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Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.


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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

Good looking run from ecm and better than this morning.It looks almost identical to the 06z gfs!!!.Caution needed at that timescale and imo looks to clean a run.Good eye candy and if its any where near there next week wont be bad

 

Edited by swfc
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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

BOOOOM, this looks like a prolonged deep freeze. 

IMG_3976.PNG

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Posted
  • Location: Whitby north yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Cold , snow . Hot sunny
  • Location: Whitby north yorkshire

192 snow showers piling into eastern areas and probably a fair way west in the wind 

IMG_1309.PNG

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Just now, KTtom said:

Shame the uppers aren't a bit better...but hey ho I've seen worse charts.

 

 

Recm1682-1.gif

Uppers fine for an E'ly

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Posted
  • Location: Basque Country - Northern Spain
  • Location: Basque Country - Northern Spain
Just now, Long haul to mild said:

Sorry to ask a silly question but still learning. What happened to that quite deep looking Azores low on the T144 chart? It seems to have virtually gone by T168, yet the High has been pushed Northwards?

Embedded in the low that rises the high, you can see it southwest from Iceland,

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

Its an amazing run for an impactual easterly. 

Height format accomplishment

:cold:

ECM1-192-9.gif

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
2 minutes ago, KTtom said:

Shame the uppers aren't a bit better...but hey ho I've seen worse charts.

 

 

Recm1682-1.gif

From a dry east direction this will be proper cold without freezing uppers

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Posted
  • Location: Methil, Fife
  • Weather Preferences: Baltic
  • Location: Methil, Fife
1 minute ago, NorthernRab said:

I think that's as close as you get to a continent-wide coldspell. Snow from Russia to the west of Ireland and down into Spain.

 

ECM0-192.GIF?10-0

Svalbard for a sun holiday?

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Posted
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m

Just a quick question.

If the ECM at 192 was to happen exactly as shown, wouldn't uppers of -8/-9 not be quite cold enough for the north sea snow machine t get into full force?? Obviously areas exposed to the strengthening easterly wind.

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Posted
  • Location: Kesgrave, just East of Ipswich
  • Weather Preferences: April!
  • Location: Kesgrave, just East of Ipswich

Slight SE'ly tilt to the wind direction at T216 brings in a bit less cold uppers to the SE quadrant but hey it's still a great chart and lots to be optimistic about at the moment anyway!

Edited by Long haul to mild
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Posted
  • Location: Chichester West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snow
  • Location: Chichester West Sussex

Can anyone tell me if that ecm 192 chart verifies would it bring snow? 

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Posted
  • Location: Whitby north yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Cold , snow . Hot sunny
  • Location: Whitby north yorkshire
Just now, Smiler1709 said:

Can anyone tell me if that ecm 192 chart verifies would it bring snow? 

Yea especially to eastern areas but also further west . :cold:

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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
5 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Oh my goodness this is the best ECM yet, straight line easterly at T192, lowering heights!!!

This surely must be coming now. ECM is the king of the Scandi High after all. 7 out of the last 8 ops. If that isn't a signal, I don't know what is!!!

Just had a horrible flashback..... 

1 thing you have to say is that the ECM is sticking to it`s guns and has done for runs. This is a potential freeze on the cards, yip.

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
1 minute ago, Mucka said:

I did say with some improvements upstream it could be a lock in. Please let this verify.

ECH1-216.GIF?10-0

Yep as I said last night to Nick, get enough amplification initially and you stand a chance of some retrogression as continued signals suggest vortex movement away from the Canadian side. What we don't want a half a job Annie situation where we get a trapped Euro ridge. High risk!

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