Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

[northwestsnow]

18z saying no to ukmo/ ecm.Really difficult to get a consensus when its cold solutions or potentially cold solutions on offer, so frustrating...

[SMU]

GFS sniffing it out...

[Mucka]

Just now, Steve Murr said:

GFS sniffing it out...

Yup baby steps as usual.

[Ali1977]

Little ridge behind the first low maybe help stop the next one merging quite so easily, didn't Nick mention something earlier about stopping them phasing!! Anyway lets see!! 

[Allseasons-Si]

The problem with the gfs 12z at the early stages was with that Newfoundland shortwave phasing with the one trying to disrupt to our NW,this reduces the hieght rises towards Iceland at 96hrs,as you can see here

12z gfs/ecm

the 18z trying at 90

tonights 8-14 day anomolies compared to last nights shows the trough slighly more to the SW with hieghts pushing through Greenland

thanks steve for another great post,again,i always look forward to a detailed view across the board and not just you,there are some other creditable posters on here too,keep up the good work.

cheers

oh!!! wheres knocker these days,is he getting cold feet

 

 

Edited January 24, 2017 by Allseasons-si

[Duane S.]

6 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Yup baby steps as usual.

Yep, GFS doing its usual trick. It never shifts massively from one run to the next when it's wrong. Just gradually, bit by bit, hoping like maybe nobody noticed. 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

definitely a backtrack! Sundays rain now just skirts the south, and where's Frosty??

[January Snowstorm]

1 minute ago, s4lancia said:

Yep, GFS doing its usual trick. It never shifts massively from one run to the next when it's wrong. Just gradually, bit by bit, hoping like maybe nobody noticed. 

Of course in reality it does quite well and the usual outcome is a half way house between the 2

[blizzard81]

1 minute ago, January Snowstorm said:

Of course in reality it does quite well and the usual outcome is a half way house between the 2

Most of the time but not all of the time. I have a feeling that in this instance the gfs will end up with much yolk on face

[Allseasons-Si]

 

anyway best get back to MOD,the gfs has neg tilted trough at 144hrs compared to the 12z 150hrs so getting there

 

 

Edited January 25, 2017 by ajpoolshark

[blizzard81]

I never expected the gfs 18z to come onboard. The only time it shows cold heaven is when it is never going to happen.

[Allseasons-Si]

1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

I never expected the gfs 18z to come onboard. The only time it shows cold heaven is when it is never going to happen.

Yup....in fl

[SMU]

Its certainly worth noting tonight that a couple of the relative 'rookie' models have certainly developed the ECM idea -

The Nasa Geo model both 00z ( wow ) & 12z

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geose_cartes.php?ech=3&code=0&mode=0&carte=1&archive=0

The CMA

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cmae_cartes.php

The FIM

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/fime_cartes.php

good info for future reference....

 

[Allseasons-Si]

1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

Its certainly worth noting tonight that a couple of the relative 'rookie' models have certainly developed the ECM idea -

The Nasa Geo model both 00z ( wow ) & 12z

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geose_cartes.php?ech=3&code=0&mode=0&carte=1&archive=0

The CMA

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cmae_cartes.php

The FIM

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/fime_cartes.php

good info for future reference....

 

Just about to post about the nasa geos,looks good deosn't it on the 12z upto 120hrs and it's 00z was well....fantastic

what is the stats of this model?

[SMU]

16 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Just about to post about the nasa geos,looks good deosn't it on the 12z upto 120hrs and it's 00z was well....fantastic

what is the stats of this model?

No idea - lets hope its derived on the ECM platform !

go go GFS ENS - should be some better undercutters tonight...

[Allseasons-Si]

1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

No idea - lets hope its derived on the ECM platform !

go go GFS ENS - should be some better undercutters tonight...

don't the meto use nasa steve?

do you think the op is a mild outlier?

looking forward to seing them

[Jason M]

6 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Just about to post about the nasa geos,looks good deosn't it on the 12z upto 120hrs and it's 00z was well....fantastic

what is the stats of this model?

It ranks above Rosie the fortune teller, but just below tea leaves

Not really seeing the potential here I must admit. I can just about (at a stretch) see some form of easterly but nothing particularly cold. ECM feels like the top end of the potential to me and even that isn't cold at 850 level.

 

 

[Allseasons-Si]

The 18z ens upto 120hrs look a real mess to me,so much to resolve yet at this short distance.

[SMU]

GFS trending in the means at 120 - all going 1 way towards the ECM

12z 132 mean - all UK in SW winds

18z 126 mean - Arctic Winds pushing south

GFS control @132 = same path as ECM

S

[snowray]

And the control at t144 a lot better.

[Allseasons-Si]

Some nice eye candy showing up in the ens and in high res too,i will take that for tonight thankyou.

Edited January 24, 2017 by Allseasons-si
typo

[Just Below Zero]

24 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Some nice eye candy showing up in the ens and in low res too,i will take that for tonight thankyou.

P12 is definitely my pillow for the night.

[Daniel*]

5 minutes ago, snowray said:

And the control at t144 a lot better.

Not bad an emerging trend for lows to dive into France/Iberia maybe we'll manage a 'trigger low' if things align more favourably with a wedge of heights to the north. I do not think anyone suspected where we are right now, The supermodels clearly did not the passage to milder westerly infulence isn't going to come easy as it appeared, however it's certainly not advisable to jump aboard yet, but significant improvements compared to recent days. it did look inevitable 7-10 days at least was down the drain, I'm feeling slightly enthused for February. The way the winters gone we have certainly used up our bad karma surely somethings gotta give!..

[Trom]

Poor old GFS getting a bashing.  Don't forget it was the first model that attempted to hold back the Atlantic when Meto and ECM were being far more progressive. Noticeable as the GFS has the reputation (deserved or not) for being the most likely to default to zonal.  Does it still have this post upgrade?  It certainly has a tendency to sniff something out then underplay it relative to ECM before moving towards the Euro output.  I read somewhere that it's slightly inferior stats were due to the initialisation data and that it had some years ago been run with ECM initialisation data which improved it's verification stats.

Also thank you to those that have championed more volatility information being posted with mean charts.  I notice quite a few posts of means along with ensemble charts which personally I've found to improve my ability to interpret those mean charts without having to delve around to find volatility.

I'm guessing if the trends continue this place will be a lot busier and all the behavioural dissonances will rear their heads.  Anyway so much more positive than a few days back.

Edited January 25, 2017 by Trom
using the word "chart" x4 in the same sentence

[SMU]

Last one from me tonight-

big swing from my ol favourite the NAVGEM 18z

from this 

to the undercutter

S