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Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

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Never posted on this site before , but watch the weather every day carefully and been watching this website for ? 10 yrs. I have 5 children and oldest 21. They have never seen a winter like the chart today is predicting. I have watched daily the winter charts for last 40 yrs and can not ever recall seeing anything like this .  When i was 13  ? 1978 in mid February we had cold easterlies , but even then temp was not as low as predicted here. Newcastle were i used to live was cut off from rest of country. .   Someone said councils will have to order lots of salt , but it does not work at -7C.

 

We have been here before so many times , but i told my kids , one year winter will come back like when I was a child . Is 2017 going to be it.  If we have sub zero temps and a few depressions drifting in from the north , then what a combination. 

great site 

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Can we stick to the models please all or posts will be removed.

Ta.

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Wow that GFS 06z was the holy grail of runs wasn't it?

Goes to show what a difference it would make to back the pattern West those few hundred miles and we get the cold uppers and instability instead of a block over us(should we get the required amplification which is still by no means certain but the ensembles are slowly inching toward the cold solution)

Fingers crossed the 12z can repeat the dose!:bomb: :cold:

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Don't mean to cause mayhem so early in the run ... but has the GFS just created a secondary trough for Sunday at T72-T78, and within the colder air...? :0

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Good consistency up to T69 so far, -5 850hpa's over the majority of the UK at this point bar the SE.

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1 minute ago, Man With Beard said:

Don't mean to cause mayhem so early in the run ... but has the GFS just created a secondary trough for Sunday at T72-T78, and within the colder air...? :0

Yes it has

gfs-2-78.png

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I know it can be difficult to manage expectations after a stellar run like the 06ZGFS and had it come completely out of the blue I wouldn't give it any credence at all but the truth is that it hasn't there have been a growing number of GEFS ensemble runs since xmas showing similar evolutions to that which the 06z has shown. perhaps another  thing to hold onto as well is that even a watered down version of the 06Z would still deliver what many on here are hoping to see this winter.

 

Edited by mcweather
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12z GFS showing Snow showers for most of England and Wales on New Years Day. The met office are just saying wintry showers over the hills though. Hmmmm who to believe?

+84: IMG_1053.PNG

Edited by Kieran
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Just now, Kieran said:

12z GFS showing Snow showers for most of England and Wales on New Years Day. The met office are just saying wintry showers over the hills though. Hmmmm who to believe?

They don't want to put it out there so quickly as we know how unpredictable our weather is.

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2 minutes ago, Kieran said:

12z GFS showing Snow showers for most of England and Wales on New Years Day. The met office are just saying wintry showers over the hills though. Hmmmm who to believe?

+84: IMG_1053.PNG

Look at the higher res version as it will show that the snow is on high ground until it reaches the far SE. All subject to change:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/royaume-uni/precipitations-hd/3h.htm

Edited by IDO
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3 minutes ago, Kieran said:

12z GFS showing Snow showers for most of England and Wales on New Years Day. The met office are just saying wintry showers over the hills though. Hmmmm who to believe?

Met office everytime. temps look far too high on NYD for snow showers away from the North

Edited by Banbury
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2 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Don't mean to cause mayhem so early in the run ... but has the GFS just created a secondary trough for Sunday at T72-T78, and within the colder air...? :0

this is the one, getting interesting for the first shot on the 1st now!! 

I wonder if the forum will reach the dizzy heights of 1000 viewers for the runs over the next week?? Think the last time was around That ECM SAGA!!

image.png

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1 minute ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

They don't want to put it out there so quickly as we know how unpredictable our weather is.

From past experience the GFS precipitation charts often overdoes the snow risk. But as it's only a few days out it makes you think many of us could get a dusting of snow on New Years Day, I'd happily take that :D

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3 minutes ago, IDO said:

Look at the higher res version as it will show that the snow is on high ground until it reaches the far SE. All subject to change:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/royaume-uni/precipitations-hd/3h.htm

High res still shows widespread snow for most of the Midlands and the South.

IMG_1054.GIF  IMG_1055.GIF

We shall see...

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Just now, Kieran said:

12z GFS showing Snow showers for most of England and Wales on New Years Day. The met office are just saying wintry showers over the hills though. Hmmmm who to believe?

It is going to be very interesting to see how that turns out on the day. 

Unfortunately back edge snow is hard to achieve in the UK, we usually need the cold in place before the ppn arrives so it depends how fast the front moves and how quickly the cold uppers dig in behind with the added complication that the ppn will fragment somewhat as it moves further South.

I would go into it more with hope than expectation though and hopefully it is just a precursor to the main event.

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I think the High sat in the Atlantic on the 6z has a better orientation allowing Northerly winds to take hold quicker, I think on the 12z this is going to take a little longer.

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13 minutes ago, Kieran said:

High res still shows widespread snow for most of the Midlands and the South.

IMG_1054.GIF  IMG_1055.GIF

We shall see...

Are these high res? To me it is a zoomed in view of the GFS 12z op, rather than some of the Higher res models such as Netwx-SR (4km), Netwx-MR (12km) and NMM etc.

I may be wrong but I thought GFS operational was 13km resolution up to T+240.

Either way, some may see snow, some won't, but not really worth thinking about too much until within the 1-2 day time frame. A bit of eye candy for now :)

Edited by Chris K

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quite big changes already early on, very appearent by +126, I hope this will bring cold forward not back because great charts past +192h never verify anyway. If we want cold we need to look for surprises appearing between 144-192h

gfsnh-0-126.png?12gfsnh-0-132.png?6

Edited by ArHu3

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one of the most important pieces is in place by the mid term on 12z. The high retrogressing/squeezed to our West after it topples which allows for much better lowering of heights to our S and SE, something UKMO has failed to do for a couple of runs but looks better this afternoon.

gfsnh-0-132.png?12UN120-21.GIF?29-17

Edited by Mucka
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