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Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.


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Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

GFS 12z has a bit to much westward progression and as a result the high ends up centred a little to far south for it to bring in the "potential" easterly. Still cold at the surface and a perfectly plausible, though not a very exciting outcome.

Personally Im liking the UKMO 144! Just look at that vertical advection to our north!! Thats a major high lat block in the making!! Plus that energy in the Atlantic looks like it heading south east. UKMO get my thumbs up for sure!!

 UKMOPEU12_144_1.png

EDIT; After reading back through the posts i missed perhaps im reading it wrong?? Is it the wetter rendering thats caught me off guard?

I see that disrupting trough filling and the separate lobe of high pressure out west joining with the developing scandi ridge?  

 

Edited by chris55
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
1 minute ago, AWD said:

So it isn't all too bad then with regards to any continental flow next week?

I assume the UKMO T168 chart posted later this evening would show the intention of said shortwave?

Yes, its just another route to an easterly. The ECM thought differently on its 00hrs, it had a less complex evolution with that stronger ridge to the ne. I really don't mind how we get there as long as we do!

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Posted
  • Location: Methil, Fife
  • Weather Preferences: Baltic
  • Location: Methil, Fife
4 minutes ago, igloo said:

there is a problem with the GEM model the 850 uppers tend to be far to high with every run i should have been fixed a long time ago thats why most people ignore it and call it cannon fodder

Ah ok igloo, wasn't aware of this thanks.

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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

UKMO is fine @144 the jet is acute in its split North south so that trigger low would edge south south East over the UK with possible snow as the cold re-engages..

I think im just going to ignore the GFS from now on.... as its to volatile & bias... 

Hello Steve (or anyone else who wants to pitch in), speaking of bias. I know that when you look at the 'bias corrected' run on meteociel you are looking at the control run. So I take it this means the control run is 'corrected' to take into account the GFS known biases (please tell me if I'm wrong though). If so, why don't we pay it more attention and how does it sit with regards to verification?

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Posted
  • Location: Wellingborough
  • Weather Preferences: snow
  • Location: Wellingborough
10 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

UKMO is fine @144 the jet is acute in its split North south so that trigger low would edge south south East over the UK with possible snow as the cold re-engages..

I think im just going to ignore the GFS from now on.... as its to volatile & bias... 

me too, Im ignoring it completely beyond 144.

gfsnh-0-192.png?12gfsnh-0-168.png?12gfsnh-0-144.png?12

12z GFS forecast for monday over the last few days,very biased to bring in the atlantic barrelling in.

UN144-21.GIF?10-17

With a UKMO chart like this at 144, im fully expecting further westward corrections on the next runs.

gfsnh-0-192.png?12

IF the UKMO verifies at 144, the GFS 3 days ago was absolutely miles out.

ECH1-192.GIF?12

ECM 3 days ago wasnt far off...

Edited by Zakos
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

JMA 12z out to 84h looks very good

JN84-21.GIF?10-12

T

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Posted
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
2 minutes ago, Mucka said:

JMA 12z out to 84h looks very good

JN84-21.GIF?10-12

T

Although hideously low res, it shares the GFS thoughts on that precip on friday morning. 

J72-594.GIF?10-12

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
4 minutes ago, PerfectStorm said:

Although hideously low res, it shares the GFS thoughts on that precip on friday morning. 

J72-594.GIF?10-12

And makes less of the warm sector so that ppn likely snow, especially away from E coast.

J72-7.GIF?10-12

 

Edit.

Correction.

GFS is about the same, perhaps less of a warm sector for UK

gfs-1-66.png?12

Edited by Mucka
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Posted
  • Location: warwick 74m. asl
  • Weather Preferences: WHITE GOLD
  • Location: warwick 74m. asl
3 minutes ago, Dominic Carey said:

So do we bin GFS after a certain point?

We should have before winter started :rofl:

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Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

If ECM follows UKMO at 144 I will be fascinated to see where it goes from there!

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Posted
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.
1 minute ago, Dominic Carey said:

So do we bin GFS after a certain point?

Well, no. Just keep in mind it chops and changes a lot, recently, and it is also ranked behind ECM and UKMO in verification stats and it has since I first came on here. Doesn't mean that sometimes it won't out perform the others though.

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Posted
  • Location: .
  • Location: .
1 minute ago, Dominic Carey said:

So do we bin GFS after a certain point?

Shouldn't we bin them all after a certain point? ;)

All jest aside, I still think we should remain inside T168 and even that is always open to scepticism. In terms of cold events in the UK even T96 is probably at the limit. I wish it weren't so, trust me.

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Posted
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands

Interestingly, the mighty NAVGEM has the same idea although with slightly warmer uppers. 

navgem-2-72.png?10-18

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
10 minutes ago, West is Best said:

Errr ... the UKMO 144 looks absolutely stunning to me? There's a mid-Atlantic block, a Scandi high and an easterly with low pressure cells off the European continent. I've held back from getting excited until now but I was about to post what a stonking 12z UKMO it is!

Screen Shot 2017-01-10 at 17.02.03.png

Your correct ref the Atlantic block which may push the incoming PV from the NW northwards and in turn assist with the formation of an Easterly at a higher latitude. FI still at day 6 I think, much to enjoy before then. I will say the GEFS are all backing it's Op to 144 , but I'll not take much from that unless ECM does the same.

JMA does look very good at T84

Edited by Ali1977
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
1 minute ago, Dominic Carey said:

So do we bin GFS after a certain point?

Yes at T6hrs! lol Of course we'd love to ignore it but regardless of its failings its still a very good model.

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Posted
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
  • Weather Preferences: Severe weather enthusiast
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
4 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Yes at T6hrs! lol Of course we'd love to ignore it but regardless of its failings its still a very good model.

Indeed and i am always wary until we see excellent model agreement even if it means waiting until the day itself in these sort of setups.

I am pretty sure there have been times where Euros have been in agreement, GFS moves towards them, but then they all start shifting slightly back to what the GFS first suggested. Shame I cannot point to definite examples.

Not saying it will happen this time, as we've seen some of the positive musings from various forecasters. It is so finely balanced, but fingers crossed things go in our favour this time. We shall see.

 

 

Edited by Chris K
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Posted
  • Location: CARDIFF
  • Location: CARDIFF
1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

Yes at T6hrs! lol Of course we'd love to ignore it but regardless of its failings its still a very good model.

Thing is Nick, as many long timers on here have seen time and time again its the same story with GFS

It showed this cold spell at 15 days, run with it then it dropped it and went for a new route and something completely different only to slowly return to it again late on . 

How many times have we seen the GFS find the correct trend and drop it when ECM comes into timeframe and the GFS slowly try to catch the ECM up again.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
5 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Your correct ref the Atlantic block which may push the incoming PV from the NW northwards and in turn assist with the formation of an Easterly at a higher latitude. FI still at day 6 I think, much to enjoy before then. I will say the GEFS are all backing it's Op to 144 , but I'll not take much from that unless ECM does the same.

The PV has been stopped in its tracks!! Completely!

save ukmo.png

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Posted
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands

Looking at the GEFS, these are perturbations which deliver anything significant for anyone (6/20).


gens-7-2-72.png 

13
gens-13-2-66.png

14
gens-14-2-72.png

18
gens-18-2-72.png

19
gens-19-2-66.png

20
gens-20-2-72.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

I have to say though, that UKMO 12z is one of the strangest looking runs I've ever seen. I suppose the lower resolution can lead to some odd moments such as the shape of the low across Greenland at +96 and the lack of an intense core SW of Greenland such as all other models have.

I've not had time to read back over all the comments on the 12z so far but in case it hasn't been posted already, JMA and GEM only add to the confusion by producing a ridge on a par with the 00z ECM:

J84-21.GIF?10-12 gem-0-84.png?12

I believe this model is showing that the approaching trough could still turn out to be slower and further south.

GEM goes on to perform the switch-back jet approach rather than slicing a low through the UK this weekend.

gem-0-156.png?12

So it would not be surprising to see ECM remain along similar lines with its 12z effort.

The run then quickly slackens off - and it does still seem that the odds are in favour of a generally slack easterly with fairly feeble convection away from the east and perhaps south coasts, but you never know, the Euro low could end up closer to our shores.

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