Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

[knocker]

Some charts that Ryan Maue posted a few hours ago that may be of interest

 

[Ali1977]

2 minutes ago, knocker said:

Some charts that Ryan Maue posted a few hours ago that may be of interest

 

Yep, with the Atlantic high in place and a strong jet it should go underneath, this should give us some good slider options and battleground scenarios. 

[Weathizard]

2 minutes ago, Ben Lewis said:

Couldn't agree more. Until the UKMO plays the game you are doing damage to your health and sanity getting excited. 

To view as eye candy? Absolutely, but make sure it is only that. 

If the GFS and ECM are BOTH that wrong between t96-144 then serious questions must be raised! 

To me the UKMO has been performing poorly just lately, Sod's law says this time it could be right just to peev us off and you're right caution should be urged but personally (just my opinion) I think it's a model out of its depth with the reputation it has.

[SMU]

28 minutes ago, Johnp said:

Over the past few years, my perception is that whenever UKMO has played party pooper, it has always proved correct.

I simply cannot get excited until it is on board!

Morning everyone

I have to say I agree with this, I would be a hypocrite if I didnt at least day that the UKMO is more worrying than yesterday -

current weighting for me UKMO 40% v 60% ECM/GFS blend. ( ukmo up from yest )

That said the UKMO 168 last night was still in the atlantic high ball park- just somewhat flatter - plus its very hard to dechipher on that link as well.

SO YUKMO THE UNDERDOG TODAY BUT BEWARE**

The ECM is the pick of the bunch going the whole 9 yards however it has to be said the GFS + control have moved back to the stronger amplified solution ....

As ever more runs needed!

In terms of the UKMO v ECM/GFS It is still about the low & over western greenland (96-120) & whether it goes across the high & down the eastern flank like ECM or cuts south down the west like UKMO- sadly from a seemless point of view the UKMO looks correct..

wait & see-

have a good day

Edited December 30, 2016 by Steve Murr

[northwestsnow]

21 minutes ago, Johnp said:

Over the past few years, my perception is that whenever UKMO has played party pooper, it has always proved correct.

I simply cannot get excited until it is on board!

Im with you john 

Cold lovers should know the worst model will nearly always verify.And the UKMO run this morning is rock solid in its poor evolution, i use the term poor because compared to gfs/ ecm thats exactly what it is.

Ecm/gfs both bring about cold and snow, ecm in particular is sensational, i guess the meto update will show us what the pros are thinking,if they are going with ukmo model then the update will likely be the same as yesterday.If they are going with gfs/ecm then there has surely got to be a change of emphasis to inc posibilty of much colder weather .

Im not being unduly negative here, i have worn this t shirt tIme and time again and until the ukmo 120-144 shows something sImilar i just refuse to get the sledge waxed.

Edited December 30, 2016 by northwestsnow

[Ali1977]

I may be wrong but the wording of this makes me think the UKMO could move towards the ECM. "For now"

 

[West is Best]

Sensational ECM. Goodness me. GFS would be wondrous but ECM is remarkable.

UKMO Fax charts again seem more conducive to the GFS/ECM.

Agree with Steve though. It would be good to see UKMO model on board and I don't particularly like the GEFS ensembles to be honest in the mid-range although in FI there's good support for cold reload:

HP is an FI  outlier:

But let's feast on that ECM:

[The PIT]

So 1st and 3rd best performing models ECM and GFS V UKMO the 2nd best. Who'll get the gold medal hopefully ECM

[Ali1977]

A pretty good day 10 mean from the ECM, quite similar to the op with the orientation of the block

De Bilt 10 day shows the plummet around day 9, I expect the 15 day ensembles to have some crazy cold runs.

Edited December 30, 2016 by Ali1977

[northwestsnow]

To be honest the ecm mean looks really good, so i would imagine the EC ens will be super for coldies.

The issue is if ukmo is correct at 120 - 144 then the whole suite or the majority of it will be wrong.

It really is never straightforward for us uk snow lovers!

[SMU]

Yes just about to post it - the key ( post UKMO ) 168>216 period shows energy ploughing SE out of the states allowing the high to build -

The day 10 mean is -6c for Eastern UK & -8c for debilt down 2 degrees from yesterday - 

Expect very strong very cold de bilt ensembles.... 

S

[chris55]

Going on Ian's tweet it seems last nights EC46 is going for a colder blocked pattern through Jan. 

Overall the positive signals remain.

hope UKMO comes on board tonight.

Edited December 30, 2016 by chris55

[radiohead]

The 0Z GEFS really is quite promising. Numerous members with some very interesting outputs.

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

Yes just about to post it - the key ( post UKMO ) 168>216 period shows energy ploughing SE out of the states allowing the high to build -

The day 10 mean is -6c for Eastern UK & -8c for debilt down 2 degrees from yesterday - 

Expect very strong very cold de bilt ensembles.... 

S

The EC ens will of course be great.I just cant even get remotely excited with that ukmo model churning out guff.

Im sure you know what i mean steve.

[SMU]

10 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

The EC ens will of course be great.I just cant even get remotely excited with that ukmo model churning out guff.

Im sure you know what i mean steve.

Yep - will be resolved by 07:00 tomorrow for that element...

[Chris.R]

WOW!

 

[snowblizzard]

24 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

I may be wrong but the wording of this makes me think the UKMO could move towards the ECM. "For now"

 

ECM is a deterministic model

Are UKMO & GSF non-deterministic models?

If so, could someone explain the difference please?

Edited December 30, 2016 by snowblizzard

[Chris.R]

More good news. 

 

[nick sussex]

 Noooooooo! Having just seen the nice upgrades on the ECM and GFS I'm met by the hideous UKMO.  Very frustrating, it's a no go until the UKMO comes on board and it's past history as the killer of dreams means any of the nice charts delivered by the others need to be set aside to protect the mental stability of coldies in here.

[snowice]

1 minute ago, Chris.R said:

More good news. 

 

This is great news for usGfs ecm has more support 

[snowblizzard]

Deleted!

Edited December 30, 2016 by snowblizzard

[knocker]

You can see where the ext EPS ens is going by looking at the charts RM posted above/ Or remember John's comments vis the NOAA 8-14 last night which is not far off the EPS money this morning. Surface high initially just to the west but drifting north as the positive anomalies build Iceland area. Ergo surface wind trending northerly/NE so cold and dry.

Edited December 30, 2016 by knocker

[mulzy]

The extended eps are sensational.  Broadly similar from the last 2 runs, but with everything corrected north west by a few hundred miles. London 850s circa -5 through the period (days 11-15).

Edited December 30, 2016 by mulzy

[radiohead]

0Z GFS(P) is just rolling out.

A snowy northerly on the 6th.

But shortly after on the 8th the Atlantic sweeps back in

[Ali1977]

Great extended, a fair bit colder than the last set.

These would be a few degrees colder than the UK but still close to ice days 10-15

GFS P posted above by Radiohead , with the UKMO is a little concerning though!! 

Edited December 30, 2016 by Ali1977