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Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

Polar Maritime

By Polar Maritime
in Forecast Model Discussion

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kumquat Seasoned

kumquat

Posted
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
Posted
2 minutes ago, Iceberg said:

Seen enough for me upto t150. The high has build a touch further west, so happy with that and the associated cold plunge of snow it will bring over the next few frames. 

Yes, very consistent GFS from 12z to 18z out at 144/150 still almost nothing in it at 168.

 

gfsnh-0-162.png?18

gfsnh-0-168.png?12

 

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Iceberg Seasoned

Iceberg

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset
Posted (edited)

More of Northerly on this run as the high is just a touch west giving a northward rather than nnw flow. 

Remember as well this was nailed from t150 so not far away

IMG_0661.PNG

Edited by Iceberg
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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted

Heres what I was saying about the ECM not being as good, the same on the 18z, see the sharpness of the ridge on the 12z compared to the roundness, the angle worse on the 18z, still a Northerly but we wont get the mouthwatering Easterly on this run.

12z

gfsnh-0-210_opk3.png

 

18z

 

gfsnh-0-204_ric8.png

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Seasonality Accomplished

Seasonality

Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
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Posted

Lets be honest. For mild magnet UK this is a good run. :cold: Beautiful northerly.

gfs-0-186 (1).png

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted

Could this be an omega block that the ECM was showing yesterday?

gfsnh-0-222.png

 

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inghams85 Community Regular

inghams85

Posted
  • Location: Rotherham
  • Location: Rotherham
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Heres what I was saying about the ECM not being as good, the same on the 18z, see the sharpness of the ridge on the 12z compared to the roundness, the angle worse on the 18z, still a Northerly but we wont get the mouthwatering Easterly on this run.

12z

gfsnh-0-210_opk3.png

 

18z

 

gfsnh-0-204_ric8.png

Yeah we will! The angle is better on the 18z.

Edited by Paul
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booferking Veteran

booferking

Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
Posted
2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Heres what I was saying about the ECM not being as good, the same on the 18z, see the sharpness of the ridge on the 12z compared to the roundness, the angle worse on the 18z, still a Northerly but we wont get the mouthwatering Easterly on this run.

12z

gfsnh-0-210_opk3.png

 

18z

 

gfsnh-0-204_ric8.png

Think this is a great run myself Easterly incoming.

ECM1-216 (2).gif

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Sweatyman Seasoned

Sweatyman

Posted
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
  • Weather Preferences: Hot n cold
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
Posted
2 minutes ago, booferking said:

Think this is a great run myself Easterly incoming.

ECM1-216 (2).gif

No that's the ECM? 

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
Just now, booferking said:

Think this is a great run myself Easterly incoming.

ECM1-216 (2).gif

The high is too far South, the troughing digging south in the Atlantic is a good sign so promise going into Ens and overnight runs still as its only one FI op, but this wont aadvect cold uppers over us, if they are advected westward then they will be south of us and any Easterly would be Anticyclonic although still very cold at surface.

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stewfox Accomplished

stewfox

Posted
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
Posted
Just now, blizzard81 said:

Am I in a parallel universe here! There is no sign of an easterly on this run.

Me to

Bigger differences at T237 on gfs 18z (cf 12z) but  way out in FI

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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Am I in a parallel universe here! There is no sign of an easterly on this run.

There  is but it's painfully slow and will be weak compared to the previous run. Rather closer to the ECM script I think although I expect it has the split flow a bit lopsided later on

Edited by bluearmy
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Seasonality Accomplished

Seasonality

Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
Posted
1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

The high is too far South, the troughing digging south in the Atlantic is a good sign so promise going into Ens and overnight runs still as its only one FI op, but this wont aadvect cold uppers over us, if they are advected westward then they will be south of us and any Easterly would be Anticyclonic although still very cold at surface.

It is FI. All the crazy cold has been FI today. Calm down everyone. 

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Day 10 Maestro

Day 10

Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Popular Post
Posted

One good thing we can say with these cold options now on the table is at least we are getting them heading into January and not November or April! Perfect timing for once heading into the heart of Winter, so better chances for snow for everyone when the cold does arrive. :good:

 

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on the coast Enthusiast

on the coast

Posted
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire
Posted
6 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

There  is but it's painfully slow and will be weak compared to the previous run. Rather closer to the ECM script I think although I expect it has the split flow a bit lopsided later on

Fergie calling a low chance of anything from the East earlier. This run with a few tweaks could be nearer the mark? 

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