Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

[gottolovethisweather]

40 minutes ago, gottolovethisweather said:

What's the most solid model run of the lot telling us right now, the ECM 12z.?

It's saying COME TO DADDY. Can these verify? only at D5 too, oh my.  Cheers, I'll drink to that,

[chris55]

Yep 192 full of interest...good waa to the west... ripe for a scandi high

[Summer Sun]

[knocker]

2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Really- !

im not arguing - anyone that can see a screen can follow that wave in the 6 hour timeslots on the slowest setting I could do.

your just being obtuse.

A

 

 

1

 

And I'm not arguing. I've demonstrated that you are wrong on more detailed charts before you started the nonsense of T102  So just for the record I am not just being obtuse.

[Summer Sun]

Remaining very cold at D9 for nearly all

[JBMWeatherForever]

Model Upgrades, Cold air arriving earlier, Ridging ne ! What next, a prolonged period of cold weather ?  Certainly like the way things are starting to trend.   

[snowice]

Just now, knocker said:

And I'm not arguing. I've demonstrated that you are wrong on more detailed charts before you started the nonsense of T102  So just for the record I am not just being obtuse.

Its great model watching as long as we all respect each others opinions and interpretations of the models

[SMU]

5 minutes ago, knocker said:

And I'm not arguing. I've demonstrated that you are wrong on more detailed charts before you started the nonsense of T102  So just for the record I am not just being obtuse.

Follow it from 96 which is from my original post - its the wave under the word GFS 12z

Its the same system all the way through.

Edited January 7, 2017 by Paul

[Seasonality]

ECM continues to tease.

[knocker]

36 minutes ago, The Enforcer said:

Assuming we are talking about the same Low, it develops on Friday in the mid Atlantic in initially +5c 850 air and moves around the top of the Atlantic High to cross the UK on Saturday. This type of feature seems to rear its ugly head amid much debate every winter when cold spells eventually materialise. I am always told not to worry about the mild sector, but the outcome is always rain. I accept that at this range, the Low may not materialise on this occasion.

Fair enough the low does form east of Newfoundland and run around the HP and phases with the low near Iceland as it develops near the UK but I think we are at slightly cross purposes. I wasn't really concerned about the warm sector but the potential snowfall on the leading edge of the front. if the low was sliding SE the warm sector could well miss northern areas. Anyway has this all been lost in more recent salivation's.?

[gregior]

Time for a dedicated cold snap/spell thread?

or is that tempting fate !

[Neilsouth]

7 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

I'm back after many months of holding back my frustrations watching lots of excitement coming from Matt Hugo only to be a bunch of hot air, but looking at these charts above, on the 15th of Jan is that a disturbance running down the east coast into south east england? Could well bring snow if that was to verify. Only but hope as we haven't seen any snow since 2010

[Eskimo]

Definitely a trend  

Edited January 7, 2017 by PerfectStorm

[Summer Sun]

Easterlies setting up at D10 maintaining the cold

[Seasonality]

Well. Certainly some consistency in ECM spitting out this kind of chart.

[Gael_Force]

May I suggest this view on 3 hour spacing. Little wave pops out at 93 hours and slowly goes round the circulation of the main low till it is the more pronounced by 147 hours.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=6&code=code&mode=0&mode3h=1&runpara=0&carte=5&mode3h=1

 

[Frosty.]

6 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Follow it from 96 which is from my original post - its the wave under the word GFS 12z

Its the same system all the way through.

Nice animation there Steve, great to see the models firming up on a cold outbreak with snow for some of us!..can't wait

Edited January 7, 2017 by Frosty.

[Captain Shortwave]

Well the ECM keeps playing with this solution, in fact the run isn't too far from yesterdays 12z.

   

Very cold with snow showers down some eastern coasts which would hopefully become more frequent by day 10.

[radiohead]

Certainly a cold end to the run....

This is a proper model roller-coaster.

Hopefully the ECM is on the right track this time. 

[That ECM]

The meto chose to drop the possibility from their 30 dayer and right on cue

[nick sussex]

Well we continue our elusive search for the easterly. The ECM avoided that shortwave it had on the 00hrs which allowed a cleaner ridge to develop, the trigger shortwave that feature which could bring some snow works se 'wards and then as the PV heads south this forces the ridge ne. I think we could do with more margin for error. I should add though that the ECM is quite different over the ne USA than the GFS and UKMO at T144hrs, I think at this stage we should hang onto either the ECM or UKMO solutions and ditch the GFS, we don't want that to verify.

 

 

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

I said this morning about the 12z been more amplified than the 0z. Wonder Whether there's any credence behind this or its just a coincidence of late? Either way the models continue to play the easterly card game! 

[SMU]

12 minutes ago, Gael_Force said:

May I suggest this view on 3 hour spacing. Little wave pops out at 93 hours and slowly goes round the circulation of the main low till it is the more pronounced by 147 hours.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=6&code=code&mode=0&mode3h=1&runpara=0&carte=5&mode3h=1

 

Yep crystal clear on a gif

[Neilsouth]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

and ditch the GFS, we don't want that to verify.

 

 

I can honestly say I don't think I've seen the GFS verify throughout this entire winter so far has it? At least it's hard to keep up with one run being completely different than the next

[AWD]

That's 3 EC Det runs in a row that have developed heights somewhere to the N/NNE/NE of the UK.  Yes, the sharpness of the heights, degree of amplification, position of amplification, degree of upper air cold has altered & will continue to do so with each run due to the timescales involved, but to ignore the last 3 EC Det FI outputs, when they are all broadly similiar, would be foolish in my opinion.  Still an outside shot, due to it being FI, but when some degree of upper wavelength consistency is established, it's an option for the table.

The 2 week zonal spell after next weekends "brief" (mmmmmm..........) NNW'rly being bandered about is already looking on iffy ground.  Just to note, a D10+ mean chart will struggle to alter my view.

Edited January 7, 2017 by AWD
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