Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

[Walsall Wood Snow]

1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

Just add- people in locations like NI, NW england, North wales/ Cheshire Gap & western scotland will be licking their lips out the outputs as this scenario favours their locations for the first main bout of proper snow zonality this winter...

What about the West Midlands Steve. Do these charts give me room for hope here?

[weirpig]

3 minutes ago, Walsall Wood Snow said:

What about the West Midlands Steve. Do these charts give me room for hope here?

Yep Cheshire gap we do very well

[blizzard81]

8 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

Think it would look better in GFS style 6hr chunks so we can see whats happening. 24hr blocks often look weird between each other. Not saying it will happen though. Maybe a fun friday night special? Can only dream.

6 hour or even 12 hour steps would be helpful, I agree ☺

[Walsall Wood Snow]

1 minute ago, weirpig said:

Yep Cheshire gap we do very well

We can do I know, such as Christmas Day 2004 as an example of the top of my head. But I've also heard that it has to be orientated just right and be potent enough to do so? Anyway we're talking a week away so a lot to be resolved meanwhile.

[Purga]

An easterly - a slack one and not a very cold one but still beggars can't be choosers......

 

Edited January 6, 2017 by Purga

[Frosty.]

I don't think Sidney will be happy but I am, what a wonderful run from the Ecmwf 12z..hoping for a cold blocked extended outlook!

[Nouska]

There's plenty of ppn moving through with the -5C isotherm.

  

...and lots of interesting little disturbances in the flow when you run the 240 hour animation at 6 hourly time steps.

[radiohead]

12Z JMA showing blizzard conditions for northern parts. This is the low that I said was showing up on half of the 12Z GEFS members. A possibility to keep in mind.

[LRD]

19 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Accomplishment!..

Perhaps not just yet..but on compare through spreads/ens etc.

The final format/ road to cold "decency"..is alive and kicking. 

Any negativity. .should soon become positivity! !

Models smelling the out!!

#cold..#v-cold

Hope I'm wrong but that vortex (am I right - is the purple area the vortex?) looks fierce. Not sure that high pressure could sustain. Great chart for our corner of the world though. If only

Where's IDO gone? Value his contribution and I'd like to hear his view on ECM's output tonight

[NeilN]

Some good model output - just keep the faith! Would Bristol / North Somerset area get any snow showers if anything? 

[snowbunting]

Just now, radiohead said:

12Z JMA showing blizzard conditions for northern parts. This is the low that I said was showing up on half of the 12Z GEFS members. A possibility to keep in mind.

Yes was seeing this. It has similar synoptics to Jan 2 to 5th 1984. High pressure to south and in atlantic, Slight ridging over greenland and low pressure north atlantic pulling on very cold Polar Maritime air before going Nly. Fascinating to watch. Will post the achives from my computer a little later on. 

[nick sussex]

Well that was very exciting! I  need to go and lie down after the ECM decided not to jump off a cliff and join the GFS in the mild abyss.

I'm sure I'm not the only one who is getting hope fatigue, you'd think if you threw enough dice that eventually you'd roll 2 sixes. I think what both the GFS and ECM show is how with relatively small differences on a global scale you can end up with some quite different outcomes. Both outputs have a similar overall trend but as we've seen the end point at day ten will either have us cheering or conversely weeping into our unused ear muffs.

 

[Frosty.]

1 minute ago, nn2013 said:

Would Bristol / North Somerset area get any snow showers if anything? 

Get the cold in first

Very encouraging 12z runs this evening, some of us are likely to see snow later next week..imagine that

[Northern Sky]

6 minutes ago, LRD said:

Hope I'm wrong but that vortex (am I right - is the purple area the vortex?) looks fierce. Not sure that high pressure could sustain. Great chart for our corner of the world though. If only

Where's IDO gone? Value his contribution and I'd like to hear his view on ECM's output tonight

Yes that's the vortex over Greenland, the hope from that chart is that the high pressure would move to Scandy and bring us an easterly. I wouldn't get your hopes up though!

[knocker]

How many times have some us postulated this theory in the last few weeks? And that's just a lobe of the vortex over greenland.

Edited January 6, 2017 by knocker

[LRD]

8 minutes ago, Northern Sky said:

Yes that's the vortex over Greenland, the hope from that chart is that the high pressure would move to Scandy and bring us an easterly. I wouldn't get your hopes up though!

Thanks. Yeah it looks promising for scandi heights but those purples look angry and only a slight move by the vortex towards Europe would surely crush those heights south. Unfortunately.

Having said that, I'm sure on the 16 Jan the actual pressure pattern will look very different anyway!

Edited January 6, 2017 by LRD

[chris55]

2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Well that was very exciting! I  need to go and lie down after the ECM decided not to jump off a cliff and join the GFS in the mild abyss.

I'm sure I'm not the only one who is getting hope fatigue, you'd think if you threw enough dice that eventually you'd roll 2 sixes. I think what both the GFS and ECM show is how with relatively small differences on a global scale you can end up with some quite different outcomes. Both outputs have a similar overall trend but as we've seen the end point at day ten will either have us cheering or conversely weeping into our unused ear muffs.

 

So true Nick, just like where "that" Azores low headed. Was that due to all those global factors or were we just governed by some small localised synoptics? Im not sure to be honest.

However, as I pointed out earlier, still plenty to keep us on our toes regarding colder outcomes and ECM is well within that sphere. In fact its looking rather nice.

 

 

[NeilN]

4 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Get the cold in first

Very encouraging 12z runs this evening, some of us are likely to see snow later next week..imagine that

I just hope it's not another false dawn - I think we will get there eventually  

[Day 10]

20 minutes ago, Purga said:

An easterly - a slack one and not a very cold one but still beggars can't be choosers......

 

Famous BIG FREEZES have to start somewhere

[snowice]

1 minute ago, knocker said:

How many times have some us postulated this theory in the last few weeks>

Oh yes but 144 ecm not 240 in lá lá land

[knocker]

2 minutes ago, snowice said:

Oh yes but 144 ecm not 240 in lá lá land

But there is quite a big difference

Edited January 6, 2017 by knocker

[Optimus Prime]

2 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

Famous BIG FREEZES have to start somewhere

Big freeze? Judging by them charts and surface cold someone left the freezer door open all night

[snowbunting]

2 minutes ago, knocker said:

But there is quite a big difference

Knocker just wondering which site/page you get all your lovely charts from. That ECM anomoly...looks very very cold!

[LRD]

1 minute ago, snowbunting said:

Knocker just wondering which site/page you get all your lovely charts from. That ECM anomoly...looks very very cold!

I think that's a height anomaly chart... not a temperature one

[knocker]

1 minute ago, snowbunting said:

Knocker just wondering which site/page you get all your lovely charts from. That ECM anomoly...looks very very cold!

Hi snowbunting they are behind a paywall I'm afraid. Actually not that cold