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Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.


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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

Day 10 Atlantic ridge links with Siberian ridge but pattern a bit too flat to draw cold air West enough to benefit us.

ECH1-240.GIF?31-0

Edited by Mucka
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
Just now, northwestsnow said:

Well i like the Ecm and its looking good for me - 216 looks full of potential !!

The trouble is 9 times of 10 this is where the 'potential' always remains

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Just now, Mucka said:

Day 10 Atlantic ridge links with Siberian ridge but pattern a bit too flat to draw cold air West. 

ECH1-240.GIF?31-0

Hmmm well its all about opinions but i disagree mucka, i see massive trough disruption right there..:D

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Hmmm well its all about opinions but i disagree mucka, i see massive trough disruption right there..:D

So do I, over Eastern Europe :wallbash:

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Posted
  • Location: Kesgrave, just East of Ipswich
  • Weather Preferences: April!
  • Location: Kesgrave, just East of Ipswich

I'm no expert but it looks to me that even if the Atlantic and Scandinavia ridge join forces at T240, we will just end up with a belt of HP over the UK that will have set up too far South to get any proper cold air drawn our way. There looks to be too much energy to the North to allow the High to migrate to where we would need it to be?

 

 

image.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

I'm not sure whats worse. Zonal muck or lots of very cold air stuck to the east with zero inclination to come westwards.

The wait goes on and on and on.......

If more amplitude appears upstream which is a big if we might see the models try and cut a shortwave se'wards further west which might deliver us from this seemingly fruitless search for something wintry but I wouldn't hold my breath.

Overall tonight  if you like watching paint dry you'll love the outputs, otherwise its looking very underwhelming with the best on offer dry and cold weather.

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

Good run from ECM.  Ukmo very similar at t144.  Timing, if one has in mind or anticipation that main cold thrust from a trigger LP is midmonth then the runs aren't frustrating especially when they show deep cold building to E/Ne building and not goimg away.  

I'll get peeved when we get to 10th and there is nothing of interest showing ......which is likely :D:bomb:  

HNY all

 

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
1 hour ago, mountain shadow said:

Because in our islands its a one way street.

I cannot recall the models ever flipping back to cold once they have moved away from it.

Dearly need to see the ECM build some Scandi heights in FI in an hour.

December 2005 I remember clearly they did, at just 36 hours away! 2013 had a few wobbles here and there too. I'm sure if model runs existed back in the likes of 1987, there would've been uncertainty. That easterly fell under non negative NAO Synoptics and with quite a substantial PV

 

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Posted
  • Location: Wellingborough
  • Weather Preferences: snow
  • Location: Wellingborough

ECM0-48.GIF?31-0ECM0-96.GIF?31-0ECM0-168.GIF?31-0ECM0-240.GIF?31-0

Cold air flirts with the eastern UK throughout the ECM run... surely all we need is a relatively small shift west to see this cold air flood over the UK?

ECM101-24.GIF?31-0

This is the anomaly for 24 hours from now.

ECM101-96.GIF?31-0

and 96 hours

Taking 96 hours as FI, the outlook looks extremely blocked, plenty of potential going forward into January IMO.

Cold runs do not guarantee cold, just as mild runs do not guarantee mild weather. Its just a forecast from a computer program.

Edited by Zakos
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
5 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

This winter is exactly what it feels like being an Arsenal fan. Every time you think, "yep it's our turn" nope forget it! Frustrating model watching to say the least. That's not a moan, it's the truth!

Lmao! I feel your pain. My mood would be greatly improved if one of two things happens we get the miracle shortwave se'wards further west or Arsene Wenger decides to retire! Of course both would be a bonus but I don't think we'll get that lucky!

Edited by nick sussex
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Posted
  • Location: West Northants
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Winters, Warm Summers.
  • Location: West Northants
Just now, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Good run from ECM.  Ukmo very similar at t144.  Timing, if one has in mind or anticipation that main cold thrust from a trigger LP is midmonth then the runs aren't frustrating especially when they show deep cold building to E/Ne building and not goimg away.  

I'll get peeved when we get to 10th and there is nothing of interest showing :bomb:  

HNY all

 

BFTP

Couldn't agree more, if we have cold near by with have a chance, will take cold and dry if it's on offer. Anyway why should we take any notice of anything beyond 120-144 hrs as gospel? It's the weather it's subject to change! Also there's all that missing dater at the mo over the new year holiday.......!! Only kidding

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Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex

It's easy to be obsessed with the operational runs but one has to see the whole package - which will let us see that nothing has really changed over the past several runs, both GEFS and EPS.
Tonight's 12z GEFS actually has a majority of runs bringing NE'lies or easterlies at some stage in FI. The longer such NE'lies or easterlies persist the better are the chances of something 'tasty' happening, Note that here are plenty of -10s on offer in the suite.

The shift in the UKMO & ECM DET runs tonight illustrate the uncertainty at the moment per the GEFS spreads.

If either the 18z or 0z tomorrow will have one of the -10 runs as the op then all the angst and doom laden posts will be replaced by a more objective discussion.

ECM EPS awaited wth interest folks..

Happy & Healthy New Year to all & hope for load'sa snow!:)

Edited by Purga
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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
5 minutes ago, knocker said:

I saw Sidney earlier and he hopes all his well wishers have a happy New Year and to make sure they keep their anomalies warm

ecm_t850a_5d_natl_11.png

#Arctic-warmth!!

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Posted
  • Location: Wellingborough
  • Weather Preferences: snow
  • Location: Wellingborough

My money is on the ECM

ECM1-48.GIF?00

This is what we will see in 48 hours

ECM1-216.GIF?00gfs-0-216.png

ECM had forecast this northerly very accurately at 9 days out (216+)

GFS was having none of it.

ECM101-192.GIF?31-0ECM101-216.GIF?31-0

With the ECM now showing these anomalies at day 8 and 9, I disagree with those saying the cold spell is over.

There is very good potential down the line, and a small shift west in the medium range (120-180) could easily see cold air flooding across the UK

Eagerly awaiting the ECM ensembles...

 

Edited by Zakos
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Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire
5 minutes ago, Purga said:

It's easy to be obsessed with the operational runs but one has to see the whole package - which will let us see that nothing has really changed over the past several runs, both GEFS and EPS.
Tonight's 12z GEFS actually has a majority of runs bringing NE'lies or easterlies at some stage in FI. The longer such NE'lies or easterlies persist the better are the chances of something 'tasty' happening, Note that here are plenty of -10s on offer in the suite.

The shift in the UKMO & ECM DET runs tonight illustrate the uncertainty at the moment per the GEFS spreads.

If either the 18z or 0z tomorrow will have one of the -10 runs as the op and all the angst and doom laden posts will be replaced by a more objective discussion.

ECM EPS awaited wth interest folks..

Happy & Healthy New Year to all & hope for load'sa snow!:)

Haven't you just copy and pasted that from Retron on TWO?

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Posted
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.
26 minutes ago, radiohead said:

It's time to roll out that model we all know and love, the 12Z CPTEC BAM

cptec-0-168_fyq1.png

:drunk-emoji:

Whilst on the subject of lesser models, it might surprise some to know the best verifying models for the European Z500 sector, day seven to ten, in the month of November.

94ca354e93f1aa07c29a3dad302b73ec.png

http://apps.ecmwf.int/wmolcdnv/scores/mean/500_z

For avoidance of confusion, lowest score is best in RMSEF = 'Root Mean Squared Error of Forecast'.

 

Edited by Nouska
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Posted
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
37 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Well i like the Ecm and its looking good for me - 216 looks full of potential !!

Oh give it a rest! 

 

image.jpg

This is what the ECM was showing three days ago. 

 

image.jpg

This is is what it looks like 3 days later. image.jpg

Edited by Spah1
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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
21 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Having looked back 10 days I'm amazed at what I've seen from ECM :shok:

Today                                                         21st

ECM1-0.GIF?31-0ECM1-240.GIF?12

That's not a bad effort 10 days out

Of course, if it was raging easterlies they wouldn't come off

 

The ECM's performance during December gave me confidence it would get it right for the "reload" (that looks like won't happen now) - but may have hit the rails this time as far as the UK is concerned. Compare its T240 five days ago with its T144 today (the first chart was consistently repeated until yesterday's 12Z):

ECM1-240.GIF?00  ECM1-144.GIF?12

Shame because it got a lot of other things right!

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