Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

[nick sussex]

Just now, Jonathan Evans said:

Milder air returning for Sun/Mon & a mid latitude block next week - ECM will catch up tomorrow

Lmao! Really it seems to be the other way round. If the GFS can get to where its at at T162hrs given its start point then that actually increases confidence that the signal for pressure to rise to the e/ne is very strong. There was always the chance that some milder air might get in temporarily so that's not really a big shock.

[snowbob]

6 minutes ago, Jonathan Evans said:

Milder air returning for Sun/Mon & a mid latitude block next week - ECM will catch up tomorrow 

Cmon seriously

its not that simple

[damianslaw]

Notably the GFS 18z is showing low pressure over N Italy which ensures any building ridge to our east can't sink southwards. Whilst it is very slow in its evolution to a continental feed - it does still show this, so odds based on today's runs that we will not be influenced by the atlantic next week, has increased markedly to about 70%. 

[BurwellWeatherWatch]

3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Jonathan - is this just an analysis of the GFS runs or do you know something we all don't ? 

I think it was just a cry for attention. 

A few tweaks here and there and GFS ok. Cannot believe the consistency of ecm. Hopefully the 0 will provide some resolution

 

[weirpig]

Well not quite on the gfs 18z as other members have said pigeon steps. Remarkable model watching     At the moment I'm currently in bed I phone in hand with the wife snoring unable to stop watching the models  think we all must be mad  Does anyone know when the the euro 4 updates please ? 

[The Weather Dragon]

Short term upgrades now starting to appear - thurs/fri looking very good for some with accumulating snow - possible east coast surge a concern 

[tight isobar]

Ha ha..

Then pick up the signal an incurs the flow.....and offers these uppers

[SMU]

Note the bone chilling dewpoints edging in

[Geordiesnow]

I think we got to bear in mind, even if we get the amplification like the ECM is showing, it does not gurantee an easterly wind will develop, we could end up high pressure near or on top of us and in fairness, the GFS is seeing the hints but not quite getting there.

Conversly it won't take much for the ECM to back away to something more like the GFS is showing but it does look like pressure rising as we head into the weekend and into the start of next week is fairly likely.

[snowbob]

Gfs realising it's on its own

quickly trying to find ecm 

[The Weather Dragon]

2 minutes ago, BurwellWeatherWatch said:

I think it was just a cry for attention. 

A few tweaks here and there and GFS ok. Cannot believe the consistency of ecm. Hopefully the 0 will provide some resolution

 

This is my personal assessment of the modelled synoptics using a blend of experience & probability

[joggs]

1 hour ago, chris55 said:

ECM for USA still incredibly mild for the time of year in the mid term, days 9/10

 

That's what happened in our famous 91 cold spell re warm USA. 

[Hodgheg]

It so wants to do it you can almost taste it. I do hope its okay for me to post in this thread, its rare i would as i am no where near qualified enough. Just one thing i wanted to mention, considering we do get an easterly, those uppers don't appear to be that cold. The last thing i want is an easterly, but thats so marginal it keeps us all on edge right to the point of nowcasting rain or snow. That would top off this winter so far. Any thoughts from those with more expertise?

Edited January 10, 2017 by John Hodgson
Clarification

[Aiden2012]

6 minutes ago, Jonathan Evans said:

Short term upgrades now starting to appear - thurs/fri looking very good for some with accumulating snow - possible east coast surge a concern 

East coast surge ??

[Essexgooner]

The moment when you login and see 245 members in the model output room, you know something is happening

[weirpig]

1 minute ago, Jonathan Evans said:

This is my personal assessment of the modelled synoptics using a blend of experience & probability

Fair enough Johnathon it's your opinion and it's no less important then anyone else's. Me I have no idea  not a scooby. Bloody good fun though 

[A Frayed Knot]

[Coastal Eddy]

This is my first ever post on the forum.

I have enjoyed reading for many years - Some very informative and sometimes emotional posts !

I have only ever looked at FAX charts for the last 40 years

My reading of the upcoming North Westerly/Northerly appears to be just an extension of the Azores High in a more northwesterly position

Just watched outlook on BBC and they showed the Azores high drifting north east and becoming a Scandi high as a possible easterly outcome - Is this possible ?

Is this where our potential easterly arises from or is this just new high pressure building in Scandi ?

I am a little confused by this

Would appreciate any input from the experts

Cheers all

 

[Snowman.]

It's good to see where we have come from. Especially in the sake of the GFS which the differences are substantial. 

18z now 2 days ago 

18z now 2 days ago

ECM

now 2 days ago

 

 

 

[Jason M]

Must admit that my money is still on the 'close but no cigar' scenario re the easterly, but this is a real teaser!!

That's certainly not a mild pub run!

 

 

[Snowman.]

4 minutes ago, A Frayed Knot said:

Was difficult to see.

[nick sussex]

3 minutes ago, John Hodgson said:

It so wants to do it you can almost taste it. I do hope its okay for me to post in this thread, its rare i would as i am no where near qualified enough. Just one thing i wanted to mention, considering we do get an easterly, those uppers don't appear to be that cold. The last thing i want is an easterly, but thats so marginal it keeps us all on edge right to the point of nowcasting rain or snow. That would top off this winter so far. Any thoughts from those with more expertise?

I can understand your concerns. At this range though the 850's might change, the main thing is to get the easterly with a strong enough flow and a deepish low over southern Europe to get the coldest air into the UK. If the easterly verifies then closer to the time we'll know more about snow chances.

[The Enforcer]

Although there are differences between the models in the alignment of the 'Scandinavian' High next week, isn't it more important that there are differences before then, certainly by Saturday Eve that would affect the potency of the initial north-west flow and the ability of cold air to stick around. Would anyone with access mind posting Metrociel charts for GFS18z, UKMO12z and ECM12z for T+96 alongside each other?

Cheers TE

Edited January 10, 2017 by The Enforcer

[sorepaw1]

19 minutes ago, Jonathan Evans said:

Milder air returning for Sun/Mon & a mid latitude block next week - ECM will catch up tomorrow 

Good valid point I see where your coming from to some degree. 

[tight isobar]

This snapshot says it all really. 

Sinkin/flattening heights and dissolving the cold. .-mass spread continental and Scandinavia! !!..

Sorry but the gfs is just performing abismal. .

Its to me synopticaly ridiculous! !!!!

Edited January 10, 2017 by tight isobar