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Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

Polar Maritime

By Polar Maritime
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted
1 hour ago, chionomaniac said:

I think that extent of WAA and position and angle of the building block is better with the ECM at T+240 than the GFS at the same time frame. And look what the GFS produced from there. The ECM would nudge everything a bit further west. All FI conjecture of course. I like all output tonight - even the UKMO at T+144 I think that would drag the block further west still (eventually)

Completely agree. Completely academic at that range but the ECM would have been a stellar run post 240 hrs. 

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Stuie Experienced

Stuie

Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
Posted (edited)

Having a look at the conditions for the potential flurry scenario for Sun/Mon. Looks pretty good but timing is everything in the South. Front possibly 1AM, Wet bulb level is marginal but by 6am OK. Dewpoint and 850`s for 3AM.

 

EDIT: Charts removed by request.

 

 

Edited by Stuie W
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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted
1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

Completely agree. Completely academic at that range but the ECM would have been a stellar run post 240 hrs. 

It would?

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bradymk Rising Star

bradymk

Posted
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunder & Lightning, Thundersnow, Storms, Heatwave
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
Posted

The EC ens pretty consistent with the past few previous runs. The op a pretty good middle fit in the ENS

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Captain Shortwave Maestro

Captain Shortwave

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
Posted (edited)

EDH1-144.GIF?29-0   EDH1-192.GIF?29-0   EDH1-240.GIF?29-0

Some pretty decent ridging penetrating the Arctic pushing cold air into the mid-latitudes, given the re-energisation of the Canadian lobe as we start week 2 then surely the Scandi high is probably the most likely route to a cold spell for the UK as a transient northerly slowly backs towards the east as the Atlantic ridge topples and builds north east close to the UK at first.

A decent Euro trough is being carved out there with a good chunk of Europe cold or very cold by day 10 even going by the mean 850s. The ECM ens fit well alongside the GEFs.

Edited by Captain Shortwave
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shotski Seasoned

shotski

Posted
  • Location: Linslade, Beds
  • Weather Preferences: Deep cold
  • Location: Linslade, Beds
Posted
2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Downgrade on the ECM ens mean - further East.

 

At what time scale, can you post charts please ?

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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted
Just now, Steve Murr said:

Op 3 degrees warmer @ day 10 than the mean...

Surely this isn't a downgrade like feb1991 is saying. Mean must be further west not east

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minus 9 Contributor

minus 9

Posted
  • Location: newent glos. 50 metres asl
  • Location: newent glos. 50 metres asl
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Posted

One day this will happen. Just be nice to be this winter ,definitely possible. I don't post much, but this chart was to tempting 

IMG-20161229-WA0000.jpg

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blizzard81 Maestro

blizzard81

Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
Posted
4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Op 3 degrees warmer @ day 10 than the mean...

clustering around 2-3c maxima 

day 11 -15 expect to be lower- poss 1-2c max

Is this for debilt?

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted

Nothing wrong with that mean chart at 240,better than a round bowling ball:D

EDH1-240.GIF.png

 

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blizzard81 Maestro

blizzard81

Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
Posted
25 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

I really don't think this has happened since the upgrade at the end of November, though - if anything, it has under-amplified on occasions (ok, all bar one run which split the vortex quite ridiculously). It looks like it will have made excellent calls on both of the upcoming northerlies from way out at D9/D10. So I see no reason why it is going to be far off tonight

The Jan 47 esq run was after the upgrade and there have been a few other examples after the upgrade. You are correct about the upcoming mini northerly though.

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Seasonality Accomplished

Seasonality

Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
Posted
9 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Op 3 degrees warmer @ day 10 than the mean...

clustering around 2-3c maxima 

day 11 -15 expect to be lower- poss 1-2c max

Hi Steve. Please could you elaborate. Maybe with a chart or graph. Because I don't understand how @feb1991blizzard sees a "downgrade" (hate that term), yet you and others see it being good for cold. I  ask because you're better at explaining such set ups than I am. :)

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Glacier Point Accomplished

Glacier Point

Posted
  • Location: Worcestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Forecaster Centaurea Weather
  • Location: Worcestershire
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Posted (edited)

Another eps going for a progressive undercut and block development to the north in the extended range, sustained cold from day 8. Very cold European outlook. Pandora's box about to be opened..

just need to nail the drag back of the core of the pv across the sw USA.

Edited by Glacier Point
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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted
Just now, Glacier Point said:

Another eps going for a progressive undercut and block development to the north in the extended range, sustained cold from day 8. Very cold European outlook. Pandora's box about to be opened..

This sounds good GP...

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chionomaniac Maestro

chionomaniac

Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
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Posted
12 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Downgrade on the ECM ens mean - further East.

 

I've just checked the ECM ens  500 HPA anomalies from days 11-14 and they look in line with what I expect with the block further west than the GFS 12Z op suggests. Happy with that at this timeframe and without seeing the clusters.

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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted

The eps are overall consistent. Subtle differences re the pattern being a tad further east on heights but a  smaller tad further west on anomolies 

in th extended period, we develop the low anomoly train to our south but instead of the upper ridging being generally northern uk and beyond, it is more over the uk so the likelihood that any high will be centred more over the uk than to our north. 

as I said, subtle and generally on the same page but more likely to see any frigid cold sent to our se from this run. 

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted
2 minutes ago, Glacier Point said:

Another eps going for a progressive undercut and block development to the north in the extended range, sustained cold from day 8. Very cold European outlook. Pandora's box about to be opened..

Stew, are you still thinking blocking high across Scandy?

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johncam Seasoned

johncam

Posted
  • Location: Coatbridge, Scotland 129 m
  • Weather Preferences: snow in winter,warm sun in summer!!!!
  • Location: Coatbridge, Scotland 129 m
Posted

So guys what are we saying back to square one with high over us?

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mulzy Accomplished

mulzy

Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
Posted (edited)

At first glance the extended eps looks similar to this morning's run - i.e. pretty decent.

Higher than normal heights centred between Scotland and Iceland and lower than normal heights over the Med stretching up into Russia.

Just for fun, 850s for London from the extended eps are: Day 11: -3, Day 12: -3, Day13, -2.5, Day 14, -3, Day 15, -3.5.

Edited by mulzy
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