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Polar Maritime

Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

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3 minutes ago, Mucka said:

one of the most important pieces is in place by the mid term on 12z. The high retrogressing/squeezed to our West after it topples which allows for much better lowering of heights to our S and SE, something UKMO has failed to do for a couple of runs but looks better this afternoon.

gfsnh-0-132.png?12UN120-21.GIF?29-17

pretty impressive high pressure area strechting from canada to france and flanders!

Edited by ArHu3
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Not a great UKMO with the spoiler low coming south through the Atlantic high - GFS looking good though

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Ukmo doesn't look to pretty to me 

IMG_5023.GIF

GFS however.... steady as she goes. :shok:

IMG_5025.PNG

viewing from behind the sofa for the remainder of this run!!

Edited by karlos1983
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UKMO still misbehaving with that Azores low. Not saying we can't still get a cold pattern from there but it would be delayed and leave more room for further issues.

UN144-21.GIF?29-17

We really need it to get on board tomorrow and for ECM to keep the faith.

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2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Not a great UKMO with the spoiler low coming south through the Atlantic high - GFS looking good though

Hi Ali, it is actually the cut off Azores low moving North and phasing with the upper trough that is the issue. Better to keep it trapped so the pattern isn't forced SE.

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1 minute ago, Mucka said:

UKMO still misbehaving with that Azores low. Not saying we can't still get a cold pattern from there but it would be delayed and leave more room for further issues.

UN144-21.GIF?29-17

We really need it to get on board tomorrow and for ECM to keep the faith.

Maybe its right and that Azores low will be there

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GFS 12z positioning of the High very nice, retrogressing west towards South Greenland, some big differences still.

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UKmo doesn't look right between 72 and 96 hrs. Its to quick to sink the Hp. 

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Uk not on board so whatever the rest of the GFS run shows is for fun only.

All eyes on the ECM and hope it doesnt go the same way as the UKM.

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12z GFS not as amplified over the Atlantic days 6-8 when compared to the 6z.  Actually looks very similar to the 6z (P).

GFSOPEU12_192_1.png

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GFS 12Z actually has sub -5 850,s further south at 174 than the 06z did.

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Not quite so amplified as the 06z op the flow behind the 2nd northerly developing later next week, but at least we do get the 2nd northerly and it looks decently cold. Now what will the vortex over Labrador/NE Canada do to the upper flow? Looks deeper this run, drum roll ....

Edited by Nick F
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Come on guys let the data roll out before the one liners. This is one run as was the 06z. Both have the same probability of verifying. The ensembles later will be the place to look!! 

 

Joe bastardi seems to be gunning for a cold Europe including U.K. on his daily update

Edited by mother nature rocks
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1 minute ago, mulzy said:

12z GFS not as amplified over the Atlantic days 6-8 when compared to the 6z.  Actually looks very similar to the 6z (P).

GFSOPEU12_192_1.png

Yes the Atlantic won't be blocked off as with the 06z but it is enough to allow for a Northerly at the very least least.

Snow moving South

gfsnh-0-180.png?12gfs-2-174.png?12

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Well the 12z does not develop the Iberian low thus it's struggling to gain as much latitude ironically the run brings arctic air in quicker, but it's not looking sustained.

Not comparable to 06z - that's for sure. 

Edited by Changing Skies
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Pretty potent looking northerly shot at +180h on the 12Z...

gfs-1-180.png?12

But unfortunately upstream isn't as amplified as the 6z, too much energy going over the top to my eye - can see this being a rather transient affair on this run.

gfsnh-0-180.png?12

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Just now, Summer Sun said:

Quite a big difference between UKMO and GFS at t144

UKMOPEU12_144_1.pngGFSOPEU12_144_1.png

And that's the start of FI , a big difference IMO

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Looks like a northerly toppler on tonight's gfs12z. Not a great run from the ukmo. Should be a interesting ecm tonight. Hopefully it doesn't follow the ukmo

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gfsnh-0-186.png?12

Given the Winter so far, this is an excellent chart but well into FI

Edited by Banbury
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Totally different run with respect to the trough over the Azores and where the energy comes from; the 06z is always a worry after D7 and the 12z reverts back to the 0z pattern:

Compare: gfseu-0-192.pnggfseu-0-180.png

The next push of energy comes from ridging in the west which will ease the pattern east, where as the 06z had a split in the lower heights over the Azores allowing WAA north rather than east. Totally different outcome expected now...

...not that either scenario is correct yet!

...as GEM highlights how it can quickly go the wrong way:

gem-0-186.png

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Certainly a lower amplitude on the high

 

@192 there maybe just enough to still get the undercut-

IMG_1222.PNG

poor UKMO again is worrying...

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198 is looking interesting...maybe get some Scieceland heights/potential easterly further down the line? 

gfsnh-0-198.png?12

Edited by weatherguy

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