Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

[feb1991blizzard]

Just wondering what did week 5 of the EC46 look like, looked like week 4 might have been a transition week?

[Summer Sun]

 

[Timmytour]

52 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

Hi Ali, wasn't a personal slight at you. Just that I see the statement 'but the sun is too strong' written as an absolute statement on here far too often, when that isn't really the case. 

And as March 2013 showed it's possible even in the South to have snow fall that stays around til April.....

.....if we can only get the weather to start obeying the ECM!!!! :-)

[chris55]

17 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Isn't that always the case? I'm sure there's a net-weather cliche or two in there somewhere?

yes i meant hymn (silly spelling lols) 

And yes one of these days we will actually get lucky and see a flip in the Ops that actually end up delivering the.... potential....undercutting....wedge....southerly jet...or SSW coupled with Steve Ms sausage .....Svalbard high..... cross polar flow.....Iberian Low....mid Atlantic ridge....beast from the east...battleground scenario....and there we have most of net weather cliches expressed.....though im sure i have missed a few  

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, chris55 said:

yes i meant hymn (silly spelling lols) 

And yes one of these days we will actually get lucky and see a flip in the Ops that actually end up delivering the.... potential....undercutting....wedge....southerly jet...or SSW coupled with Steve Ms sausage .....Svalbard high..... cross polar flow.....Iberian Low....mid Atlantic ridge....beast from the east...battleground scenario....and there we have most of net weather cliches expressed.....though im sure i have missed a few  

Never meant to criticise your 'speeling', Chris...Considering that we've hardly seen a flake of snow since 2013, I just find the cliches funny!

[snowray]

Great looking ECM there, was not expecting this sort of turnaround. Didn't someone on here say the other day that an Easterly that verifies is not picked up out in FI lala land for the UK but  usually starts to show up in the charts sort of out of the blue at around day 7/8? Is there any truth to this or is this just another myth? 

[blizzard81]

21 hours ago, blizzard81 said:

I agree. Far too much doom and gloom on here tonight. Yes, it is Monday. Yes, it has been a very frustrating winter thus far for coldies. However, how some can write off the first half of Feb on the 23rd Jan is beyond me. The 6th Feb is is 14 days away. Far too much faith being put into ensembles when quite frankly they have not performed very well this winter albeit mainly when forecasting cold.

 

Well, 21 hours on and I am glad to see the doom and gloom has lifted on here somewhat. The upgrades have started today as I expected. Let's hope there are more to come. Then we can start talking snow

[blizzard81]

8 minutes ago, snowray said:

Great looking ECM there, was not expecting this sort of turnaround. Didn't someone on here say the other day that an Easterly that verifies is not picked up out in FI lala land for the UK but  usually starts to show up in the charts sort of out of the blue at around day 7/8? Is there any truth to this or is this just another myth? 

Twas I  Something I have noticed over the last 14 years of model watching.

[The Weather Dragon]

Where are the doom mongerers tonight I wonder ? - the weather will do as it pleases - not as models or background signals dictate - this is mother nature after all !

[Nouska]

34 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Just wondering what did week 5 of the EC46 look like, looked like week 4 might have been a transition week?

I posted the week 5 T850 chart on the strat thread - cold southern UK and down here.

 

Edited January 24, 2017 by Nouska
add chart and post.

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, Nouska said:

I posted the week 5 T850 chart on the strat thread - cold southern UK and down here.

Thanks, sorry must have missed it - that's got to be strat related, sounds like the high wont be far enough North to get the whole of UK cold and the SE absolutely bitter and blizzard like but I suppose best to worry about getting the pattern first then worry about that.

[snowray]

5 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Twas I  Something I have noticed over the last 14 years of model watching.

Ahhh right you are there Blizzard, well this has all come out of the blue of course and with the current SSW event going on we could be onto something. Can the GFS come on board though in the next couple of runs I wonder, as has been said many times this winter, all the big 3 have to agree, middle ground compromises are simply not good enough.

[feb1991blizzard]

11 minutes ago, Nouska said:

I posted the week 5 T850 chart on the strat thread - cold southern UK and down here.

 

Cheers, is it still the same on the latest run though, that must have been last Thursdays run.

[Man With Beard]

51 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Just wondering what did week 5 of the EC46 look like, looked like week 4 might have been a transition week?

Only goes up to week 4 on Mondays I think?

Edit: just to add big turn around in the week 4 pattern on the EC monthly yesterday - Atlantic all the way - so comparisons with last Thursday worthless. 

Having seen the mess the ops are making of the 7-14 day period, I'd dare to say the EC monthly is even less relevant at the moment.

Edited January 24, 2017 by Man With Beard

[snowfish1]

35 minutes ago, snowray said:

Great looking ECM there, was not expecting this sort of turnaround. Didn't someone on here say the other day that an Easterly that verifies is not picked up out in FI lala land for the UK but  usually starts to show up in the charts sort of out of the blue at around day 7/8? Is there any truth to this or is this just another myth? 

TEITS stated this thus proving his point that models will sometimes show an easterly within a relatively short timeframe 

[nick sussex]

Latest on the MJO from the NCEP Global Tropics Hazards outlook. GFS GEFS clear outliers and not to be trusted, MJO signal expected to remain strong and continue its eastwards propogation. More later when they download the full briefing.

Edited January 24, 2017 by nick sussex

[blizzard81]

14 minutes ago, snowray said:

Ahhh right you are there Blizzard, well this has all come out of the blue of course and with the current SSW event going on we could be onto something. Can the GFS come on board though in the next couple of runs I wonder, as has been said many times this winter, all the big 3 have to agree, middle ground compromises are simply not good enough.

You are correct snowray, no middle ground will do here. At the very least, it has to be ecm all the way if we are to see anything significant but if anything we need a couple more upgrades to be on the safe side. Fortunately, I expect more upgrades

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

You are correct snowray, no middle ground will do here. At the very least, it has to be ecm all the way if we are to see anything significant but if anything we need a couple more upgrades to be on the safe side. Fortunately, I expect more upgrades

Eh? The weather will do what the weather's gonna do!

[blizzard81]

Just now, Ed Stone said:

Eh? The weather will do what the weather's gonna do!

Lol, I was referring to how the different suites often converge and we end up in a middle ground situation. We don't want this to happen this time, no room for manoeuvre.

[Singularity]

2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Latest on the MJO from the NCEP Global Tropics Hazards outlook. GFS GEFS clear outliers and not to be trusted, MJO signal expected to remain strong and continue its eastwards propogation. More later when they download the full briefing.

A suspicion of mine is confirmed; that GEFS/GFS struggles to separate ENSO-related signals from intraseasonal ones;

"Note that the RMM-index accounts for the low frequency state by removing the 120-day period mean; therefore, the GEFS forecast may be exhibiting a bias against a Maritime Continent signal given the weakening ENSO state."

Based on the GTH assessment, ECM has the best support for what it does with the overall pattern, which is good news indeed if you're seeking a continued standoff or even the block winning out (given recent trends), with UKMO close behind (MJO amplitude a bit over-enthusiastic perhaps) along with CANM which I believe is a component of the GEM ensemble pack but I'm not entirely sure about that.

I'm actually tempted to advise a total disregard of the GFS/GEFS output until the MJO situation is resolved - but when it comes down to it, even tropical hazard experts can't be relied on to get it right on all occasions.

[-uksnow-]

Quick question to anyone, what is the 'GFS Legacy' option on the GEFS suite drop down bar? Is it the ENS of the para? cheers

[nick sussex]

11 minutes ago, Singularity said:

A suspicion of mine is confirmed; that GEFS/GFS struggles to separate ENSO-related signals from intraseasonal ones;

"Note that the RMM-index accounts for the low frequency state by removing the 120-day period mean; therefore, the GEFS forecast may be exhibiting a bias against a Maritime Continent signal given the weakening ENSO state."

Based on the GTH assessment, ECM has the best support for what it does with the overall pattern, which is good news indeed if you're seeking a continued standoff or even the block winning out (given recent trends), with UKMO close behind (MJO amplitude a bit over-enthusiastic perhaps) along with CANM which I believe is a component of the GEM ensemble pack but I'm not entirely sure about that.

I'm actually tempted to advise a total disregard of the GFS/GEFS output until the MJO situation is resolved - but when it comes down to it, even tropical hazard experts can't be relied on to get it right on all occasions.

I think the issue is the ridge in Alaska, NCEP thought this might complicate the picture but the good news is that they expect the MJO in week two to have an impact on the NH and the fact they're talking about canonical composites suggests it could be a key driver.

The suggestion of ridging in the eastern USA suggests we'd be looking at a trough ahead of that and we'd have to look to the e/ne then for any cold.

Anyway for those interested heres the link:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ghazards/index.php

Big change in the De Bilt ensembles from the 00hrs to the 12hrs, a strong cluster colder than the op run day 7 to 10.

Edited January 24, 2017 by nick sussex

[Summer Sun]

 

[Captain Shortwave]

ECM ens anomalies

      

Certainly evidence to suggest a more southerly track to the jetstream with below normal heights over south west Europe. Can this track south and east enough to put the UK in a wintry position? A long way from yesterday with a typical +NAO signature, we could still end up in a cyclonic south to south westerly, but the option for a cold flow from the south east or east with low pressure sliding into France is there and a much greater possibility on todays suites. Uncertainty is very high given the background signals and the delicate nature of the Atlantic ridge in the short term.

Edited January 24, 2017 by Captain Shortwave

[Ali1977]

1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

 

Last 2 de Bilt ENS, Defo a large cluster staying colder on the latest but none really cold.