Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

[The Northern Ramper]

6 minutes ago, snowice said:

How long can the drama go on for 72hrs to go? It can't go further than the ooz can it

The 18z will backtrack 

[ANYWEATHER]

Ecm at days ten is a chart of beauty if you like cold Its a shame its so far away , but if that chart came off , there would be extremely low dewpoints , and as a result record cold in some parts of the uk. Snow would be a feature for southern uk too.......Pipe freezing weather...

Edited January 9, 2017 by ANYWEATHER

[Met4Cast]

5 minutes ago, Ramp said:

The 18z will backtrack 

Yeah, we all said that last night too. 

I'm worried this is another case of the ECM being consistently wrong. The ensembles are going to be utterly useless in this situation. They're going to be just as clueless as the ops so the fact that they're starting to move towards the ECM op doesn't really improve confidence imo. 

UKMO being similar to the ECM is comforting though. 

[Man With Beard]

I'm liking this new NOAA 6-10 dayer a lot - heights pushing into Scandi. It's clearly not buying the GFS story

Edited January 9, 2017 by Man With Beard

[The Northern Ramper]

Just now, Daniel Smith said:

Yeah, we all said that last night too. 

I'm worried this is another case of the ECM being consistently wrong. The ensembles are going to be utterly useless in this situation. They're going to be just as clueless as the ops so the fact that they're starting to move towards the ECM op doesn't really improve confidence imo. 

UKMO being similar to the ECM is comforting though. 

The ecm and Ukmo being wrong at 72 in comparison to a flatter gfs will be the biggest shock this forum has seen.

[Met4Cast]

7 minutes ago, Ramp said:

The ecm and Ukmo being wrong at 72 in comparison to a flatter gfs will be the biggest shock this forum has seen.

Yet not the least bit surprising given the winter thus far. 

I agree though, if the UKMO/ECM have it wrong at T72 then there's reallly no point in even looking at the models 

[Summer Sun]

 

Edited January 9, 2017 by Summer Sun

[pip22]

Matthew Hugo ‏@MattHugo81

Finally balanced but EC clusters split 3 ways between 192 to 240hrs main cluster (18 members) showing the E'ly solution. More runs needed...

[Guest]

28 minutes ago, snowice said:

How long can the drama go on for 72hrs to go? It can't go further than the ooz can it

The pub run will go 100% toward ECM and UKMO and then the 00Z ECM and UKMO will drop the idea and send this place into melt down only to rejoin the party in the 12Z runs. im pretty sure thats how it happened in Jan 2013.

[Dancerwithwings]

1 minute ago, Daniel Smith said:

Yet not the least bit surprising given the winter thus far. 

I agree though, if the UKMO/ECM have it wrong at T72 then there's reallly no point in even looking at the models 

That's the six million dollar snowball QUESTION.....will it verify, only time will tell.....

[cardiff lad]

How many runs do they need 18 is a lot would have thought.

[snowice]

1 minute ago, More Snow said:

The pub run will go 100% toward ECM and UKMO and then the 00Z ECM and UKMO will drop the idea and send this place into melt down only to rejoin the party in the 12Z runs. im pretty sure thats how it happened in Jan 2013.

Hope your right

[Wivenswold]

With all this talk of GFS verifying over ECM/UKMO, wasn't there a situation last winter where GFS stuck to its mild guns only for ECM/UKMO to fall in line with +78hrs to go?

[chris55]

3 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

 

Good example of near term changes!

As they say " get the cold in first then worry about ppn".

Not saying it's going to happen but as a points west region-er' just goes to show things can develop both ways.

30%..... ill take that as a short notice potential worth watching.

[Met4Cast]

1 minute ago, Wivenswold said:

With all this talk of GFS verifying over ECM/UKMO, wasn't there a situation last winter where GFS stuck to its mild guns only for ECM/UKMO to fall in line with +78hrs to go?

Yeah, the GFS does have an annoying habit of picking out spoiler shortwaves well before the other two models. It also has an annoying habit of putting shortwaves all over the place that never verify, so it's impossible to tell which one of thise it's doing. 

Until all 3 models are on board, i'm holding off on the excitement. The one calling for the spoiler feels like it's always the one that's right, haha

[chris55]

4 minutes ago, cardiff lad said:

How many runs do they need 18 is a lot would have thought.

Well that is out of 51 ensemble members that run alongside the operational ECM we see on the web. So about 40% support for the OP.

 

[Purga]

A cracking set of ECM ENS tonight!!

[Ali1977]

What wave feature is this about? 

[Ali1977]

4 minutes ago, Purga said:

A cracking set of ECM ENS tonight!!

Your not wrong, they are really really good with only a few mild stragglers and a large group very similar to the op 

[samadamsuk]

6 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

Yeah, the GFS does have an annoying habit of picking out spoiler shortwaves well before the other two models. It also has an annoying habit of putting shortwaves all over the place that never verify, so it's impossible to tell which one of thise it's doing. 

Until all 3 models are on board, i'm holding off on the excitement. The one calling for the spoiler feels like it's always the one that's right, haha

Same here, as a long time observer of the models (who should understand a lot more!) - until all models are on to the same page, then I take everything with a pinch of salt. Seems to all hinge still on the jetstream exit/ low strength and path out in the atlantic, a series of chaotic tipping points, for waa to align and cut out that easterly - well see though, certainly interesting! Samos

[alexisj9]

1 hour ago, Snowy L said:

Noticed this secondary low on the T96 just east of the UK.

I'm guessing if there was a T84 that low would be right over the UK. Both ECM and UKMO have picked up on secondary lows close to the UK.

 

 

Ooh actually you may be right, if it's the same system that's on the UKMO I think it may snow more down south than people think.

[Stozzy]

11 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

What wave feature is this about? 

Think it's the one on the ukmo at 72hrs to the south west but not 100% if someone could back me up 

[bluearmy]

 Very interesting control brings the easterly and then retrogresses the ridge to mid Atlantic/griceland - euro upper trough expands nw.  Then broad scandi trough (not deep) expands sw. cold to frigid throughout 

jet drops split flow to our sw days 10/12.

southern arm stays strong throughout into the med. 

not completely out of sync with the mean/anomoly 

[beng]

 

The wave that Ian Ferguson was referring to is I suspect, the system in the channel on the latest 72h fax

Edited January 9, 2017 by beng

[West is Best]

Well, wow brilliant ECM and dramatic UKMO and the GFS operational has little support from other members on the mild side development. Fax charts are looking tasty too.