Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

[Mucka]

144 and still 

 

Look how far East GFS has pushed the cold air by comparison.

Edited January 9, 2017 by Mucka

[Weathizard]

Just the 8c upper difference at day 7! Bizzare!

[doctor32]

Much better... could be showing an easterly again by the end of run!!!

[Ali1977]

144 looks great, better than the 00z and all the other models - some interesting ENS in GEFS too so not sure this is sorted yet.

[nick sussex]

I'm liking the ECM T144hrs! An upgrade from this morning in terms of evolution at this point.

[booferking]

2 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

GFS looks particularly lonely again on how it's developing that energy around southern Greenland

Look at the pressure over Iceland, that's a crazy difference in this day and age at day 5

Now you see the difference yes the  GFS is looking rather lonely now.

[karyo]

I'm afraid the ECM has downgraded the uppers and it has extensive warm sectors in the 96 and 120 hours charts.

More wintry showers rather than snow showers if it has the uppers right.

[Summer Sun]

t120 UKMO and ECM are close-ish with GFS the odd one out

Edited January 9, 2017 by Summer Sun

[Man With Beard]

ECM T144 - if only the splitting trough could slice into the Azores High - not asking too much??

[Stozzy]

 ECM 144 similar to the ukmo , the high going north east . See where this goes

[chris55]

4 minutes ago, Optimus Prime said:

Goodness me! I thought you had posted an archive chart of late May or June for a minute there.

I know its so warm over there!!! You would think that should effect the jet without the sharp temperature difference we normally see with cold arctic air mixing with the warmer tropical air. Seems logical?  

[radiohead]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

I'm liking the ECM T144hrs! An upgrade from this morning in terms of evolution at this point.

And slightly better than yesterday's 12Z too.

[chris55]

Looking primed? Though that Azores high looks to flabby to be sucked north entirely, a cool continental flow rather than a full on easterly may be on the cards.

Edited January 9, 2017 by chris55

[Gustywind]

Don't think it's going to quite make it at t144, high more centred over U.K, than south of UK is my bet, so better surface cold.

[nick sussex]

Just now, radiohead said:

And slightly better than yesterday's 12Z too.

Now comes the important part at T168hrs, jet loop sw'wards with shortwave towards the Low Countries or not?

[Stozzy]

 168 , trough digging south in the Atlantic , high over the uk and to the east maybe too much energy over the top ?

[Weathizard]

168 is so close to a stormer, it's a looking a little bit squashed for the majority.

as someone just mentioned and one word of caution: the mild sectors at t96 are a worry for initial snow chances for nothern areas

[bluearmy]

just been checking this run against Saturdays 12z and astonishing similarity days 8 and 9 (now 6 and 7)

the jet looks about 200 miles se and not so strongly cyclonic around the euro low so don't expect the strength of easterly next frame that Saturday day 10 showed

 

Edited January 9, 2017 by bluearmy

[Mucka]

168 looks like possible Easterly incoming in later frames.

Low in the Atlantic to push WAA N reinforcing ridge.

Ridge may link with Siberian/Russian heights trapping trough and feeding low pressure back West

Edited January 9, 2017 by Mucka

[radiohead]

I think it looks slightly better than yesterday's 12Z but again it might end up a little too far south.

[frosty ground]

3 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

168 is so close to a stormer, it's a looking a little bit squashed for the majority.

as someone just mentioned and one word of caution: the mild sectors at t96 are a worry for initial snow chances for nothern areas

Below -5 now marginal?

[winterof79]

close

[Day 10]

Another improvement

[Mucka]

Far SE never loses the cold uppers 

[Man With Beard]

ECM T192 close to amazing for the SE, -6 uppers with continental breeze