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Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

Polar Maritime

By Polar Maritime
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted

Fantastic UKMO at 120, can't post pic but this looks very good

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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted

UMO now pushing that feature S rather than E which would help ridging I would expect

UN120-21.GIF?08-17

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Stozzy Enthusiast

Stozzy

Posted
  • Location: Whitby north yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Cold , snow . Hot sunny
  • Location: Whitby north yorkshire
Posted

Sorry Carnt post charts but 120 on the Ukmo miles better maintaining the cold flow with snow showers in the north and west :cold:

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted
Just now, Steve Murr said:

UKMO 96 is all but a carbon copy of the ECM 108 00z

That is VERY encouraging...

IMG_1377.PNGIMG_1378.PNG

 

BOOOM !!!! :bomb:

IMG_1379.PNG

S

Boooooooooom haha love it.Gfs still trying to be the party pooper steve

 

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Jonan92 Enthusiast

Jonan92

Posted
  • Location: Basque Country - Northern Spain
  • Location: Basque Country - Northern Spain
Posted

I would also mention that at 120h the low that appeared at 144h at UKMO seems to be souther than before, and doesn't seem to go around the top of the block this time

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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted
On 08/01/2017 at 16:20, Mucka said:

UMO now pushing that feature S rather than E which would help ridging I would expect

UN120-21.GIF?08-17

How at this range can one be so different, if ECM is the same as UKMO later surely we have a good chance it is correct

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snowice Seasoned

snowice

Posted
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW ICE
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
Posted
Just now, northwestsnow said:

Boooooooooom haha love it.Gfs still trying to be the party pooper steve

 

Yes what do we do with gfs? 

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Ice Day Veteran

Ice Day

Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
Posted

This is looking very encouraging......I'm waiting for the 144 behind the sofa!

UN120-21.gif

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Jason M Experienced

Jason M

Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex
Posted

Astonishing differences between GFS and METO at day 5. If anything by 144 GFS is even flatter than earlier but METO much more amplified. Watch ECM follow GFS now :rofl:

 

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted

Good grief the differences between the UKMO and GFS at T120hrs are astonishing and all brought about by events upstream within T96hrs, I don't think I've seen small early changes snowball into such vastly different outcomes as we are looking at here.

 

 

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Geordiesnow Accomplished

Geordiesnow

Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe
Posted

UKMO done a big move towards the ECM regarding the ridging and its a bit different to this mornings run. The differences regarding the duration and strength of the Northerly will be even more stark by 144 hours. Cant complain about this run really, its another super run for coldies but still some caution that we could end up with a flatter set up.

Hopefully the ECM won't backtrack too much and I certainly hope it wont backtrack to look anything like the GFS which lets face it, is not too bad regarding the NW'ly shot itself and -10 uppers hitting Scotland is nothing to be sniffed at but if we looking at something more prolonged then the UKMO is certainly the output you want too see verifying.

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Captain Shortwave Maestro

Captain Shortwave

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
Posted (edited)

UKMO/GFS

UW144-21.GIF?08-17   gfs-0-144.png?12

Huge differences, the UKMO is a fantastic chart with a cold/unstable and snowy northerly and surely you would get to the easterly solution later on with cold air piling towards Iberia as well as most of central and western Europe. The GFS is already going milder with westerlies pushing back in. Oh the joys of model uncertainty.

Edited by Captain Shortwave
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SMU Maestro

SMU

Posted
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Posted
12 minutes ago, Jonan92 said:

I would also mention that at 120h the low that appeared at 144h at UKMO seems to be souther than before, and doesn't seem to go around the top of the block this time

Yes well spotted - it leans towards the 00z from earlier holding the energy under the block longer thus avoiding phasing

Its also worth reminding ourselves of 2 facts - one has landed today

* No decent cold spell has ever landed without UKMO 96 & 120 on board 

* No cold spell has ever landed without ALL models being on board at 72 !!

S

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Singularity Maestro

Singularity

Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
Posted

So still we have nothing close to agreement over whether a low from the western US will in the period +72 to +96 hours engage with the trough over E Canada and force it to dig south with little E movement rather than be left free to move E and engage with the Atlantic jet, ejecting all manner of shortwave lows across the Atlantic... the 12z GFS is crazy busy with those!

Imagine how we'd be feeling right now if we only had UKMO and ECM to look at.

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Stozzy Enthusiast

Stozzy

Posted
  • Location: Whitby north yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Cold , snow . Hot sunny
  • Location: Whitby north yorkshire
Posted

144 ukmo northerly flow snow showers down east coast maybe , looks to be following the ecm with the ridge going north east :yahoo:

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Jonan92 Enthusiast

Jonan92

Posted
  • Location: Basque Country - Northern Spain
  • Location: Basque Country - Northern Spain
Posted

144 is out and as I mentioned that low doesn't go above the block this time

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bobbydog Maestro

bobbydog

Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
Posted
2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

UKMO 96 is all but a carbon copy of the ECM 108 00z

That is VERY encouraging...

IMG_1377.PNGIMG_1378.PNG

 

BOOOM !!!! :bomb:

IMG_1379.PNG

S

I'll save the boom for the ECM... if that's the same or better then we can have a KA-BOOOM!... the fuse is lit...

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Radiating Dendrite Experienced

Radiating Dendrite

Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
Posted

UKMO at 144 is pure bliss compared to earlier!

Much amplification and that shortwave is going south.

Over to you ECM.....

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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

How at this range can one be so different, if ECM is the same as UKMO later surely we have a good chance it is correct

Fingers crossed for that because GFS is rush and slush while UKMO and ECM are slow and snow.

The last time we were on the thresh-hold of a true cold spell one model (UKMO) said no and of course had to be right. Now one model says no again (GFS) and given our luck I won't be doing loop the loops until it is on board.

ECM ensembles were a bit mixed this morning so we are definitely not there yet but with every run ECM and UKMO maintain the amplification from tomorrow (if so) we can probably double our chances of them being right

Edited by Mucka
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SteveB Veteran

SteveB

Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
Posted
1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

Good grief the differences between the UKMO and GFS at T120hrs are astonishing and all brought about by events upstream within T96hrs, I don't think I've seen small early changes snowball into such vastly different outcomes as we are looking at here.

 

 

It wouldn't be weather model watching in the UK if there wasn't differences in one model to the other,

Hopefully GFS has this wrong, as it does tend to rush lows through quicker than other models.

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