Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

[Blizzardof82]

6 minutes ago, chris55 said:

P16

Love the way that cold pool rushes in from the east.

[Gowon]

UKMO don't look too bad from a NH point of view.. We get trough disruption which slides SE and the block appears to be amplifying again shifting the jet further NE as it does so.

Edited January 23, 2017 by D.V.R

[Allseasons-Si]

9 minutes ago, D.V.R said:

UKMO don't look too bad fro a NH point of view.. We get trough disruption which slides SE and the block appears to be amplifying again shifting the jet further NE as it does so.

Poor imo,it sent most of the energy NE instead of SE of which we want the trough to do,run it through

Edited January 23, 2017 by Allseasons-si
spell check

[Gowon]

3 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Poor imo,it sent most of the energy NE instead of SE of which we won't the trough to do,run it through

I'll wait and see what the 168hr chart shows.. Hopefully somebody can post it later.

[bradymk]

This chart hasn't half upgraded the last couple of days!  Tonight's +96 from ecm

Edited January 23, 2017 by bradythemole

[mb018538]

That sort of chart is usually trouble for us. Massive ridge on the west coast of the USA...trough down the east coast, pulls cold air down with it, sent into the mid-atlantic....bigger temperature gradient with mild air from the SW...strong jet and zonality.

[SnowBorder]

Looked at all of the models today, and based on their performance so far this winter, I think, unfortunately, that I can only trust the UKMO.  

ECM looks great at + 96, but I think it will dilute nearer the time, similar to the other models. 

Genuinely surprised the UKMO is not the best performing mode now.

 

[The PIT]

Well ECM is horrid run kiss good bye to another cold run for a while.

[chris55]

The big three at 144 mostly agree that the Atlantic will ultimately break through sunday/monday (and remember it looked like this was going to happen Wednesday)

So even though it seems we have some cross model support for the longwave pattern and that the Atlantic will eventually march through, i will hold back and wait until mid week to see how the developing high pressure to our east may effect things before nailing anything anywhere.

Edited January 23, 2017 by chris55

[The Weather Dragon]

Stellar ECM 240z 

[chris55]

3 minutes ago, Jonathan Evans said:

Stellar ECM 240z 

Southerly jet, at face value potentially very stormy and mild.

[nick sussex]

Its a shame the ECM had to come out! someone should have pulled the plug and spared us this dire run.

After a few more colder days it looks like a return to milder conditions with no amplification upstream, the PV stuck to the north and this type of consistency is not what we want to see.

Dreadful stuff all round this evening with the pattern as far removed from wintry potential as you could see.

[Long haul to mild]

4 minutes ago, Jonathan Evans said:

Stellar ECM 240z 

I suppose it is stellar in that people will be able to see the stars through the gaping holes in the roof!

Thankfully it is at T240 and almost certainly won't come off like this; hopefully not anyway. It's usually the GFS that blows up LPs like this.

[The Weather Dragon]

Just now, Long haul to mild said:

I suppose it is stellar in that people will be able to see the stars through the gaping holes in the roof!

Thankfully it is at T240 and almost certainly won't come off like this; hopefully not anyway. It's usually the GFS that blows up LPs like this.

hopefully the trend of a very southerly tracking jet stream will continue - a pattern change that may allow higher latitude blocking 

[Ali1977]

Hopefully the EC 46 tonight brings some hope, as nothing in the evening runs does that's for sure!! 

[blizzard81]

13 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Its a shame the ECM had to come out! someone should have pulled the plug and spared us this dire run.

After a few more colder days it looks like a return to milder conditions with no amplification upstream, the PV stuck to the north and this type of consistency is not what we want to see.

Dreadful stuff all round this evening with the pattern as far removed from wintry potential as you could see.

Yep, I agree. A long way back to anything cold if that run comes anywhere near the mark from day 5. Still a chance that the models are underestimating the trough disruption at day 4. The models always struggle with such scenario's, even the ukmo. In fact, if you toggle between day 4 and 5 on the ecm, it just doesn't look right to me!

Edited January 23, 2017 by blizzard81

[Joseph]

Hi, did you see like this snow map in your life? 

Dont wait winter this year. We had lots of snow on December, January and will have on Febuary.. I'm wearing glass... 

Edited January 23, 2017 by Joseph

[Captain Shortwave]

11 minutes ago, Jonathan Evans said:

hopefully the trend of a very southerly tracking jet stream will continue - a pattern change that may allow higher latitude blocking 

Unfortunately in this situation the only difference is to change from mild and dry to mild and wet, in fact the end of the ECM run looks likely to deliver some rather stormy conditions.

The hemispheric pattern doesn't offer much promise with blocking over Alaska aligning the polar vortex right across our north with a west/south westerly flow across most of Europe. That said the ECM looks a little too mobile with the GEFs showing a stalling pattern with heights to our east and a deep Atlantic trough.

      

So the GEFs could suggest a mild south to south west flow with the east fairly dry and west fairly wet, there is a chance of a cooler pattern with a south to south easterly developing and any wet weather is held west of the UK.

Edited January 23, 2017 by Captain Shortwave

[nick sussex]

2 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Yep, I agree. A long way back to anything cold if that run comes anywhere near the mark from day 5. Still a chance that the models are underestimating the trough disruption at day 4. The models always struggle with such scenario's, even the ukmo.

You know I do like to clutch the odd straw but I think we need to accept the worst. Theres more chance of me becoming a mild ramper than any cold pool to the east effecting us in the next ten days.

[blizzard81]

2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

You know I do like to clutch the odd straw but I think we need to accept the worst. Theres more chance of me becoming a mild ramper than any cold pool to the east effecting us in the next ten days.

I hope those words don't come back to haunt you in the morning. Sorry, I hope they do lol

[tight isobar]

Well underwhelming' via stand point synoptic. 

However the feature of northern Pacific ridge model different via raw out.(two random examples) the mother pv lobe in differentiation as the pivot of waa begins evolution' this is imo the point of pick for yet further punching on polar vortex migration' and decipher of possible spilt/polar cross flow.

Further engagement off western'off' seaboard waa..and height correct from Scandinavia through Russian peninsula' is worthy of watch...and will have implications' for placement of siberian settlement of show 'migration lobe..

Without mention of any ssw.

It will take exact pression for any spilt/decent settlement. ..

But its beginning to flag up.

Hope rains! 

Edited January 23, 2017 by tight isobar

[blizzard81]

2 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Well underwhelming' via stand point synoptic. 

However the feature of northern Pacific ridge model different via raw out.(two random examples) the mother pv lobe in differentiation as the pivot of waa begins evolution' this is imo the point of pixk for yet further punching on polar vortex migration' and decipher of possible spilt/polar cross flow.

Further engagement off western'off' seaboard waa..and height correct from Scandinavia through Russian peninsula' is worthy of watch...and will have implications' for placement of siberian settlement of show migration lobe..

Without mention of any ssw.

It will take exact pression for any spilt/decent settlement. ..

But its beginning to flag up.

Hope rains! 

Er, I think I get what you mean

[nick sussex]

1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

I hope those words don't come back to haunt you in the morning. Sorry, I hope they do lol

Of course I would love to be totally wrong but I just can't see it happening. The block is orientated poorly and the upstream pattern is too flat at the key timeframe and the models are in total agreement.

[January Snowstorm]

We often complain about zonality being dire for cold but surely the pattern we are stuck in all winter is much worse

At least we might get some weather to discuss whether it be rain or wind. Is there anyone here became a weather enthusiast from watching anticyclonic gloom?

Worth bearing in mind that a front loaded winter may actually happen as November has been far and away colder than anything we have seen since

[blizzard81]

2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Of course I would love to be totally wrong but I just can't see it happening. The block is orientated poorly and the upstream pattern is too flat at the key timeframe and the models are in total agreement.

I get your drift, especially with regards to the orientation of the block. However, by Thursday there is some deeply embedded cold over north western Europe including the UK. This will make any trough disruption very problematic. The models will not have a good handle on this until very close range. They are completely out of their comfort zone in these situations. One way to highlight this model unease is the progression from day 4 to 5 on the ecm. It looks odd to me.