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Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.


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Posted
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey 78m asl
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey 78m asl
1 minute ago, That ECM said:

Just when you think you are getting a handle on what the models are showing and what the outcome would be you then read posts from people I respect on here and you think jeez what am I missing. I can see the Atlantic stalling but I can't see it going under. All I see is this high gradually being pushed east and us being more influenced by the low coming from the west. I am not trying to be clever or disagreeing to wind up, it just what I see. Happy for someone to show me what I am missing.

A chance here on the ecm?

 

IMG_0664.GIF

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
7 minutes ago, Great Plum said:

A chance here on the ecm?

 

IMG_0664.GIF

Morning Great Plum, I can see that it gets fairly close but doesn't make it. Having looked through the perbs it's a similar story. I think that if there was a good chance we would have seen some show it going under. 

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.

:)There is a signal for heights to build to our N/E at some juncture as posted on this thread.If that continues then there is more chance of trough disruption and energy going s/e.The trend is for the blocking to put up more of a fight than the models initially predicted.

Not trying to fill people with false hopes,just seeing options/possibilities.

Edited by winterof79
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Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK

Interesting wind chart from ECM at 144 t. Still a continental source flow into much of the British Isles with hint of backing at the surface and a real squeeze down the Irish Sea. Still not lost this one to zonal flow just yet. Looks like a battle could develop.

 C 

ecmwind.144.png

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Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
17 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Morning Great Plum, I can see that it gets fairly close but doesn't make it. Having looked through the perbs it's a similar story. I think that if there was a good chance we would have seen some show it going under. 

And three days ago few if any perbs would have shown it getting anywhere near close. If it keeps trending that way, things are possible. 

 

Not probable at this stage. But possible

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Posted
  • Location: Wythall, Worcestershire, 150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Continental climate, snow winter, sunny summers
  • Location: Wythall, Worcestershire, 150m asl
18 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Morning Great Plum, I can see that it gets fairly close but doesn't make it. Having looked through the perbs it's a similar story. I think that if there was a good chance we would have seen some show it going under. 

T168 looked good on the ECM and it looked like we had an almost certain undercut developing, then the 192 chart came out with the undercutting front having completely disintegrated, almost like it was never there in the first place. The 192 chart wasn't what I expected and looks odd to me.

Anyone else think the progression looks wierd?

That said I do think this is merely delaying the inevitable - long drawn south westerlies zonality.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
1 minute ago, Gustywind said:

T168 looked good on the ECM and it looked like we had an almost certain undercut developing, then the 192 chart came out with the undercutting front having completely disintegrated, almost like it was never there in the first place. The 192 chart wasn't what I expected and looks odd to me.

Anyone else think the progression looks wierd?

That said I do think this is merely delaying the inevitable - long drawn south westerlies zonality.

 

I don't see "long drawn south westerlies" There is little in the output to suggest that imo.

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Posted
  • Location: Wythall, Worcestershire, 150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Continental climate, snow winter, sunny summers
  • Location: Wythall, Worcestershire, 150m asl
3 minutes ago, That ECM said:

I don't see "long drawn south westerlies" There is little in the output to suggest that imo.

Maybe not long drawn, but south westerlies by 216 on the ECM.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=72&mode=1&map=1&type=0&archive=0

 

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
49 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Just when you think you are getting a handle on what the models are showing and what the outcome would be you then read posts from people I respect on here and you think jeez what am I missing. I can see the Atlantic stalling but I can't see it going under. All I see is this high gradually being pushed east and us being more influenced by the low coming from the west. I am not trying to be clever or disagreeing to wind up, it just what I see. Happy for someone to show me what I am missing.

I think what you are missing is that the models are consistently overplaying the Atlantic and underplaying the block.

With a decline in zonal winds imminent the jet stream will lack even more oomph.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
11 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

I think what you are missing is that the models are consistently overplaying the Atlantic and underplaying the block.

With a decline in zonal winds imminent the jet stream will lack even more oomph.

 

Thanks for the reply. I can see that they have underplayed the block. Would the decline of zonal winds not be taken into account in the gfs etc? or is it known that this info does not show until it is happening? Last post from me for awhile as I am sure others are getting bored with the various questions from me, just trying to improve my understanding.

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Posted
  • Location: Saltdean,Nr Brighton,East Sussex,Hither Green,SE London.
  • Location: Saltdean,Nr Brighton,East Sussex,Hither Green,SE London.

Such deep,entrenched cold takes a lot of shifting.

Models in the past have always failed to take account of this, even parts of the UK are into their second week of hard frosts and below average daytime maximums.

The cold under the Euro High is of course brutal in places.

Edited by sunnijim
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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
11 minutes ago, Purga said:

Still remaining mostly cold and frosty up until mid / end of next week according to the 'big 3' models.

Personally I've always condidered CMA as the best.

cma-0-192.png?00

:rofl:

You never know though a week is a very long time in weather watching. :D

Don't you just hate people who pattern match :wink:

archives-1991-2-6-0-0.png

archives-1991-2-7-0-0.png

Edited by winterof79
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Temperatures over Eastern Europe will recover slightly over the next few days

gfsnh-1-84.png

By mid next week, they are back in the freezer

gfsnh-1-132.pnggfsnh-1-180.png

ECM's take on the next cold blast for Eastern Europe

ECH0-120.GIF?20-12ECH0-144.GIF?20-12ECH0-168.GIF?20-12ECH0-240.GIF?20-12

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
  • Weather Preferences: continental climate
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow

Cold block in place in Europe,let's see if it can fight of the Atlantic,I think the chances are slightly better then usual the more east you are, it is frustrating from the perspective of Ireland that we have completely missed out on this exceptional cold spell in Europe,which even rivals some famous from 80s and 2009 where even we managed to get a slice of the Cold and snow cake, the map  attached highlights my point, let's see what February brings.

FB_IMG_1484902646407.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire

One key difference with this mornings ECM is from +144 it takes a low SE into Russia cutting through the high.

I have mixed feelings with the output. The positive is we still have time for corrections which may yet bring something more exciting from the E. The negative (more likely) is this high is delaying the inevitable return of W,lys and wasting precious days of winter. Sometimes in these situations if the high isn't going to deliver then I prefer a reset and hope something better develops further along the line.

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.
18 minutes ago, jules216 said:

Cold block in place in Europe,let's see if it can fight of the Atlantic,I think the chances are slightly better then usual the more east you are, it is frustrating from the perspective of Ireland that we have completely missed out on this exceptional cold spell in Europe,which even rivals some famous from 80s and 2009 where even we managed to get a slice of the Cold and snow cake, the map  attached highlights my point, let's see what February brings.

FB_IMG_1484902646407.jpg

Yes, was -15 this morning here.

However, it seems the models are more keen to slow the Atlantic down, rather than hold it. Who knows what the next runs show though.

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Posted
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl
15 minutes ago, TEITS said:

One key difference with this mornings ECM is from +144 it takes a low SE into Russia cutting through the high.

I have mixed feelings with the output. The positive is we still have time for corrections which may yet bring something more exciting from the E. The negative (more likely) is this high is delaying the inevitable return of W,lys and wasting precious days of winter. Sometimes in these situations if the high isn't going to deliver then I prefer a reset and hope something better develops further along the line.

 

 

I hear what you're  saying teits but what about the high holds on as long as it can until the ssw?

Personally for me the lest we see of westerly,the better.

Just got this gut feeling about Feb due to past experiences ie 70'so onwards.

I'm intrigued.

Edited by joggs
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Posted
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl
15 minutes ago, TEITS said:

One key difference with this mornings ECM is from +144 it takes a low SE into Russia cutting through the high.

I have mixed feelings with the output. The positive is we still have time for corrections which may yet bring something more exciting from the E. The negative (more likely) is this high is delaying the inevitable return of W,lys and wasting precious days of winter. Sometimes in these situations if the high isn't going to deliver then I prefer a reset and hope something better develops further along the line.

 

 

I hear what you're  saying teits but what about the high holds on as long as it can until the ssw?

Personally for me the lest we see of westerly,the better.

Just got this gut feeling about Feb due to past experiences ie 70'so onwards.

I'm intrigued.

Edited by joggs
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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

Nearly a boom chart from the ECM at T168. If we want snow, a little tweak will do. Slightly better angle, slightly lower 850s, slightly less warm air into to the mix from the Mediterranean. Compare with this chart from Jan 2010 - which produced heavy lowland snow as far west as Devon with uppers only just above freezing:

ECM1-168.GIF?20-12 archives-2010-1-12-12-0.png

ECM0-168.GIF?20-12  archives-2010-1-12-12-1.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
7 minutes ago, joggs said:

I hear what you're  saying teits but what about the high holds on as long as it can until the ssw?

Personally for me the lest we see of westerly,the better.

Just got this gut feeling about Feb due to past experiences ie 70'so onwards.

I'm intrigued.

I hear what you are saying. A GFSP did show what you describe as an E,ly finally arrived at +300 when the Atlantic finally undercut.

I also agree about Feb. The combination of what is occurring in the Strat and Feb being the month more likely to see blocking than Dec, Jan, then we could have plenty to look forward to.

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Posted
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire

Block looking a lot stronger at T+150 on the 06z (versus T+156 on the 00z where the Atlantic is making reasonable inroads).

Edited by Paul_1978
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Posted
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
  • Weather Preferences: snowy winters,warm summers and Storms
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le

GFS06z Showing snow flurries/snow showers spreading from the SW Saturday Night Maybe a dusting for a few places

C.S

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