Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

[ghoneym]

3 minutes ago, The Enforcer said:

Although there are differences between the models in the alignment of the 'Scandinavian' High next week, isn't it more important that there are differences before then, certainly by Saturday Eve that would affect the potency of the initial north-west flow and the ability of cold air to stick around. Would anyone with access mind posting Metrociel charts for GFS18z, UKMO12z and ECM12z for T+96 alongside each other?

Cheers TE

There you are 

[Long haul to mild]

6 minutes ago, The Enforcer said:

Although there are differences between the models in the alignment of the 'Scandinavian' High next week, isn't it more important that there are differences before then, certainly by Saturday Eve that would affect the potency of the initial north-west flow and the ability of cold air to stick around. Would anyone with access mind posting Metrociel charts for GFS18z, UKMO12z and ECM12z for T+96 alongside each other?

Cheers TE

Here you go.... 

 

 

Edit : @ghoneym beat me to it lol but you now have a choice of Europe or N Hemisphere charts! :-)

Edited January 10, 2017 by Long haul to mild

[SMU]

16 minutes ago, Coastal Eddy said:

This is my first ever post on the forum.

I have enjoyed reading for many years - Some very informative and sometimes emotional posts !

I have only ever looked at FAX charts for the last 40 years

My reading of the upcoming North Westerly/Northerly appears to be just an extension of the Azores High in a more northwesterly position

Just watched outlook on BBC and they showed the Azores high drifting north east and becoming a Scandi high as a possible easterly outcome - Is this possible ?

Is this where our potential easterly arises from or is this just new high pressure building in Scandi ?

I am a little confused by this

Would appreciate any input from the experts

Cheers all

 

Yes - did you know nearly ALL greenland highs & scandi Highs come from the azores 

ice day @240 with 0c max in central areas - also down to -6c @7pm with -10c dewpoints- 

all academic but very low temps in continental air.

London 7 day CET from Sat (0.5,2,4,2,1,0.5,-0.5) = ~1.35c

 

[The Enforcer]

Just now, ghoneym said:

There you are 

 

Cheers. THAT'S where it is crucial that GFS changes to be more in line with ECM, otherwise what happens afterwards may end up being academic.

[Ian Suffolk]

Really not liking the look of that northerly on Friday. Great for wintry showers in the east, however I am very concerned as it clashes almost perfectly with the spring tide. Still nothing from the environment agency as yet...

[Snowy L]

3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Yes - did you know nearly ALL greenland highs & scandi Highs come from the azores 

 

 

This is true. January 2013 and December 2010 in particular went from zonal to Azores high magically moving North out of nowhere. Don't remember the last time High pressure from the other side of the North Pole moved south into Greenland for example.

[weirpig]

12 minutes ago, SN0WM4N said:

Was difficult to see.

That quite a change from is other tweet. Is that perhaps due to main band moving more notthwards?

[Guest]

How about a short post from me for a change!  For 3 Winters in a row and again last month, we have been saying where has all the cold gone? Always in the USA but never over here. Well, just as Donald Trump takes over, he's sending all their cold over to Europe and the UK! After another brief cold shot in Canada and the northern USA later this week, they are in for a prolonged and unusually warm spell from next week. Just look at the contrasts on the 850s at T+192. A sight to behold. All we need now is for Trump to build his wall in the Atlantic and we can have a permanent mid-Atlantic ridge! Well for those who read my post last night (on page 179) , it looks like my most optimistic "scenario 4" might well verify. Some wonderful output today and it's great to see this thread absolutely buzzing. Enjoy!

Edited January 10, 2017 by Guest

[Jason M]

JMA is not the worst this evening. I suspect it would just get better from here

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma.php?ech=264&mode=1

[Cheshire Freeze]

And there's the risk that we run (as I was talking about earlier) if we don't get the Scandi high far enough N in the immediate timeframes....a trapped Euro high

[Snowman.]

Just now, weirpig said:

That quite a change from is other tweet. Is that perhaps due to main band moving more notthwards?

Actually I think its the cold air staying place longer. If the BBC graphics have anything to show then it's moved further south.

Cheers to @Ben Lewis for the picture 

[Purga]

Ice skating ECM ENS for Holland ... & UK we trust....

At least 8 days in the freezer with the extended ENS

Bring it on.

Edited January 10, 2017 by Purga

[on the coast]

3 minutes ago, Ian Suffolk said:

Really not liking the look of that northerly on Friday. Great for wintry showers in the east, however I am very concerned as it clashes almost perfectly with the spring tide. Still nothing from the environment agency as yet...

Agree. Not even been mentioned on local news. The strength of the wind looks very concerning down the East coast.

[Nick F]

5 minutes ago, Ian Suffolk said:

Really not liking the look of that northerly on Friday. Great for wintry showers in the east, however I am very concerned as it clashes almost perfectly with the spring tide. Still nothing from the environment agency as yet...

There is, but hard to find : https://flood-warning-information.service.gov.uk/5-day-flood-risk

Quote

Forecast for Tuesday 10 January 2017 to Saturday 14 January 2017

The forecast flood risk across England and Wales for today is very low. Tomorrow (Wednesday) there is a low flood risk along the coastline of Suffolk due to windy conditions combining with high tides. Then on Friday a combination of high tides, a surge, large waves and strong winds will affect the east coast of England. Coastal flooding is possible along the east coast of England from Northumberland to Kent on Friday (extending into early Saturday morning along the Kent coast). There is potential danger to life along the east coast from large waves and overtopping of coastal promenades, along with possible flooding of properties and parts of communities and disruption to travel.

GFS showing sustained northerly winds of 40 to 50 mph and gusts of 70mph+down the North Sea, combine that with water bulge created by 974mb low and morning spring tide, could be some spectacular waves and coastal flooding for eastern England. Surge could be worse for Belgium and Holland maybe?

[PersianPaladin]

High-resolution models suggest development of two mesoscale features on Thursday, one to the west of Scotland and another to the south-west of Ireland. The latter is forecast by GFS to become prominent and develop into a more developed circulatory short-wave across southern england, eventually ending up in the southern north-sea. Could produce quite a substantial amount of precipitation perhaps even up to the midlands, though marginal for the south. Feature is also visible at 700hpa:-

 The feature west of Scotland, which some have suggested may be a "polar low" is a "watch this space" feature and, while likely highly transient - (requiring nowcast) may give a short sharp shock of precipitation to just about anywhere along its brief path. 

High-Res chart:-

Edited January 10, 2017 by PersianPaladin

[Mucka]

Little movement in GFS ensembles, perhaps a few a little more amplified than 12z set

[The Enforcer]

1 minute ago, Nick F said:

There is, but hard to find : https://flood-warning-information.service.gov.uk/5-day-flood-risk

GFS showing sustained northerly winds of 40 to 50 mph and gusts of 70mph+down the North Sea, combine that with water bulge created by 974mb low and morning spring tide, could be some spectacular waves and coastal flooding for eastern England. Surge could be worse for Belgium and Holland maybe?

Not that it's any of my business, but is it possible for that flood warning for Fri/Sat to be posted on the NW homepage to help raise its profile, as it is linked to the weather?

[Ali1977]

Where is knocker, is this a sign it's going to get cold and he's putting the squirrel in a warm cage, or has someone upset him ? Whilst he's Not a fan of cold it's good to have him posting as he knows his stuff and doesn't get carried away!!

[The Enforcer]

4 minutes ago, PersianPaladin said:

High-resolution models suggest development of two mesoscale features on Thursday, one to the west of Scotland and another to the south-west of Ireland. The latter is forecast by GFS to become prominent and develop into a more developed circulatory short-wave across southern england, eventually ending up in the southern north-sea. Could produce quite a substantial amount of precipitation perhaps even up to the midlands, though marginal for the south. The feature west of Scotland, which some have suggested may be a "polar low" is a "watch this space" feature and, while likely highly transient - (requiring nowcast) may give a short sharp shock of precipitation to just about anywhere along its brief path.

Is the South-West Ireland one responsible for producing the rain that BBC say will plague the South on Thursday?

[bluearmy]

2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Where is knocker, is this a sign it's going to get cold and he's putting the squirrel in a warm cage, or has someone upset him ? Whilst he's Not a fan of cold it's good to have him posting as he knows his stuff and doesn't get carried away!!

He's having a meeting with Ian brown (just kidding knocks)

tomorrow mornings forecast should be more accurate re thursdays rain/snow in the south 

[liam300]

Hopefully the front will stall on Thursday, allowing the dew points to be lowered

[Nouska]

12 minutes ago, Nick F said:

GFS showing sustained northerly winds of 40 to 50 mph and gusts of 70mph+down the North Sea, combine that with water bulge created by 974mb low and morning spring tide, could be some spectacular waves and coastal flooding for eastern England. Surge could be worse for Belgium and Holland maybe?

Yes, it's looking a bit rough down the North Sea on Friday.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/nww3_cartes.php

[Nick F]

2 minutes ago, The Enforcer said:

Not that it's any of my business, but is it possible for that flood warning for Fri/Sat to be posted on the NW homepage to help raise its profile, as it is linked to the weather?

I will ask Paul in the morning and see if he can put it up.

12z EC ens for London suggest determisitic pretty consistent with the mean of the ens - with what looks like clustering of similar or colder solutions too. So nothing to worry about there again.

 

[West is Best]

36 minutes ago, Jason M said:

Must admit that my money is still on the 'close but no cigar' scenario re the easterly, but this is a real teaser!!

That's certainly not a mild pub run!

 

 

That's my fear too. Too many runs and members have the high sitting over north Germany rather than Scandinavia.

But I'd love this to be misplaced and to find it's a belter.

[Jason M]

GEFS are very interesting indeed. By 204 many of the runs are seeing our high gain latitude and an increasing number start to look very good. Fascinating development today that we are starting to see runs move the heights further north over time. Its subtle, but maybe something stirring in the woodshed