Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

[Weathizard]

Incredible ECM at 120, where does it keep plucking these charts from! 

[SMU]

17 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

its all rain im afraid

Transitioning to snow @120 -

awsome ECM

remember day 5 = Shortwave resolution starts to arrive - we are now getting some depth in that trigger low !

ECM 144 

snow showers in the SE + bitter in -9c 850 air...

168 should show the SW end of the block lifting up allowing more continental feed also remember the 00z had -8 to -10c max over debilt @day 10

S

Edited January 11, 2017 by Steve Murr

[MR EXTREMES]

still deeply cold ecm 144 one hell of purples to the west northwest very very cold there.

Edited January 11, 2017 by MR EXTREMES

[Summer Sun]

 

[Jason M]

Great 144 ECM. Pressure perhaps a bit high at 1030+ for much in way of showers? but a good starting point and med low looks deeper. All good.

Edited January 11, 2017 by Jason M

[radiohead]

TT144. I just wish the high was a bit further north. This is cold but mostly dry apart from light precip in the far south/southeast coast. Still it's a lot better than UKMO at 144.

Could be a good FI on the way though....

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

Transitioning to snow @120 -

awsome ECM

remember day 5 = Shortwave resolution starts to arrive - we are now getting some depth in that trigger low !

ECM 144 

snow showers in the SE + bitter in -9c 850 air...

S

the model shows no appreciable snow T96 period as the precip moves through nw to se across England. it does bring a Lincolnshire streamer T120 into n cambs and a thames one into nw kent/e sussex/surry day 6 though 

[Pembroke Dangler]

1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

Transitioning to snow @120 -

awsome ECM

remember day 5 = Shortwave resolution starts to arrive - we are now getting some depth in that trigger low !

ECM 144 

snow showers in the SE + bitter in -9c 850 air...

S

A 995 Mb low in the med to prop it up too that's not a sinker that's for sure bank that chart 

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Just now, radiohead said:

TT144. I just wish the high was a bit further north. This is cold but mostly dry apart from light precip in the far south/southeast coast. Still it's a lot better than UKMO at 144.

Could be a good FI on the way though....

That low pressure in the Atlantic is not too far off from undercutting the high. If it sends energy under then the easterly wind will stiffen and bring snow to the southwest

[SMU]

As expected western end of the block lifting @ 168 - deeper cold arriving

Snow showers in the E/SE & along the south coast all the way down to cornwall!

All eyes on that low close to the azores..undercut please!

Edited January 11, 2017 by Steve Murr

[Weathizard]

Stonking FI incoming, cut off high with lows undercutting? The ECM has been so consistent in this period of modelling, can we trust THIS easterly!?

... Nope, NEVER trust an easterly 

[MR EXTREMES]

just gets better and better 

[Purga]

Bitter E wind especially for the south at 168

 

[chris55]

If the AZORES low doesn't undercut i may eat a hat !

[I remember Atlantic 252]

not bad! need it further north really, snowfest for just SE I'd say on this, although my location does see the cold air

[radiohead]

1042mb high over Scotland. Cold or very cold but dry apart from along the south coast. Now lets see what happens from T192....

[Mark Neal.]

Not too be sniffed at! Very cold air from the East incoming 144hr-168hrs.

 

[doctor32]

So take it the crucial period on the models is between +72 and +96hrs to where we see the high develope and position its self? so this time tomorrow we should finally have the answer to which model was more accurate.

[Mucka]

ECM is out on its own with such a good transition from N to E flow though.

We will probably end up with something between this and GFS which wouldn't be bad at all since UKMO has been poor last two runs.

If we did get ECM it would be a best case scenario now I would think.

[pip22]

Matthew Hugo ‏@MattHugo81 54s

12Z EC trying its best to keep the mild air at bay by Sun and colder air filters back by Mon...we shall see.

 

[Wayneywoo]

Surely that High has to retrogress to Greenland eventually with the Vortex on it's way to Siberia...

[MR EXTREMES]

retrogression writen all over it greenland here we come 

 

 

Edited January 11, 2017 by MR EXTREMES
wrong chart

[radiohead]

Plenty of surface cold at T192 but we've lost the cold upper air. High still anchored around Scotland. Mostly dry. Brrrr.

[Panayiotis]

For nice viewing it would be lovely to see the high move towards Greenland with the 2 lows in the Atlantic undercutting it. Even more exciting would be if the PV decides to drop down from the north in the process...lovely ECM nevertheless but FI is clearly at 96hrs, anything after is just for enjoyment! 

[Johnp]

3 minutes ago, MR EXTREMES said:

retrogression writen all over it greenland here we come 

That's the 12z GFS from December 30th?