 (1).png

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7 hours ago, Changing Skies said:

That's not really true. We're into high res territory now by tomorrow the specifics should be nailed. 

Disagree. I think both the extent and type of predicted precipitation can and does move around a lot within 48 hours of the event. However, T+42 was a slight improvement for the South. Only time will tell.

T+48:T+48 17011218_1018.gif

T+42:T+42 17011218_1100.gif

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1 hour ago, Seasonality said:

Hardly a disastrous progression from 192 for the UK.

 

ECM1-216 (7).gif

Spain receiving the goods lol.Couldn't make it up.

If this were to come off Atlantic low will go under and I cannot see any sign of retrogression there.Only the high to bugger off se.Too much energy nw imo,might see a snowy breakdown with the right angle of approach.

Edited by joggs

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Fantastic stand off between GFS and ECM. It's a while since I've seen such a cracking eyeball to eyeball, like a pair of 250 pounders at the weigh in.

 

I've no idea which will win, but the fact that the UKMO has the Scandi high further south together with the GFS ensembles which don't make the operational seem outlandish, suggests that ECM is being very brave.

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Some worrying modeling 'currently' for London/south east tomorrow! !!

White out conditions. As-per I'd expect now cast differerencual' synoptic s.

Also of note looks to me gfs00z is a big improvement 'overall. .going forward' and maybe finally comin into line with ecm..

Via easterly' route.

17011218_2_1100.gif

5875df6502ae8_T4217011218_1100.thumb.gif.143ee13b8a3194d506eab8efae8c4838.gif

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3 minutes ago, joggs said:

Spain receiving the goods lol.Couldn't make it up.

If this were to come off Atlantic low will go under and I cannot see anyou sign of retrogression there.Only the high to bugger off se.We might see a snowy breakdown with the right angle of approach.

So the low goes under, at 240 the high gets pushed north east towards Scandi. Lower heights to the south, undercutting and the position of the vortex will encourage retrogression. Look at the whole run, the northern hemisphere view and the movement of the vortex. Not quite right to say there is no sign of retrogression and a sinking high.

 

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1 minute ago, tight isobar said:

Some worrying modeling 'currently' for London/south east tomorrow! !!

White out conditions. As-per I'd expect now cast differerencual' synoptic s.

Also of note looks to me gfs00z is a big improvement 'overall. .going forward' and maybe finally comin into line with ecm..

Via easterly' route.

17011218_2_1100.gif

5875df6502ae8_T4217011218_1100.thumb.gif.143ee13b8a3194d506eab8efae8c4838.gif

just shows you how hard it is to predict as yesterday nothing and now looking at 4-5 hours of snow all depends how much that northly can under cut the rain and how fast

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3 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Some worrying modeling 'currently' for London/south east tomorrow! !!

White out conditions. As-per I'd expect now cast differerencual' synoptic s.

Also of note looks to me gfs00z is a big improvement 'overall. .going forward' and maybe finally comin into line with ecm..

Via easterly' route.

17011218_2_1100.gif

5875df6502ae8_T4217011218_1100.thumb.gif.143ee13b8a3194d506eab8efae8c4838.gif

Will look pretty, but wouldn't worry too much as it will fall on wet, warm ground. Although then again, seeing as some in London panic at the sight of a flake of snow...

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1 minute ago, Seasonality said:

Will look pretty, but wouldn't worry too much as it will fall on wet, warm ground. Although then again, seeing as some in London panic at the sight of a flake of snow...

Think people just want to see snow just falling as it has been so long

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Was going to post about over analysing 8/10 day op output - even the ultra consistent ecm now illustrates that whilst it will be possible to pick the broad pattern, the accurate placement of surface features within 500 miles at 10 days (if they exist at all) is not feasible 

Btw, you all missed that little system day 10 coming down from Norway - doh!

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Indeed. 

However in heavier ppn' and even slight elevation' could be temporary accumulation. .and possibly disruption! ! All pretty speculative atm..as again it'll be dewpoints/wet buld/radar eyeing. 

Edited by tight isobar

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3 hours ago, January Snowstorm said:

For the last 3 days I've been seeing a 24/36 hour toppler, albeit a potent one. (granted some might squeeze 3 days)

The models have now firmed up on this

No they havent.  It has and always was a 2/3 day Northerly affair. The ridge was always going to topple, the question is how far North does it get before it topples.

Edited by mountain shadow

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17 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

Will look pretty, but wouldn't worry too much as it will fall on wet, warm ground. Although then again, seeing as some in London panic at the sight of a flake of snow...

Yes I was about to say the same. Shame we have to get through about 1cm of rain before any potential back edge white stuff. Still, will be nice to see the first snow flakes for around 4 years in this neck of the woods.

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Unsure about upgrades. MO seem to think otherwise. From past experiences GFS isn't accurate at presenting snow for the south 

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As mentioned by others above, there is cross model support now for the Easterly and it's fast approaching the reliable time frame. But lets wait until we get with t.96 before we start going on about lack of snow or not quite as cold etc. etc.. Subtle adjustments will mean that the broader scenario will remain unchanged (with any luck), and the details will start to become clearer within a few days. Then we can go to town with either a full on snowmageddon, or not. :D

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Clearly ECM has ruled the roost in terms of seeing an easterly signal in the first place, but the usual over enthusiasm with the magnitude of that easterly may have also caused it to see no 'blip' in the cold Sun-Mon when that may be just a bit too much to pull of.

Having said that, there are still signs of a very shallow low dropping south somewhere between central UK and the N Sea, and that could still be far west enough to keep the SE on the cold side throughout. Such a weak feature will be very tricky for the models to nail down.

Longer term, some of the strongest signs of amplification to the upstream pattern seen this winter mean that ironically even a decent easterly earlier next week could fall slack as the pattern shifts about - but then we have scope for blocking to the W/NW. 

If we see a mid-latitude block then if anything the pattern shift could occur more swiftly.

Worst case scenario? The block next week is pushed SE by lows running over having developed near the Azores and been scooped up by the N. Atlantic troughs, and then more of a W based neg NAO sets up despite tropical signals and seasonal wavelengths suggesting it should be more east. Given the winter so far... but no, the past should not dictate the future.

Edited by Singularity

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