Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

[Man With Beard]

UKMO at T120 looks ... ideal.

That naughty mid-Atlantic low looks like staying put and may eventually help prop up a high ... somewhere even further north than the ECM?? :0 :0

GFS still won't amplify but watch it produce a high close to Denmark anyway...

[Daniel*]

Aside from the excitement of UKMO T120++

That's a very wintry looking chart on UKMO T96 - pinch yourself at day 4. Widespread wintry showers, some places in the north west are going to get plastered. 

[Ice Day]

UKMO at 144..................WALLOP!

Would love to see the uppers though.

[Day 10]

Here is 144 ukmo

[northwestsnow]

Seriously, if gfs trumps ecm / ukmo at 96h then i give up.

And so should ukmo/ecm.

Gfs is a pile of trash, ahhh thats the hating off the chest...

[snowice]

6 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Yes well spotted - it leans towards the 00z from earlier holding the energy under the block longer thus avoiding phasing

Its also worth reminding ourselves of 2 facts - one has landed today

* No decent cold spell has ever landed without UKMO 96 & 120 on board 

* No cold spell has ever landed without ALL models being on board at 72 !!

S

More runs needed

Edited January 8, 2017 by snowice

[IDO]

GEM still says no: 

GFS at D9 is poor: 

EURO's -v- Conus'

  

 

 

Edited January 8, 2017 by IDO

[NO LONGER POSTING]

What's slightly different about the incoming blast from North West is the "West bit" 

Instead of a usual northly where we get the wishbone effect of showers hugging the coasts, because the wind has that westerly element its a better direction for showers as much more of the country can get in on the action as the air travels over more sea. 

Okay so the flow is not - 10 or more but it's still better odds overall for more people. 

Places with elevation in Wales and around the Bristol channel too would be good in my eyes feeding off showers from the Irish sea 

[Schmalex]

2 hours ago, shotski said:

Totally agree, I think the next couple of days model watching will define the rest of winter. Looking forward to the 12z ECM. 

Don't be so ridiculous. The charts have consistently failed to be accurate beyond 4 days and can't even give clarity on what next weekend looks like, let alone the remaining 9 weeks of winter...

[Essex snowman]

I really hope ukmo is right but part of me saying the gfs will be right so let's hope Ecm carries on the positive vibes that the ukmo has brought us 

[Zakos]

Huge difference between UKMO  and GFS at 144+. Even at 120 there is a remarkable difference.

My opinion? the GFS is "defaulting" to the climatological norm. The GFS is infamous for being too progressive when removing cold air from Europe.

UKMO is far more likely to be on the money.

[radiohead]

Amazing differences between 2 major models. 

Dearly want UKMO to be correct but there is something depressingly realistic about the dogged GFS!

ECM...no pressure.

[nick sussex]

We can only hope the ECM sticks to its output but

2 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

UKMO at 144..................WALLOP!

Would love to see the uppers though.

You don't want to know! lol That would be cruel for this thread given theres no agreement on whats likely to verify! Put it this way I'm shocked at just how cold that T144hrs chart is.

[Mucka]

Nice kink in the isobars over the UK on that 144 chart, hopefully it will be quite unstable arctic air-mass heading South.

[coldwinter]

3 minutes ago, IDO said:

GEM still says no: 

GFS at D9 is poor: 

EURO -v- Conus

  

 

 

Showing the GFS at day 9 when the differences are at day 4 and 5 is truly laughable. 

We now await to see if the ECM is consistent

[Day 10]

Lovely UKMO. I hope it's right as I want to remove 3 years of dust off my kids sledge and then use it myself!

[Man With Beard]

3 minutes ago, Zakos said:

Huge difference between UKMO  and GFS at 144+. Even at 120 there is a remarkable difference.

My opinion? the GFS is "defaulting" to the climatological norm. The GFS is infamous for being too progressive when removing cold air from Europe.

UKMO is far more likely to be on the money.

However, history tells me that - usually - there is always at least a little movement towards the GFS when it stubbornly sticks to a pattern. Worth bearing in mind.

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, Mucka said:

Nice kink in the isobars over the UK on that 144 chart, hopefully it will be quite unstable arctic air-mass heading South.

Mate i would suggest ukmo is cold and snowy for us thur onwards.Gfs to be fair has me wanting to throw the laptop at the wife.

Calm, calm, calm..

[snowice]

How on earth do you do a weather forecast with models not agreeing at96hrs

[Ice Day]

2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

We can only hope the ECM sticks to its output but

You don't want to know! lol That would be cruel for this thread given theres no agreement on whats likely to verify! Put it this way I'm shocked at just how cold that T144hrs chart is.

Go on Nick, give us your best guess.  I would estimate -10/-12 on the eastern side with -6/-8 across western areas?

[Neilsouth]

Just watched the week ahead and they showed the north westerlies becoming northerly blasting into the weekend, however they said next week turning milder with an atlantic influence. Can't see any ridging to the north east or east from the met yet

[radiohead]

2 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

Go on Nick, give us your best guess.  I would estimate -10/-12 on the eastern side with -6/-8 across western areas?

There is a guide to calculating it. I'm sure somebody has it bookmarked.

Edited January 8, 2017 by radiohead

[Ali1977]

3 minutes ago, Neilsouth said:

Just watched the week ahead and they showed the north westerlies becoming northerly blasting into the weekend, however they said next week turning milder with an atlantic influence. Can't see any ridging to the north east or east from the met yet

If the BBC long range says this it makes me a little worried for the UKMO outcome 

[coldwinter]

2 minutes ago, radiohead said:

There is a guide to calculating it. I'm sure somebody has it bookmarked.

 

[The Northern Ramper]

11 minutes ago, IDO said:

GEM still says no: 

GFS at D9 is poor: 

EURO's -v- Conus'

  

 

 

Isn't the Gem usually two runs behind?