Jump to content
Polar Maritime

Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

Recommended Posts

33 minutes ago, Rollo said:

As usual JohnHolmes is a voice of reason here. I lived like John through the winter of 62-63 (as a young man) and enjoyed every minute of it but now with the years passing I shudder to think of the extremes that winter produced. I have not got the figures but it must have killed off a lot of the older generation to say nothing about the persistent snow and ice and what that did to the road conditions and public transport.

I have to agree, I'm not old enough to know about 62-63, but I remember my 87 snow day, only ones I had, and it was only cause the water pipes at the school got frozen. It wasn't the only time there was snow, used to throw snowballs in the playground. Can't think how many day's off school or work will happen if the 6z verifies, it will be ridiculous. All down to an inability to cope with conditions.

This frosty cold may already be effecting the vulnerable negatively.

Edited by alexisj9
  • Like 5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thanks Steve, fascinating insight into the current models.... I shall be watching with great interest

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, jvenge said:

The 6z GEFS are a little more split as compared to the 0z, I'm thinking not taking anything past day 6 too seriously at the moment.

Yes the 6z was astonishing but I prefer hindsight fact to fiction -we'll all obviously see. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
18 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Afternoon All-

So before we run out on the 12s I thought I would run through the evolution / possibilities -

 

 

Maybe the 12z should carry a health warning

Edited by phil nw.
removed most of long quote
  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
22 minutes ago, AGAL said:

Maybe the 12z should carry a health warning

Indeed!  The GFS 6z (P) wasn't brilliant - goes all zonal in deep FI after a short lived northerly days 9-10.

gfsnh-0-240.png?6

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

People are saying,that the 12z can't match the 6z for cold prolonged cold,I really don't agree why can't it be as good. The trend is deffinatley there for our weather to be dominated from the east!

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Luke Attwood said:

People are saying,that the 12z can't match the 6z for cold prolonged cold,I really don't agree why can't it be as good. The trend is deffinatley there for our weather to be dominated from the east!

Because that was one of the coldest model runs ever seen in the history of the internet!

If you have been watching the models for years, then you just know its only one way from there and thats a watered down version at best. At worst a complete flip to mild!

Thats the UK weather for you. If something can spoil cold and snowy conditions here, 99 out of 100 times it will.

-8/-10 850's and a couple of inches of snow laying for a week will do me. Problem is its nigh on impossible just to get that, down south anyway.

 

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Big big 12z about to come out. We should know by twenty to seven whether the second Northerly heralds a much much colder pattern or we end up with a UK high.

Really want to see the UKMet t+144 on board.

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Big big 12z about to come out. We should know by twenty to seven whether the second Northerly heralds a much much colder pattern or we end up with a UK high.

Really want to see the UKMet t+144 on board.

I agree though by the sounds of their latest update nothing too severe is on the cards, but in saying that they wont alter their text forecast until full confidence is realised

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well strap yourselves in guys and girls here comes the gfs12z run. I'm not expecting a extreme run like the gfs06z showed. But even a watered down version would suffice. 

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

That was some 06z GFS for cold and snow and understandably has created great excitement in the thread.

Looking at the overall NH pattern shows there is a continuing pincer movement on the vortex from the Pacific and Atlantic ridging and if anything this appears to be getting stronger so more extensive release of Arctic cold towards mid-latitudes is looking more and more likely as the days go on.

ECM Mean at T192hrs

EDH1-192 29.12.gif

 

The trend to force an expansive Russia/Scandinavian upper trough further south towards continental Europe showing up well on the mean charts.

The GFS06z op run at the same time

gfsnh-0-186.png

Much better amplification in the Atlantic but the gefs shows it was a cold outlier against the main ensemble groupings in week 2 wrt to 850's and that spike in rain( or should it be snowfall) later on

graphe3_1000_261_96___ 29.12.gif

We are still in a decent Wintry pattern though with a blocked Atlantic and building cold nearby..We just need the Atlantic ridging to stay a little further west or better still north west because currently the ens outputs still show a lot of dry weather along with the cold because of the high modeled nearby much of the time.

Hopefully the 12z runs due soon trend some way towards the 06z run but if it doesn't let's not be too surprised in view of it's standing within the ensembles.

 

  • Like 9

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Important to remember before the 12Z comes out that it is just one run, like the 6Z was just one run!  Will be very interesting to see if the general synoptics are repeated or not.  Fingers crossed guys and gals :)

  • Like 6

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

An interesting set of model runs so far today, but no clear consensus what might occur as we head through next week - as to be expected, what has caught my attention though, and borne out by the GFS 6z run is for main core of the PV to relocate towards Canada (read musings in the strat thread), whilst this makes it difficult to sustain any sufficient build of heights over Greenland, it consequently enables heights to build out of Russia and over the top of the trough through N Scandi and towards Iceland, hence not surprised to see GFS 6Z offering today - it is a plausible evolution if the core position of the PV settles back to Canada, and we see a strong amplified flow setting up - net result split jetstream flow, with most energy transferring into the southern arm, sinking trough over scandi, low heights holding over s europe - polar continental air then invading the UK. 

ECM whilst it sinks the mid atlantic heights over the country, it too shows the longwave trough taking a route to our east, and sinking into Europe, its a deep trough feature and a strong ridge most likely would build in behind.

So keep an eye on the position of the PV, how much amplification we see, if the above come into fruition, watch those heights build rapidly out from NW Russia - heading our way.

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
24 minutes ago, Luke Attwood said:

People are saying,that the 12z can't match the 6z for cold prolonged cold,I really don't agree why can't it be as good. The trend is deffinatley there for our weather to be dominated from the east!

It all depends if the models can guess reality, they usually do closer to the event which isn't good for us as reality for the British Isles is more often than not wet and windy

Edited by AGAL
tidied

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, Southender said:

Because that was one of the coldest model runs ever seen in the history of the internet!

If you have been watching the models for years, then you just know its only one way from there and thats a watered down version at best. At worst a complete flip to mild!

Thats the UK weather for you. If something can spoil cold and snowy conditions here, 99 out of 100 times it will.

-8/-10 850's and a couple of inches of snow laying for a week will do me. Problem is its nigh on impossible just to get that, down south anyway.

 

 

Well I do realise what your saying, because we are mostly getting Atlantic driven weather.but surely sooner or later we are due a big freeze, as the last one was about 6 years! Come on 12z repeat what the 6z threw at us

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The 12z has just started to roll out,I have a feeling we will and up with some kind of cold easterly.we can only dream its as good as the 6z if not better!:cold:

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Luke Attwood said:

Well I do realise what your saying, because we are mostly getting Atlantic driven weather.but surely sooner or later we are due a big freeze, as the last one was about 6 years! Come on 12z repeat what the 6z threw at us

Yes of course that's possible and we all really hope its the case, but many years of disappointment leads one to be cautious . These set ups are so rare nowadays 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Luke Attwood said:

The 12z has just started to roll out,I have a feeling we will and up with some kind of cold easterly.we can only dream its as good as the 6z if not better!:cold:

I think the point is that, while you're correct in saying that the default UK climatology (zonal Westerlies) areunlikely to appear in the early-mid part of the 12z run, a repeat of the extremes of the 06z run is even less likely.  Something in the huge spectrum between the two is almost certain; it's merely a question of where it lies along that spectrum.

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm a layman in every way but just from reading and watching over the years, I'd compare the 6z to shuffling a pack of cards and producing thirteen consecutive diamonds. There's not many places to go from there.

Obviously this is a science and not pure chance, but the huge number of variables required for something like that to transpire especially given the range would suggest a repeat is hugely unlikely. Yet the fact that current conditions make outcomes like that possible at all means we have a good chance of seeing something interesting develop.

In any event all good fun as we await the next batch of data, but as barely more than a novice myself, I'd echo any caution offered to newer members and lurkers against running off to friends and relatives with warnings of the next apocalypse... I've certainly made this mistake in the past, even when it was within 48-96 with full agreement and looked certain. I now leave that to the Daily Express!!!

  • Like 6

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×