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Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.


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12 minutes ago, Jonathan Evans said:

That ECM easterly could be gone tomorrow- seen it too many times before - expect a middle ground 

Yes, but if you are referring to the GFS 12z, the middle ground would also give an Easterly next week, just one that is not as vigorous, pressure higher and not affecting the far north, as outlined in my post here:

18 minutes ago, Weather Boy said:

If we might sober ourselves up with the GFS:

h850t850eu.png

 

We can see that even that 12z op tries to give at least the south an easterly.  It wouldn't take a huge adjustment for that to deliver the goods.  I accept that it would be very far from Snowmaggedon as per ECM (which as we all know WILL NOT verify exactly by the way) but it is a cold chart for the south.  No hairdryer SWerlies.

Can I please point out that the only way is down from ECM, so no wrist slitting please when that happens!  It equally doesn't mean the cold spell is off.

Either way, for the time being there is little or no mild weather forecast, except for the north if the GFS is right and the ECM 100% wrong.

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Evening All For those of us who have been here for a long while there is times when you know you have to throw in the towel on chasing cold & times ( very rare ) when you 'just know' that the

Boom goodnight vienna

People being a bit harsh on Steve Murr, at least he has the balls to try and read and predict what may happen from his viewpoint rather than just posting what charts show.

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1 minute ago, Weather Boy said:

Yes, but if you are referring to the GFS 12z, the middle ground would also give an Easterly next week, just one that is not as vigorous, pressure higher and not affecting the far north, as outlined in my post here:

Either way, for the time being there is little or no mild weather forecast, except for the north if the GFS is right and the ECM 100% wrong.

I agree WB, GFS as backed tracked to an Easterly of sorts and it gives MBY some cold temps for next week , been good runs as far as I'm concerned

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Very pleased with that ECM run, showed it intent on being more amplified early on and then the rest is history as they say. Of course the details within each run will change so still a lot of doubt if an easterly does occur, just where will the strongest winds will be but no doubt whichever model you follow, there is no raging Atlantic weather on the horizon.

Yes, the easterly does not look a convective one too me(thicknesses and to a lesser extent pressure are too high) but that does not matter at this stage and not all easterlies are convective but they will be cold that is for sure. Still too early to nail down an easterly will happen but the support for some kind of block to develop is increasing.

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ECM has been so consistent against all the odds with the easterly in what would normally be considered FI!!!

Take a look at how it has brought that original 240 chart from the 7th down to 168 as off tonight.

Consistency rules in weather forecasting, so for me at least i am actually pretty confident of an easterly come next week.

Obviously some changes between runs and the exact extent of any easterly flow is still open to variation but overall top marks...we do need more runs and of course we have to get it down to T0, but as it stands ECM looks impressive (at least for now)

ECM1-240.GIF?12

 

ECM1-216.GIF?12

 

ECM1-192.GIF?12

ECM1-168.GIF?12

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2 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

To be honest it's not the easterly that's good, It's what's likely to follow!

And let's not forget the arctic blast just around the corner, most of us should see snow showers from that and frosty, icy nights. Coldies have had to be very patient  but the momentum appears to be in our favour at last!:clapping::cold:

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The ECM is amazing. Stunning even. But really, we all know what happens when 2 models back the cold and one doesn't, don't we? So what chance do we have when it's one of the Models out on its own and the other 2 going off on one?

It's highly unlikely to come off, but god knows what is going to happen because someone seems to have spiked the models drinks at the moment.

Edited by Spikey M
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4 minutes ago, Spikey M said:

The ECM is amazing. Stunning even. But really, we all know what happens when 2 models back the cold and one doesn't, don't we? So what chance do we have when it's one of the Models out on its own and the other 2 going off on one?

It's highly unlikely to come off, but god knows what is going to happen because someone seems to have spiked the models drinks at the moment.

Why is it highly unlikely to come off? The ECM has been very consistent recently with the easterly cluster on the ensembles an ever-growing presence. It's far from certain, but I'd say the chances are pretty good :)

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37 minutes ago, geordiekev said:

Someone posted an archive chart a couple of weeks ago which looked very similar to this one from ecm. Just wondering what year it was from if anyone can remember. 

I was looking at blocked winters and posted this one which brought snow in the south. Up to 30cm around Brighton according to Philip Eden.

IMG_0316.PNG

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48 minutes ago, More Snow said:

Folks try and stay calm. the pain of December 2012 and that ECM still cuts deep. it is a stunning boombastic run but until its inside t72 i will not trust it.

Words of wisdom.

The GFS solution, while having edged closer and closer towards the ECM in showing the trend of height rises towards Scandi - may actually be a sign of what eventually happens in reality. The modelling of the polar vortex is proving difficult, and it will really come down to the pace of its progressive position and intensity, with the core east of central Greenland OR (as per the ECM) poleward with the East Siberian vortex ramping up. The main point however is the issue of time and progression. The signal of a vortex weakening and upper-level warming is acknowledged in both the GFS and the ECM, albeit the former is considerably slower in terms of the pace of vortex bifurcation. That time-delay is what counts, because effectively it results in shortwave-genesis eating eastwards and northwards across the Atlantic into our part of the world. While by T200 onwards the vortex weakening on the GFS does materialise, its already too late and the core of the High has been edged southwards with convection and CAA running off south towards Greece et al.

Edited by PersianPaladin
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1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

NCEP just updated. Good news.

SO OVERALL...THE 12Z AND 00Z ECMWF APPEAR TO BE THE BEST FIT
OVERALL TO THE PREFERENCE AT ALL FORECAST HOURS...BUT THE 12Z
UKMET/CMC LOOK REASONABLY SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF. CONFIDENCE IS ONLY
AVERAGE GIVEN MODEST CHANGES FROM RUN TO RUN AND MODERATE ENSEMBLE
SPREAD.
 

Thankfully no room for the GFS! Remember this is just the short term but crucially this is where the differences start with the GFS.

Let's just hope the ECM is correct and that high pressure will continue to rise in the Atlantic so everyone can have snow.  I'm not feeling confident on snow in my area Thursday/Friday even is there's weather warnings 

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1 minute ago, PersianPaladin said:

Words of wisdom.

The GFS solution, while having edged closer and closer towards the ECM in showing the trend of height rises towards Scandi - may actually be a sign of what eventually happens in reality. The modelling of the polar vortex is proving difficult, and it will really come down to whether it maintains its position and intensity, with the core east of central Greenland OR (as per the ECM) retreats poleward with the East Siberian vortex ramping up. The main point however is the issue of time and progression. The signal of a vortex weakening and upper-level warming is acknowledged in both the GFS and the ECM, albeit the former is considerably slower in terms of the pace of vortex bifurcation. That time-delay is what counts, because effectively it results in shortwave-genesis eating eastwards and northwards across the Atlantic into our part of the world. While by T200 onwards the vortex weakening on the GFS does materialise, its already too late and the core of the High has been edged southwards with convection and CAA running off south towards Greece et al.

Agreed as we have just experienced within a 48hr window our snow is now rain.

 

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4 minutes ago, Weathervane said:

I was looking at blocked winters and posted this one which brought snow in the south. Up to 30cm around Brighton according to Philip Eden.

IMG_0316.PNG

Cheers weathervane, I thought I'd seen a similar set up.  Certainly looks promising going forward for most parts. Those wanting to wait till its T72, the starts actually incoming within T24

ECM1-192.gif

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Just now, nick sussex said:

NCEP just updated. Good news.

SO OVERALL...THE 12Z AND 00Z ECMWF APPEAR TO BE THE BEST FIT
OVERALL TO THE PREFERENCE AT ALL FORECAST HOURS...BUT THE 12Z
UKMET/CMC LOOK REASONABLY SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF. CONFIDENCE IS ONLY
AVERAGE GIVEN MODEST CHANGES FROM RUN TO RUN AND MODERATE ENSEMBLE
SPREAD.
 

Thankfully no room for the GFS! Remember this is just the short term but crucially this is where the differences start with the GFS.

I need new fingers :shok:. Thread moving so fast. Great ECM,As Frosty has said.  First cold blast in 48hrs,all the talk of the easterly I nearly forget the upcoming ONE:cold:

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You spend all winter searching for charts such as these and when they appear in FI (which is what they are) some of you dismiss them in an instant, you couldn't make it up.

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29 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

I can't believe I missed this when I posted some thoughts from the NCEP diagnostic discussion. We're still waiting for the final update but this is good news:

CYCLONIC FLOW/SHORTWAVES SINKING ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS
ASSOCIATED FLAT SURFACE WAVE ACROSS GREAT LAKES EARLY THURS
SURFACE WAVE CURVING THROUGH THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES EARLY THURSDAY
 

BY 00Z/13...THE GFS EDGES
A BIT FASTER/EAST THAN THE BETTER ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS WITH THE 00Z
ECMWF/UKMET COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.
 

This is in relation to those early differences. The GFS is that bit faster because its less amplified in the early stages.We want the slower solution upstream.

And that is exactly the issue and it's on its own.

When things get heavy gfs struggles with certain situation.

And of coarse the ecm does to I'm still quietly optimistic 

And there's also the fact the gfs does have an easterly and the cold air to the east is literally touching the east coast.

So blend them altogether then look at the middle ground.

Either way absolutely no mild from the models but still I wait till Friday.

Edited by MR EXTREMES
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3 minutes ago, MrNooo said:

You spend all winter searching for charts such as these and when they appear in FI (which is what they are) some of you dismiss them in an instant, you couldn't make it up.

I am not dismissing the ECM - it is one of a range of possible solutions - as is GFS 

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Well I can honestly say I am more than happy with ecm continued trend and it's persistents. What ever happens a good wintry spell is due to start. I am confident plenty more eye opener output in a short space of time to come. Compared to the last two to three previous winters it's looking pretty darn good. Ecm could even be more jaw dropping tomorrow morning.

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