Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

[Longtimelurker]

Matt Hugo-Winter of disconnect between GFS & ECM comes to a 'head' again with the GFS having 'got one over on' the worlds (allegedly) best model.

 

Tad reactionary

Quote

 

[shaky]

Lol you couldnt make it up!!ecm pretty much same as last nights run up to 120 hours!!what a fight ecm v gfs!!

[Mucka]

3 minutes ago, Longtimelurker said:

Matt Hugo-Winter of disconnect between GFS & ECM comes to a 'head' again with the GFS having 'got one over on' the worlds (allegedly) best model.

 

Tad reactionary

 

-Surprising given ECM is still coming out.

And GFS wanted absolutely nothing do with a ridge for a long time.

Personally I would say ECM has handled it much better if slightly over optimistic with the amplification.

Edited January 11, 2017 by Mucka

[terrier]

Well after a few days of excitement on the model output it seems like the gfs was right again. Think it has had some unjustified bashing by a few these last couple of days. But looking at the ukmo it's made a massive shift towards the gfs. And even though ecm not as bad certainly makes a move towards it aswell. Wouldn't be the first time this winter the gfs has trumped the euros.

[shaky]

Euro4 suggests quite heavy snow for central midlands down to the south coast tomorrow afternoon!!for a good few hours aswell!

[Fingers]

@120 ecm still going up, but everything looks a tad further east. Can we get the wrap around and still pull in the easterly?!?!

Large variations at 48 hours, FI is 72 hours!

clem

[Seasonality]

144h from 12z yesterday and 00z today. Not identical but talk of a massive climbdown or "fail" is hardly true... Yet. Wait to see where it sits in its ensembles too.

Edited January 11, 2017 by Seasonality

[Ali1977]

ECM still trying but I feel we are now seeing the start of some consistency coming in, close but no cigar for a proper Easterly, but still a cold high centred over us which will drag in some colder air to the south - dry and frosty looking the form horse, potentially severe frosts in clear sky. Unless the GFS start properly shifting towards yesterday's ECM in the next run I can't see this changing unfortunately. Lets just enjoy the next few days and see what happens.

May 168 the far south clings on to the cold still, not sure it will the next run but stranger things have happened.

Edited January 11, 2017 by Ali1977

[smhouston]

Reactionary posts already coming out from people.it's one run. it's worrying ukmo has also flippped though

However, you'll never get outstanding runs for 5+ days straight. 

People need to stop thinking models are reliable so far out. Winter synoptics are always volatile, and the most slight signal a model picks up on can affect everything

If come the end of today we are still having the ukmo / gfs  churning out these new versions, then you can start being concerned imo

 

[Man With Beard]

Morning all, so virtually no progress on this easterly then as far as I can see - at T144, the ECM still has it (not as major as yesterday but still a bona fide easterly), the UKMO has joined the GFS in saying no initially although the GFS gets close a bit later on. I don't think the UKMO has actually shown a true easterly to date so can't really say it has flipped?

It would be disappointing if the new ECM was wrong on this considering its consistency to date, and considering that the old ECM was by far the best model at dealing with Scandinavia. 

More runs needed?

[mcweather]

ECM out to 168  and it's more of a waft than a beasterly

[SLEETY]

Said yesterday untill you see easterly at 72 hours being modeled then always expect it not to happen.

[Mucka]

Well it does at least maintain a continental flow and keeps the South in cold air.

[Seasonality]

Any talk of consistency either way is premature. The models have been floundering. Any successfull call for the UK past 4-5 days at this juncture would be pure dumb luck or reliance on reversion to the mean. The 12z could go either way. 

Still cold for the SE though. Good for the Alpine ski resorts too.

 

[MR EXTREMES]

cross model agree ment even the jma has easterly the only model that has sw flow is the gem.

but theres cross model agreement on easterly flow ecm at 144 has northeasterly then 168 easterly its game on 70% chance id put the easterly at thats 10% extra than 2 days ago.

im not even going to entertain far reaches of fi looking good for mid maybe second half jan,

already given my views colder more blocking to come for rest of winter and a ssw event possible to maybe end of jan into feb.

 

[Man With Beard]

2 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Well it does at least maintain a continental flow and keeps the South in cold air.

It really isn't that bad for the south, though northern areas wouldn't be so keen if cold is what you want. 

Interesting, it isn't a mile away from the GFS by D7/D8!

And do you know what, in terms of weather on the ground, there isn't much difference between this ECM run and the last. Still cold and mainly dry.

 

[Scandinavian High.]

If we can't have a beast with heavy snow showers I take this staying cold and dry south east.. 

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Although the ukmo especially is flatter it's still not 100% done deal, with the cold spells of 09/10 I remember the models having models even at t120 stage then having to backtrack the next run. Not saying it wil happen but it's possible there is still a little wiggle room 

[Seasonality]

Hardly a disastrous progression from 192 for the UK.

 

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

Models now firming up on quite a lengthy cold spell for the UK this morning.

Whether it is cold and dry or cold and snowy is still up in the air but either way it is looking pretty darn cold next week across all models especially where skies clear over snow cover and where winds fall light.  Ice days are more than possible!

[MR EXTREMES]

there we go beautiful cut of low to sw lower heights to our south and its pretty good going forward the easterly is in at 144hrs

by 240 of coarse its still there.

in future runs watch for retrogression rather than sinker.

80% cold spell.

massive ramp from me.

Edited January 11, 2017 by MR EXTREMES

[That ECM]

8 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

Hardly a disastrous progression from 192 for the UK.

 

Agree and from a np point of view gfs and ecm have the Pv east with little over to the west. Jet stream will be less powerful . Potential for blocking from there is big. Where would it land at what would it mean for us? Who knows but much to look forward to both short and longer term. 

Edited January 11, 2017 by That ECM

[Seasonality]

4 minutes ago, MR EXTREMES said:

there we go beautiful cut of low to sw lower heights to our south and its pretty good going forward the easterly is in at 144hrs

by 240 of coarse its still there.

Don't know what all the fuss was about.

[Gustywind]

Let's wait and see this evenings runs and see if the stronger northern arm and polar vortex segment being further east is a blip or start of a trend. Far too soon to start conducting post mortems on another failed easterly.

[MR EXTREMES]

4 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

Don't know what all the fuss was about.

ok the uppers are not good but that will change its 240 hrs away so not really bothered whats excited me is the easterly is right in by 168 thats enough for me for now.

and lower heights to our south and undercuts possible with retrogression possible of heights.

Edited January 11, 2017 by MR EXTREMES