Polar Maritime

Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

7,869 posts in this topic

Looks like a two week spell of mediocre winter weather for the UK, probably not a raging Atlantic storm fest but something in between.

1 person likes this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I thought it was the Steve Murr thread for a moment! Can we please continue with constructive Model discussion. And also a reminder that there is also a model ramp/moan thread open for general chit-chat. And a Winter thread open for hopes/thoughts.

Thanks.

Edited by Polar Maritime
5 people like this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Looks like we coldies got trolled by ECM yet again.

Back to the strat warming and ensembles, which at least show an increased possibility of blocking 2nd week of Feb.

3 people like this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

GFS 12z keeps it cool/cold till next monday/tuesday which yesterdays GFS 12z had it only out to Saturday/Sunday.so the block still hanging in there.i would say thats almost a week more than most would have predicted!!! the writing may be on the wall but its not dry yet. ;-)

1 person likes this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Fozfoster said:

GFS 12z keeps it cool/cold till next monday/tuesday which yesterdays GFS 12z had it only out to Saturday/Sunday.so the block still hanging in there.i would say thats almost a week more than most would have predicted!!! the writing may be on the wall but its not dry yet. ;-)

Yup hanging in there at least we had a nice day today clear skies unbroken sunshine. Interesting the forecast this morning was going for snow flurries tomorrow. More likely freezing drizzle looking at the upper temps. Now if that low on Sunday could push a little further North into the cold uppers it may be interesting. The GFS run doesn't really bring much to the table bar the very slow removal of the block. Hopefully albeit unlikely the ECM may bring something to the table. UKMO worst of the lot with full Atlantic rumble going on.

1 person likes this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Bearing in mind Fergies tweet this morning about the ECM  ends having six equally matched clusters as early 120 I would be very wary at writing off any outcome at the moment.

7 people like this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Think that as others have said before the ECM does have tendancy to over amplify things while GFS tends to be too progressive.It will be interesting to see the imminent ECM but think this will be similar to UKMO. As SM mentioned a few weeks ago and is worth remembering the UKMO is normally always the top dog at 120-144 range and usually the halfway house between the 2 above mentioned models.I must admit this time last night i was encouraged when i saw the UKMO lean more towards the ECM. Alas, today the models have reverted back to what they have hinted at in the last few days and show some form of Atlantic influence for a period of time.How long this period and how zonal is still open to debate but if nothing else i continue to enjoy model watching in the search for a proper cold decent snowy spell.We have been so close a few times already and maybe the possible SSW will have the desired effect in February. Still over a 1/3 of winter left so still time.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The ECM is out till 120 hours and it looks flatter than the 0z version.

Get ready for southwesterlies!

Edited by karyo
7 people like this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Very interesting strato signs - reverse its possible to see later

6.jpg

2 people like this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

Goodness me the 12z are abysmal for coldies no wonder the thread is quiet!

GFS wants to introduce the PV from hell as we head into Feb and as much as i dont want to buy it....

UKMO doesnt look like offering anything in the way of alternative progression at 144.

Just thinking aloud here but i really hope we dont see northen blocking come March/April,that just rubs ( un-used) salt into the wounds..

But northern blocking is always more likely in spring. It's not really a great leap to for that happen even in the absence of a late SSW. 

The westerlies were always going return so it was just our time. 

2 people like this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

ECM Is very disappointing too tonight. Looks like we've finally got this nailed down. It's going to break down to zonal, just not as quick as we thought or as shown. 

1 person likes this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The poor old ecm is always getting in the neck for churning out 10 day charts full of potential. Tonight's is saying "well stuff you then":rofl:

IMG_8307.PNG

6 people like this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Have to say now all the big 3 are out, they aren't great! GFS is the best option at 120 but even that goes shaped like the usual pear thereafter. Let's hope more changes occur before 120 in the morning for the better, but it's not looking too clever. Roll on the next garden path :doh:

gfsnh-0-120.pngUN120-21.GIFECH1-120.GIF.png

3 people like this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

At least the ECM blasts the high pressure completely so we get some proper Atlantic dominated weather which can be cooler at times.

The halfway house would be the worst option as then we get locked in very mild southwesterlies.

 

3 people like this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Can we keep this to the models please.

3 people like this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Locking this as it's a tad long now - new thread online in a second.

Live here:

 

1 person likes this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Hotspur61 said:

Think that as others have said before the ECM does have tendancy to over amplify things while GFS tends to be too progressive.It will be interesting to see the imminent ECM but think this will be similar to UKMO. As SM mentioned a few weeks ago and is worth remembering the UKMO is normally always the top dog at 120-144 range and usually the halfway house between the 2 above mentioned models.I must admit this time last night i was encouraged when i saw the UKMO lean more towards the ECM. Alas, today the models have reverted back to what they have hinted at in the last few days and show some form of Atlantic influence for a period of time.How long this period and how zonal is still open to debate but if nothing else i continue to enjoy model watching in the search for a proper cold decent snowy spell.We have been so close a few times already and maybe the possible SSW will have the desired effect in February. Still over a 1/3 of winter left so still time.

Is the GFS the most progressive post it's update?  It was the first to hold the Atlantic back. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.