Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

[weirpig]

cold north westerly  with snow for most   on THIS run  however i expect will chop and change

[frosty ground]

3 minutes ago, radiohead said:

Heavy rain turning to snow in Scotland by T150 on the 06Z GFS

Colder uppers than on the 0Z at T156

Everything has backed west a little and the snow threat moves south.

[Scandinavian High.]

Later part January we could be affected by  high pressure to east bring some colder air in from the east one to  Watch .

Edited January 6, 2017 by abbie123

[radiohead]

Mostly dry by midday Saturday on this run as high pressure starts to creep in but upper air still cold, especially in the north.

[snowice]

 

GFS 192HRS AND THE COLD UPPERS -8 KEEP COMING

 

 

 

[radiohead]

Nice to see this at 168 hours and not 300 hours. Fingers crossed for upgrades on the 12Z's.

[Weegaz]

Ireland in with a good shot Thursday night into Friday of next week.  Charts have been backing this up for a couple of days now.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

1 minute ago, radiohead said:

Nice to see this at 168 hours and not 300 hours. Fingers crossed for upgrades on the 12Z's.

I know these gfs charts are only really good at highlighting risk, but at 6 days out as opposed to 10 its much better and nicer to see. 

Okay, so it maybe a 1-2 day affair but if most can see at least some snow falling I think the mood may change in here as we head into the 2/3 of winter 

[TEITS]

Ridge building but as per usual going to need an undercut.

No idea who some are on about another mid Atlantic HP. This does not look likely. Rather either an E,ly or we end up with a milder W,ly with HP to the S of the UK not W!

[chris55]

Quite a complex trough developing on the 06, the boundary line could be very snowy if it was to develop like this. And could move north or south. 

[Nick F]

A HP breather next Saturday before the next strong jet streak emerges out of NE Canada!

Given the direction of the models this morning of not having a straight northerly, gotta hope that the T850s of the NWly flow will be anything as cold as is showing, given the propensity for the NWP to overdo these temps at that range.

[radiohead]

By this point it's game over for our cold spell but still plenty of cold to our east and northeast which could be tapped into if things went the right way in FI, though probably not on this particular run.

-15 over the snowfields in Scotland at T216

Edited January 6, 2017 by radiohead

[frosty ground]

4 minutes ago, chris55 said:

Quite a complex trough developing on the 06, the boundary line could be very snowy if it was to develop like this. And could move north or south. 

Interesting run for the North West and Scotland, Each disturbance runs into colder air which is dragged further south.

[JOPRO]

4 minutes ago, chris55 said:

Quite a complex trough developing on the 06, the boundary line could be very snowy if it was to develop like this. And could move north or south. 

Could end being a classic UK Nowcasting situation for snow, some get buried and some get flooded a couple of miles down the road !!

[Frosty.]

Nice cold snap on the Gfs 6z later next week and some of us would see snow..with my glass half full we could see upgrades as its still a week away!

Edited January 6, 2017 by Frosty.

[Nick F]

1 minute ago, radiohead said:

By this point it's game over for our cold spell but still plenty of cold to our east and northeast which could be tapped into if things went the right way in FI, though probably not on this particular run.

Often there is deep cold to the east but often we are spared due to the strong jet over the Atlantic - and the 06z GFS op is no exception this.

The upstream upper flow pattern over N America and Pacific advertised into the medium to long range doesn't favour any amplification of any duration downstream = Alaska low appearance favours strong N flat Pac jet and combine that with the strong trop PV. The tropical oscillations certainly not favouring any re-amplification for a while, with continuation of weak MJO signal.

[weirpig]

I suppose  it all boils down to what your after   If your after a long term freeze up  then you may be dissapointed, But if your happy with a few days of cold weather with snow thrown in for good measure then the 06z is right up your street.  Uppers cold enough for showers to move inland on a stiff North westerly   the more north you go the more chance of seeing the white stuff   Id bank this run  in a heart beat  after the past few weeks of nothingness 

[Polar Maritime]

The GFS continues to show a cold Pm spell by the end of the week and into the weekend. Certainly one to watch re-detail, As some favoured spots could get a good dumping... Expect many variations over the coming days, And some interest at least in the models after such a bland Winter so far.. 

 

 

 

Edited January 6, 2017 by Polar Maritime

[Nick F]

1 minute ago, weirpig said:

I suppose  it all boils down to what your after   If your after a long term freeze up  then you may be dissapointed, But if your happy with a few days of cold weather with snow thrown in for good measure then the 06z is right up your street.  Uppers cold enough for showers to move inland on a stiff North westerly   the more north you go the more chance of seeing the white stuff   Id bank this run  in a heart beat  after the past few weeks of nothingness 

Yep, I'm quite happy to take what's currently on offer by the model high res, lots of volatility in a cold but strongly mobile flow from the NW is much more interesting to talk about and forecast than the tedium of MLB and overnight frosts that have governed our weather for much of the winter thus far. Even if I don't see any snow down here, be fun to watch people get some surprise snowfalls, which are possible in the evolution currently advertised.

I think yesterday's 12z EC high res block over the Atlantic at day 10 may have been a bit of a wildcard given the upstream teleconnections, so we will have to resign to what's on offer this morning, which could be much worse!

[frosty ground]

21 minutes ago, TEITS said:

Ridge building but as per usual going to need an undercut.

No idea who some are on about another mid Atlantic HP. This does not look likely. Rather either an E,ly or we end up with a milder W,ly with HP to the S of the UK not W!

GFS ends with the Azores high back in its winter 2016/7 position with another north westerly inbound.

 

[tight isobar]

So our PMshot firming throughout models..

And also given current synoptic s aome upgrades of cold and indeed snow are a good possibility. 

However post the pm cold incursion what then must be eyed is hinting of hp' getting punched and exelerating east/north east opening 'possibility' of inflow eastern northern eastern sector. ..

A Million miles in in meteorological world but something to keep in mind!!!!

Two things for sure its better than previous placements 'previous' winters. ..and certainly could evolve even more interesting going on .

[nick sussex]

Good grief what happened! Hugely disappointing start to the day with the ECM and UKMO now deciding to join the GFS with some fails this week. Very poor modelling of the pattern over Russia.

The ECM looks even worse than the GFS and typically now that its found the worst solution it will probably verify. Its now impossible to trust amplification even at T144hrs. One could understand the ECM backtracking in FI but really it all starts to go pearshaped from within T144hrs.

Once again after being promised at least rump steak we're back to spam fritters!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Interesting GFS again and decent cold showing.  Re cold pattern well, is there any real chance of solid HLB?  Probably not long lasting ....that comes in March  but I think the cold shot is 7-12 days long with E and SE losing it last.  ECM holding back compared to 12z but a cold pattern is still establishing and still a good run.  I think temps will be colder than showing on the 00z, one thing I've noticed is that we have still achieved some pretty cold conditions even under this 'dull' regime we've had.

I'm of the opinion that coldest shot won't come before 15th but the pattern is setting up and deep depression to move NW/SE across U.K.  Will it be sub lows as part of mean trough to NE?  All I think is winds NW/N/NE to be had during this 'forecast' cold spell.

Don't have 1987 or 2010 in mind and then you won't be too diappointed

Have a good day

BFTP

 

Edited January 6, 2017 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[weirpig]

2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Good grief what happened! Hugely disappointing start to the day with the ECM and UKMO now deciding to join the GFS with some fails this week. Very poor modelling of the pattern over Russia.

The ECM looks even worse than the GFS and typically now that its found the worst solution it will probably verify. Its now impossible to trust amplification even at T144hrs. One could understand the ECM backtracking in FI but really it all starts to go pearshaped from within T144hrs.

Once again after being promised at least rump steak we're back to spam fritters!

It all depends on ones expectations.   For me im happy with the outcome if not ecstatic    snow still a possibility for some  and still chances of upgrades in the future( we can hope)  I really dont know what spam fritters are  but if you havnt eaten in a while i suspect they are lovely.

[Faronstream]

ECM is not looking too shabby in the middle range at 168hours with -5 in 850hpa so on the slightly colder side, i won't look or think of the GFS for months beacuse of the disappointment last week. NAO value is trending positive for the coming 10 days and AO suprisingly negative