Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

[Alekos]

I'm really sorry for UK ! This GFS run is looking wet and mild for you guys

[Matthew.]

3 minutes ago, radiohead said:

What a mess. 12Z yesterday, 12Z today.

Very nice quality charts but how do you get them so crystal clear? Many others not as clear.

[IDO]

Much better GFS in the medium term with sliders under cutting Greenland "heights". Will send LP systems NW to SEE through the UK. Though uppers will be moderated, could be more interest than mini-ridge intervals?

12z    06z

I think the heights building to Greenland is old news and GEM two cycles behind as per usual.

Should keep the colder background in situ a bit longer... 

[warrenb]

I think the problem is, that the trigger moment is very close (the storm off the Eastern seaboard), if a model gets this wrong, then the rest is rubbish, and it looks like it really is a flip of a switch difference.

[Summer Sun]

We might manage 2 or 3 colder day's later next week

By the following week south westerlies quickly return

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, IDO said:

Much better GFS in the medium term with sliders under cutting Greenland "heights". Will send LP systems NW to SEE through the UK. Though uppers will be moderated, could be more interest than mini-ridge intervals?

12z    06z

I think the heights building to Greenland is old news and GEM two cycles behind as per usual.

Should keep the colder background in situ a bit longer... 

FI is out on Wetter. It's awful and SW'ly dominated. To get sliders you need much better heights than are being modelled on the 12z GFS.

[Scandinavian High.]

Gem upgrade to my eyes who said we wouldn't get no upgrades. 

[chicken soup]

10 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

Gem upgrade to my eyes who said we wouldn't get no upgrades. 

GEM ought be good at projecting weather from the northwest being a Canadian model.............sorry for the straw clutch.

Edited January 6, 2017 by chicken soup

[Dancerwithwings]

 

GFS vs UKMO

No LP coming out of Canada in the UKMO output.

edit,,,Sorry!  yes it's there.

Edited January 6, 2017 by Dancerwithwings

[nick sussex]

Tonights Spam Fritter award goes to the GFS, vile, vile, vile!

The UKMO looks a slight improvement compared to the 00hrs run, but still upstream looks flat at T144hrs. The GEM has more interest but still sinks the high and is never a model to trust.

Overall a very underwhelming evening so far. The ECM to come, we're into damage limitation mode now trying to feed on whatever scraps are left at the buffet table.

[phil nw.]

If we compare the 2 at T144hrs we can see the UK has a cleaner looking flow coming se

GFS already developing those secondary wave features which complicate the movement south of the coldest uppers.

Neither models promise anything long lasting but we may squeeze a few extra hours of something a degree or 2 colder via the UK evolution.We know what's following this -the Azores pest is lurking.

[winterof79]

So as I read the thread.....it's all going pear shaped.....it's a mild and wet run and FI is mild too

Good job its FI then as it never verifies and it doesn't look a mild run up to 240 to me.Get a grip girls.It will be much colder later next week and some will get snow....again and after that well who knows.

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, winterof79 said:

So as I read the thread.....it's all going pear shaped.....it's a mild and wet run and FI is mild too

Good job its FI then as it never verifies and it doesn't look a mild run up to 240 to me.Get a grip girls.It will be much colder later next week and some will get snow....again and after that well who knows.

 

What's shown on the GFS (and much of the modelling for that matter) is not even reminiscent of a toppler of yesteryear...it's even worse than that. Some of the winters of the late 90's and early 2000's (which were barren years) would put this one to shame so far. That's saying something- the fact we're having to scrabble around for the merest hint of a wintry shower should speak volumes.

[chris55]

3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Tonights Spam Fritter award goes to the GFS, vile, vile, vile!

The UKMO looks a slight improvement compared to the 00hrs run, but still upstream looks flat at T144hrs. The GEM has more interest but still sinks the high and is never a model to trust.

Overall a very underwhelming evening so far. The ECM to come, we're into damage limitation mode now trying to feed on whatever scraps are left at the buffet table.

Doesn't look vile to me? 

 

 

And if this bad boy could tuck in a little further west......with a favourable "wedge" ahead, then we would be in business. Looking at Steve M analysis of recent days its not uncommon to back things west somewhat with this type of low.

 

 

 

 

[nick sussex]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

What's shown on the GFS (and much of the modelling for that matter) is not even reminiscent of a toppler of yesteryear...it's even worse than that. Some of the winters of the late 90's and early 2000's (which were barren years) would put this one to shame so far. That's saying something- the fact we're having to scrabble around for the merest hint of a wintry shower should speak volumes.

Exactly, this PM flow lasts about 24hrs and the fact its getting this much attention shows how low expectations have become. Even many of the previous crud winters which were generally mild had a few northerly topplers, what shall we call this sad attempt, for it to be a toppler it at one stage needs to be vertical this is almost horizontal from the start. Unless the ECM can come up with something then the window of opportunity before the upstream pattern flattens out completely looks like delivering a few hours of slush on a hill.

[winterof79]

7 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

What's shown on the GFS (and much of the modelling for that matter) is not even reminiscent of a toppler of yesteryear...it's even worse than that. Some of the winters of the late 90's and early 2000's (which were barren years) would put this one to shame so far. That's saying something- the fact we're having to scrabble around for the merest hint of a wintry shower should speak volumes.

I am not comparing with yesteryear.The drama on here is bordering on hysteria.It's forecast much colder next weekend and I am glad you are predicting a wintry shower.Also the snow before Xmas coated a good portion of West and north Yorkshire with any elevation.People should lower their expectations and maybe it would not be such a hammer blow when there is no Easterly

Edited January 6, 2017 by winterof79

[radiohead]

About half the 12Z GEFS members develop a strong or very strong low on the 12th/13th. Which isn't even hinted at developing like this on the Op run.

[IDO]

15 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

Gem upgrade to my eyes who said we wouldn't get no upgrades. 

GEM, as I said it usually 2 runs behind other models with its evolution and at T180 only one GEFS has heights like that (well not as pumped). It cannot be taken seriously in situations like this. It is clear the window has gone >and no toppling ridge< will happen now.

The Pacific Ridge is dead by D3 and then its just a weak wedge of heights meandering in the flow, towards Siberia. No amplification so it is pretty hopeless for any long term cold. That could well be our best opportunity in January for a cold spell as FI looks mundane and with no signal for forcing to re-establish then little to be hopeful about as it stands today.

D16 op:  

I think the front loaded winter is an epic bust and we await to see if February can offer something. Hopefully the short cold spell will give some flakes to the north but not expecting anything newsworthy, especially for the south. A zonal two weeks after this brief PM flow looks the call.

[northwestsnow]

Well Gfs is poor for coldies for sure, ukmo looks better at 144 although i would imagine the high will collapse towards the UK 24 hours later.Small window of opprtunity for something wintry on ukmo, and a window so small on Gfs you'd need to be an ant to get through it..

[nick sussex]

Just now, chris55 said:

Am i in the ramp/moan thread??? hard to tell!

Lol! If we didn't have anything to moan about then this thread would have about 2 posts an hour! I admire your optimism but the GFS is pants, the 850's will likely be watered down further. Never trust the models 850 projections in PM flows until much closer in. We need more amplification which if by some miracle happened then you might get a shortwave to track se more favourably with more cold air in place. Anyway the ECM might salvage the evening, the UKMO was a bit better than this morning so lets hope the ECM can at least squeeze out a bit more interest.

[bluearmy]

2 minutes ago, IDO said:

A zonal two weeks after this brief PM flow looks the call.

a zonal two weeks?  the anomalies beginning to drop out completely on the latest gefs so not sure anything can be guessed at.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, bluearmy said:

a zonal two weeks?  the anomalies beginning to drop out completely on the latest gefs so not sure anything can be guessed at.

I suppose it is the logical way forward Nick given the way the ops are progressing. There is little to force a change? 

[radiohead]

On the evening of the 13th, the op run had weaker winds in the north than all 20 ensemble members + the control.

Edited January 6, 2017 by radiohead

[Daniel*]

UKMO a lot better than GFS at T144 not that its extraordinary, hefty wintry showers for places all the way oop north/west - a more plump less flat Atlantic sector, should allow for the cold snap 'snap' to last approx 3 days with a cleaner less modified Arctic flow , GFS is frankly awful. Some perspective is needed here it's the 6th of January not February, come on get a grip some of you. Things aren't going to remain static the teleconnections the likes which Tamara elaborately draw upon, whether that will hinder us getting into a cold pattern or aid HLB cold pattern are not going to stay the same. We might struggle to see sustained cold this winter, but it doesn't take some sort of sacrifice to the gods to get a decent snow event to southern low ground which folk would be happy with, unbelievably. The last few winters may be responsible for the unease, but try not let it get to you it's silly really.

Edited January 6, 2017 by Changing Skies

[IDO]

3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

a zonal two weeks?  the anomalies beginning to drop out completely on the latest gefs so not sure anything can be guessed at.

What are you expecting then? I see little to prevent the PV from getting more organised, so zonal looks favourite. Looking at the GEFS at D16 (usual caveats) and they are insipid.