Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

[snowangel32]

Gfs is nothing but a tease. 3rd time a charm surely nothing can go wrong.

 

 

[bluearmy]

3 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Not what I'd call an 'inspiring' run, that...Sort of back to square one, or square two or even square three. Models and pros are all struggling to see the way forward, I think?

Interesting though!

You missed my post where all three main extended ens products are showing the same 10/15 day output then?

id say that's unprecedented this winter 

if you're asking me if I am confident in what they show then that's another question entirely! 

[bluearmy]

Just now, karlos1983 said:

It would appear the ecm op was an outlier, so that would tie in with your musings @Catacol ? 

On.y if you believe yesterday's day 10 ECM over today's karlos 

fwiw, the London eps graph now shows the warm up 6/12th Jan with the op very much in the warm side as might be expected. 

need a couple more runs to cement this cross model type agreement though the mid range not so much as yet. 

[phil nw.]

Morning all and a very happy new year.

We have lost any sign for now of sharing some of the deep cold which is now heading into E.and C,Europe.It looks like we will find ourselves with a high pivoting around or near the UK for the next 10 days.The signal for Atlantic- and to some extent Pacific amplification- has certainly been fading in recent outputs as the vortex extends across to the north restricting any ridging of the Atlantic high.

Later gefs does suggest any colder air is now more likely from the north west in week 2 as the jet eases south and it's axis swings more nw-se which forces the high to retreat.

 

 

Edited January 1, 2017 by phil nw.

[stewfox]

On 31/12/2016 at 10:49, stewfox said:

The last 10 GFS runs have been good,bad,good,bad etc

Small correction of 1,000 miles west at T120 could deliver. Optimism for New Years Eve.

 

900 miles ? 24 hrs later 20% chance of something happening

Background signals failed to deliver in December but some folk writing off the rest of January based on back ground signals ?  

 

Edited January 1, 2017 by stewfox

[karlos1983]

That's a pretty decent cluster going cold 

 

Now I know a lot will say "but that's days away" etc, but it's what we've got to work with, and eventually it will be right? Law of averages surely 

Edited January 1, 2017 by karlos1983

[Summer Sun]

 

[Timmytour]

If....or should I make that IF, we do end up getting the much sought-after easterly this winter, then I would not expect it to have been consistently modelled from ten days out, but something that appears, especially with across the board agreement,  at just two or three days notice.

I don't believe the models have a real grip on such a situation, hence the seemingly repeat pattern of tease-disappoint-hope.

I seem to recall Dec 2012 being a month of optimism that never materialised culminating in a disappointment that led to some saying the chance had gone for the first three weeks of January (some for the rest of winter). Very soon after we were getting very well behaved grail if not exactly the holy type!

I'm encouraged by the two and fro of the models at the moment and believe we will end up with something similar if not better than 2013. And that will do me.

Edited January 1, 2017 by Timmytour
To correct autocorrect!

[Methuselah]

3 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

That's a pretty decent cluster going cold 

 

That's true, Karlos...But pretty-much everything past January 8 looks rather like chaos to me?

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, Summer Sun said:

 

 

Right on cue.

[Johnp]

Looks like a large number of cold runs back in the 6z GEFS from day 10 onwards.

[Ali1977]

A great GEFS coming, again. It would nice if it got something right this year, and stuck with the general idea .

this day 11 mean is up there with the best runs a few days ago.

Edited January 1, 2017 by Ali1977

[Weathizard]

3 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

A great GEFS coming, again. It would nice if it got something right this year, and stuck with the general idea .

Really? Just going through the ENS I don't see anything great within 10 days or so...

 

edit it just seen above: day 10 mean is abojt as useful as a chocolate fireguard to be honest! 

Edited January 1, 2017 by Weathizard

[Ali1977]

3 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Really? Just going through the ENS I don't see anything great within 10 days or so...

 

edit it just seen above: day 10 mean is abojt as useful as a chocolate fireguard to be honest! 

No weathizard, nothing looking good here!!!

Edited January 1, 2017 by Ali1977

[Guest]

1 hour ago, karlos1983 said:

That's a pretty decent cluster going cold 

 

Now I know a lot will say "but that's days away" etc, but it's what we've got to work with, and eventually it will be right? Law of averages surely 

GENERAL CHART INFORMATION APPEAL

A Happy New Year to you Karlos and to everyone else who reads or posts on the model thread and to all the moderators. I just want to raise a point that might help a lot of readers on here, not just newbies. When a chart is posted that does not specifically state what it is showing, it can be confusing. Your chart here is a good example. I believe that it is showing 2m surface temperatures for London but one has to pause to think whether it might be the 850s. It would make it better for everyone if you could just say "London 2m temps" above or below the chart. Similar charts often appear from other posters on the model thread for Manchester or Aberdeen but sometimes do not state the location and I find that I need to check the latitude (which is usually shown at the bottom) to confirm the location. So, this is definitely not a criticism of you (that is not my style and I could just as easily have done a reply post to anyone else where this point is relevant) but hopefully a helpful observation. My point also applies to many other charts where it is not always completely clear what is being shown to us. I will be back with my next full report very late on Tuesday evening. 

Edited January 1, 2017 by Guest

[snowflakey]

29 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

That's a pretty decent cluster going cold 

 

All though a lot of scatter after day 10, a trend defiantly developing, Surly nothing can go wrong.

A very HNY to everyone from the King lurker.

Edited January 1, 2017 by snowflakey
bad spelling

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Weathizard said:

Really? Just going through the ENS I don't see anything great within 10 days or so...

 

edit it just seen above: day 10 mean is abojt as useful as a chocolate fireguard to be honest! 

Using it to make a deterministic forecast yes but if it has a mean Atlantic ridge up towards Greenland, then that shows that colder than average conditions with a NW / N flow is more likely RELATIVE TO CLIMATOLOGY, examination of the individual runs (which with GEFS we jhave access to) is the best method to find out more, if your saying a day 10 mean chart is useless then what day mean is usefull?????    d6 and below I would always use op runs for, if you believe that the GEFS Are useless then that's your view but that wouldn't mean all ens models are.

[Paul_1978]

13 minutes ago, Johnp said:

Looks like a large number of cold runs back in the 6z GEFS from day 10 onwards.

Just when I was going to give model watching a break for a couple of days, and now I'm eagerly anticipating (as I'm sure a lot of us will be) viewing runs to see if this trend is maintained..... arghhh!!

[shotski]

25 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

 

Looks like Ian has covered both bases. 

[radiohead]

24 minutes ago, Johnp said:

Looks like a large number of cold runs back in the 6z GEFS from day 10 onwards.

I went through them all and about 14 out of 20 are "good" looking runs for coldies in FI.

 

[Derecho]

Unfortunate to see another cold spell consigned to the bin. I think we can safely say that now.

I think there was a number of warning signs:

The sinking of high pressure to the south of the UK which really was a big blow, a northerly at the end of this week would have been a big help

Good agreement on the operational runs - Yes we should also look at the ensembles but we saw good agreement between the operational runs yesterday afternoon. The operational runs use a higher resolution then the accompanied ensemble members. The fact that three different models (UKMO,GFS and ECM) were showing stubborn heights to our SSE was a big warning sign, despite cold ensemble members still being shown. Most of these ensemble members saw the -10C isotherm barely clip the East Coast anyway.

Cold in Greenland and NE Canada - Pretty simple but with cold in these regions the Atlantic is always at risk of firing up. The low to the West of Iceland now goes against us given we don't have a northerly. The result is a flatter ridge to Scandi that doesn't get anywhere.

As for why this pattern keeps repeating... I don't think it's the westerly QBO as December 2010 was westerly. I did post this on NW a while back which is worth repeating for those who missed it and I stick by this interpretation:

Over the past few years we have had references to the North Atlantic cold blob, that has persisted. Some people say its gone but I think its still there. There is something in oceanography called the re-emergence mechanism. Basically in the winter the mixing layer (area that interacts with the atmosphere) is at its deepest due to the stormy weather. In the Summer months the mixing layer shoals. However the cold SSTs from the previous winter remain at depth, only to re-emerge again when it becomes stormier. Here is an example. First is March 2015, then December 2015.

 - March 2015

 

 - December 2015

See? the same SST pattern re-emerges again the following winter. It is interesting to note that this SST pattern is associated with increased cold air outbreaks filtering through the North Atlantic from NE Canada.

Unfortunately, here is March 2016....

 - March 2016

I get the feeling that unless some great atmospheric forcing overwhelms this then we will continue to see more westerly atmospheric circulation patterns then normal. I hope I'm wrong but in 2010 we had the opposite:

 - March 2010

 - December 2010

In 2013 we got bailed out by a good SSW event and I think we will need the same again. An SSW isn't a guarantee of cold but it increases the chances.

Now don't get me wrong I think this could easily turn around. Numerous ensemble members show northerlies for example. This however is well into FI.. I hope that the effects of low solar activity will kick in soon, like they did in 2008.

However for the reasons listed above, I am keeping my expectations very low. I am usually a cold ramper but this winter the background signals are favouring mild and this is what we have seen.

[nick sussex]

I'm dubious of any output that removes the now cemented higher pressure over southern Europe until its shown within T168hrs.

We've been chasing lower heights for weeks and as yet nothing has materialized. There seems to have been an inbuilt bias this winter to lower heights in that region in the longer range modelling which subsequently implodes.

I'd advise people to keep their sanity intact and wait till we see a strong constant signal which gets through to the day 7 timeframe and not be seduced by the GFS or any other model which suggests the demise of that higher pressure.

 

 

 

[bluearmy]

The GEFS anomolies consistent with previous run (and other models ) days 10/15. This suite builds a mean mid Atlantic ridge quite early in its low res so not without interest in that regard. Let's see what the 12z's bring. 

Clusters point to northwesterly flow in the 8 to 12 day timeframe 

[Gibby]

Despite the wild switches in the output of the models this chart has remained largely steadfastly constant over the last week to 10 days with just minor changes day to day. It's been proven to be largely right over the last 10 days and I see no driven reason why we won't remain in a largely benign weather pattern with winds between SW and North over the next 10-14 days due to High pressure just to the SW as this mornings offering shows. It never has showed an Easterly or a strong enough Northerly over the last 10 day period to support the musings of the operational and other permutations almost each run has shown since Christmas especially from GFS. If I was to use the data from each run to my local community my credibility on my local website and Facebook page would reduce to zero in no time. I'm confident that the first half of January will see no marked cold with frosts and a gentle wind from a West or NW point with a lot of cloud at times with little rain or snow- all based on the mean chart illustrated below-in other words the main message I've maintained since Christmas. Sorry 'coldies' but that's how I see it and that from a no bigger snow fan than me.

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

Edited January 1, 2017 by Gibby

[Ali1977]

6 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The GEFS anomolies consistent with previous run (and other models ) days 10/15. This suite builds a mean mid Atlantic ridge quite early in its low res so not without interest in that regard. Let's see what the 12z's bring. 

Clusters point to northwesterly flow in the 8 to 12 day timeframe 

Definitely of interest, this isn't deep FI .