Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

1 minute ago, lorenzo said:

1 December had a strong NAO signature image courtesy of Anthony Masiello on twitter.

2 Bz refers to solar influence on the NAO and whether increased activity expands the Hadley Cell vs other forcing ( eg MJO)

3 The strat plots show a distended vortex carved across the NH as a result of a 2k M Wave 1 forcing, the Pacific Block pushing the vortex, being met briefly by the Atlantic anomaly.

4 The 100 hPa pattern shows the avenue to support ridge development NW  > NNE and also the intrigue of the next evolution of the vortex energy shown in the 475K, around that time the MJO will be on 2-7 days for activity again.

 

Thanks - I think I got about 5% of that - not well-versed in stratospheric theory, unfortunately. 

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

7 minutes ago, lorenzo said:

1 December had a strong NAO signature image courtesy of Anthony Masiello on twitter.

2 Bz refers to solar influence on the NAO and whether increased activity expands the Hadley Cell vs other forcing ( eg MJO)

3 The strat plots show a distended vortex carved across the NH as a result of a 2k M Wave 1 forcing, the Pacific Block pushing the vortex, being met briefly by the Atlantic anomaly.

4 The 100 hPa pattern shows the avenue to support ridge development NW  > NNE and also the intrigue of the next evolution of the vortex energy shown in the 475K, around that time the MJO will be on 2-7 days for activity again.

 

Sounds interesting, but what exactly does this all mean? Thanks

Edited December 31, 2016 by Grimsby Snow Lover

[nick sussex]

No joy on the GFS 18hrs run, it was an uphill struggle from early on with poor phasing of shortwave energy in the Atlantic. Looks like the last run of 2016 is going to sum up the last 12 months in terms of cold and snow. Basically pants!

Putting that aside let me wish all NW members a Happy New Year, lets hope for a change of fortunes in terms of cold and snow.

[Boro Snow]

Happy new year everybody, i still think this is going to be a winter we will look back on and go WOW, 

[karlos1983]

4 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

No joy on the GFS 18hrs run, it was an uphill struggle from early on with poor phasing of shortwave energy in the Atlantic. Looks like the last run of 2016 is going to sum up the last 12 months in terms of cold and snow. Basically pants!

Putting that aside let me wish all NW members a Happy New Year, lets hope for a change of fortunes in terms of cold and snow.

Happy New Year Nick, I already liked you, but now I know your a Gooner you've gone right up in my estimation lol. 

Ps did you get to ride the sledge down the mountain ..... I feel it's an unfinished drama & we need answers 

Edited December 31, 2016 by karlos1983

[Weathizard]

18z gives us a nice zonal run you have to laugh...

[Mark wheeler]

Happy new year .. I'm waiting for my snow . Please some one bring me some snow . I'm losing the plot .

[Frosty.]

Low res on the Gfs 18z gives us a nice blast of cold zonality with snow in places.

[karlos1983]

1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

Low res on the Gfs 18z gives us a nice blast of cold zonality with snow in places.

Yes cold zonality is better than boring nothingness.

nice to see you back frosty!! Did you miss the epic GFS midweek?? If you did your lucky lol

[nick sussex]

Just now, karlos1983 said:

Happy New Year Nick, I already liked you, but now I know your a Gooner you've gone right up in my estimation lol.

Ps did you get to ride the sledge down the mountain ..... I feel it's an unfinished drama & we need answers

Lol! Unfortunately my husky ride hit the buffers, we did get to the mountains but they're pretty sad looking with what seems a precip forcefield at full strength. It has been cold though and mainly sunny and it was great to have friends down over Christmas. They left today so that's why I'm back on here posting more often. That also means I can watch the football tomorrow! Though that might not be a good thing! lol

[Frosty.]

Bank!!

[karlos1983]

2 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Bank!!

Unfortunately shaped warm sector across Rep of Ireland on the precip chart  

[Essexgooner]

Shame the charts are going backwards at this stage for us, heres hoping for something cold and snowy comes our way in January.... just wishing everyone in the room a very happy 2017 and thanks for all the efforts in the room this year with your very informative info

[Dancerwithwings]

1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

Bank!!

Friday the 13th....what a lovely horror show HAPPY NEW YEAR TO ALL

[Day 10]

3 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Bank!!

Post of the year! Snow for all. Come on models read the flamin script!!! 

[Frosty.]

Something for long suffering snow starved coldies to smile about on the cusp of 2017 from the 18z..here's hoping for charts like these breaking into the reliable timeframe in January!..Happy New year..again

[Hotspur62]

Well GFS 18z gives a potentially nice snowy end in FI but in PM air and chart shows the Scandi High on 18z been pushed well East and looking much less robust than on 12z. This looks too progressive for me,even more so than the 12z. Will the GFS start showing a more fired up Atlantic in next few runs.Personally, i would be surprised but atm anything is possible.

 

In the meantime Happy New Year to one and all. 

[Allseasons-Si]

10 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Bank!!

oy!!! put knockers red crayons away

just a quicky from me,as i have a party to run

HAPPY NEW YEAR all,it's been a great year on hear again,and all the best for 2017

ciao in 2017

 

[Banbury]

2 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Surely you must accept that the last 48 hours of runs have meant that an Easterly is much much less likely than it was????

Just looking at ECM alone , I would say NO, something from the East is more likely than anything zonal , even the UKMO 144 goes against zonal

[radiohead]

There has been a flattening of the high on the 18Z GEFS mean. Increase in a low pressure signal near Greenland.

 

[karlos1983]

7 minutes ago, radiohead said:

There has been a flattening of the high on the 18Z GEFS mean. Increase in a low pressure signal near Greenland.

 

Anything that barrels the bloody heights out of Europe will do me... even if it means refilling the very empty water holes with some wind and rain.. 

[Catacol]

HNY one and all. Here's hoping for some lowland snow this time around!

 

[blitzen]

Happy, healthy 2017 to all Netweatherers!     We all moan about our weather but we will all be back next year to moan some more!

[radiohead]

Time to cherrypick one for the night that's in it.

[blizzard81]

I know the 18z set can be zany but just looked at the control and that is zonal as well!