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Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.


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Posted
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs

This was on the 6th Jan. 

For a novice like myself I don't really have the knowledge to contribute much to the forum. However I am fascinated what the ECM is picking up 'if it is correct' to force the height rises over Scandinavia. Any thoughts? 

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Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
2 hours ago, Backtrack said:

Worryingly though, the ECM is on its own

It is now, but the 6z GFS had a similar pattern. 

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
2 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

This was on the 6th Jan. 

For a novice like myself I don't really have the knowledge to contribute much to the forum. However I am fascinated what the ECM is picking up 'if it is correct' to force the height rises over Scandinavia. Any thoughts? 

npst30.png

????

Kinda fits?

Then further evidence with this chart for deep FI

npst30.png

Which ties in with vortex shifting out of Canadian side

Edited by CreweCold
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Posted
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands

Yes, rain band significantly further north considering the time frame!

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Posted
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands

I'm exhausted.

gfs-2-48.png?18

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Posted
  • Location: CARDIFF
  • Location: CARDIFF
2 minutes ago, PerfectStorm said:

Yes, rain band significantly further north considering the time frame!

`its only the GFS but looks much better for back edged snow as it moves east at this early stage

Edited by pyrotech
edged
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Posted
  • Location: Swineshead, Boston, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Swineshead, Boston, Lincolnshire

Rain to snow in the south and yes a lot further north than the 12z

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
3 minutes ago, PerfectStorm said:

Yes, rain band significantly further north considering the time frame!

Could actually be better as cold air digs in before rain moves south, thurs evening could be much better

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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

Oh god, im unprepared for anything like this.

gfs-2-48.png?18

 

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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

Nice upgrade for the south ;)

 

48-779UK.GIF?10-18

Not bad, back edge stuff but the london snow shield seems to be working

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
1 minute ago, SN0WM4N said:

Oh god, im unprepared for anything like this.

gfs-2-48.png?18

 

 

It's not as good as it looks, the zoomed out chat is very low res so shows snow over a large area when in reality a lot of that is actually rain. No arguing that the 18z is better for backedge snowfall though. 

1.gif2.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

18z definitely upgrading back edge snowfall - It is the GFS though.

3.gif

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Posted
  • Location: St Albans, 95m asl
  • Location: St Albans, 95m asl

Worth looking at in greater resolution:

42-779UK.GIF?10-1845-779UK.GIF?10-1848-779UK.GIF?10-18

We can see this is as a result of the colder dew points tucking in from the NW:

42-101UK.GIF?10-1845-101UK.GIF?10-1848-101UK.GIF?10-18

But also note the urban heat effect being picked up over London on the final frame of those precip charts - knife-edge stuff

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

I'm a bit confused re that tweet and the MJO. The ECM moves the MJO out of the COD and  into phase 1 and the GFS is even more bullish. Of course these are just forecasts and might not verify but the Global Hazards outlook had this to say:

 Dynamical model forecasts of the RMM index generally maintain a weak intraseasonal signal during Week-1. During Week-2, however, most model forecasts predict a significant increase in amplitude of the RMM index, initially over Phases 8 and 1 (Western Hemisphere and Africa), then progressing into Phase 2 (western Indian Ocean).

I'm not sure how the UKMO can write off any influence from the MJO that far out. Theres more to the world of NWP than just the ECM though of course at this point we want its op to be correct!
 

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
2 minutes ago, Iceberg said:

Hi res has it turning to snow ready and heavy to in places. 

IMG_0708.GIF

Heavy right over my house which is nice if correct

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Posted
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
4 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

:shok:

prectypeuktopo-9.png

I showed this chart to my Land Rover and a little bit of engine wee came out...

and its T44 not T240 !! Back edge rain for the French. glad they got some.

Edited by stewfox
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Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts

Exhausted catching up with all the pages of posts since lunchtime!   Lots of understandable excitement but good to see no mention of a particular word .....yet anyway!   OMeGa  

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