Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

[Iceberg]

Forgot to add the failure of the global models to correctly predicting the deepening low and association energy has major implications for any easterly. It provides the energy that helps to form the under cut and the med/French/Spain instability 

[Mark Neal.]

6 minutes ago, PerfectStorm said:

I'm not seeing the southward correction. I don't have the previous chart to back up my point but I'm almost certain northern extent of the precipitation band is where it was earlier. Happy to be proven wrong!

Looks similar, i have to say its times like these i wish the 3hr slots on the Euro 4 existed for us to see in 3 hour steps for Rainfall/Snowfall. Trying to judge from 850temps and dewpoints at 3pm where the snowline would be. I'd hazard South Midlands/Cotswolds around 2-3ish, Chilterns/Dunstable 3onwards, then home counties 4pm, london and Se 5ish.

    Temp at 3pm & 6pm according to the Euro 4.

    Dewpoints at 3pm & 6pm according to Euro 4.

 

  Upper air temps for 4pm & 6pm.

So without seeing the 3pm Euro 4 data for Rainfall/Snowfall but only seeing you can use the other charts on offer to try and decipher the transition to snow, 

[Ali1977]

1 minute ago, MKN said:

Cheshire gap streamer could see some reasonable localised falls if gets going like it has done on occasion.

Look at that coming into Scotland on Friday too, many could see snow from that as it comes south- more inland too.

[Seasonality]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

ec 12z shows tomorrows accumulations to be e hants/sussex/kent  (south of London with elevation I would say). plus Dartmoor/exmoor

Makes sense. Further north and west it all moves through too quickly and too early. Longer period of precipitation and more ground and air cooling in the favoured locations.

[chris55]

6 minutes ago, Purga said:

After the 'mild' blip coming up the GEFS trend markedly to cold

These are the 850hPa (above) so don't tell the full story i.e. surface cold always important with E'ly synoptics, The T2M are below

These paint a decidedly cold picture for the foreseeable...

Blimey! Thats a real upgrade from GEFS compared to the 00z suite!!! Still plenty of scatter, but a marked trend towards colder!

00Z for comparison!

  

[nick sussex]

The ECM looks best of the big 3 at T72hrs, hopefully it won't let us down and will deliver the easterly.

[Seasonality]

2 minutes ago, chris55 said:

Blimey! Thats a real upgrade from GEFS compared to the 00z suite!!! Still plenty of scatter, but a marked trend towards colder!

00Z for comparison!

  

Here are the London surface temps. Chilly!

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

The ECM looks best of the big 3 at T72hrs, hopefully it won't let us down and will deliver the easterly.

less amplified than yesterday (jet now south of iceland as opposed to north) but i agree better direction of WAA in the nw atlantic though clearly worse than yesterdays run. don't expec the same output as 24 hours ago ! 

[booferking]

ECM WOW 96HR..

[Ali1977]

Way better ECM than the GFS , this could bring back the Easterly 

[nick sussex]

Just now, bluearmy said:

less amplified than yesterday (jet now south of iceland as opposed to north) but i agree better direction of WAA in the nw atlantic though clearly worse than yesterdays run. don't expec the same output as 24 hours ago !

Good grief the differences at T96hrs, all down to that T72hrs being better. The UKMO really pushes a lot more energy east at T72hrs and looks pants in comparison!

[Panayiotis]

Liking the look of the ECM 12z at 96hrs, im hoping that the shortwave just north of Norway doesnt inhibit the development of the high later on, but instead help the high remain north with it driving more of an easterly feed...lets see what the next few frames have in mind!

Edited January 11, 2017 by Panayiotis

[weirpig]

Much more of the country could be in luck for more snow Friday 

[radiohead]

ECM looking significantly better than the UKMO as early as T96

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Good grief the differences at T96hrs, all down to that T72hrs being better. The UKMO really pushes a lot more energy east at T72hrs and looks pants in comparison!

That's one heck of a chart there t96. Could that be a snow event in the south East again?

[radiohead]

ECM now much better than the UKMO at T120

 

Edited January 11, 2017 by radiohead

[bluearmy]

To illustrate

Yesterday   Today

 

  

 

[booferking]

And the cold never goes

Edited January 11, 2017 by booferking

[nick sussex]

Just now, Severe Siberian icy blast said:

That's one heck of a chart there t96. Could that be a snow event in the south East again?

OMG the T120hrs blows the rest of the outputs away and is bringing the cold air in quickly.

[bluearmy]

2 minutes ago, Severe Siberian icy blast said:

That's one heck of a chart there t96. Could that be a snow event in the south East again?

its all rain im afraid

[Purga]

Well no mild blip with ECM - straight into the cold!

A tad chilly at 144hrs

Edited January 11, 2017 by Purga

[MR EXTREMES]

look at this from ecm and at 120hrs epic run coming

[Luke Attwood]

Just now, MR EXTREMES said:

look at this from ecm and at 120hrs epic run coming

Wow yes off to a quick start, -10 uppers already there! Lol

[weirpig]

Can the ecm really be wrong at this timeframe?   Great viewing 

[bluearmy]

the difference with the trough headed south (to our east) T96 provides the euro trough with more energy which drives a different profile than the other models. as I said before, the euro trough is a very tricky thing to model. if ec is wrong with the front headed south at day 4 then its wrong thereafter as it will have the euro trough wrong for days.