Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

[Seasonality]

ECM 144 is really trying. 

 

[Purga]

ECM trying very hard to give us an easterly

And Nick Sussex high blood pressure!

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, Seasonality said:

ECM 144 is really trying. 

 

Aye. You can say that again!

[nick sussex]

Similar outputs so far apart from the ECM in terms of a pool of colder uppers that work south and then that area which works back west. This might be important if we get some trough disruption as that pool of colder air might get enough cold into northern France to undercut any precip from the west.

Just a bit more trough disruption needed at T168hrs, the key for the UK is the surface flow ahead, is there enough cold to the se to turn that rain to snow?

Edited January 19, 2017 by nick sussex

[Seasonality]

Nice little cold pool pushing into the northwest of the UK. 

[Mark wheeler]

2 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

ECM 144 is really trying. 

 

A question that little blue spot in France , on that chart is it close enough to bring any wintry of note in to the southeast?. Still learning . These type of charts still get me racking my brains . I accept I could be miles off here and with it look like a bit of a fool. But ask no questions ....

[booferking]

Snow event ecm Ireland.

[North-Easterly Blast]

With high pressure holding on to our east; the problem we have is that too much energy is riding over the top of the block, not allowing heights to build far enough north into Scandinava; to get an easterly we need the Atlantic trough to disrupt and a LP go under the block into Europe, but this is not playing ball.

[Purga]

Now then do I spy trough disruption ? -- is there some energy trying to dive SE?

[northwestsnow]

[Gowon]

5 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Aye. You can say that again!

Aye. And the possibility of an easterly?

[Seasonality]

1 minute ago, Mark wheeler said:

A question that little blue spot in France , on that chart is it close enough to bring any wintry of note in to the southeast?. Still learning . These type of charts still get me racking my brains . I accept I could be miles off here and with it look like a bit of a fool. But ask no questions ....

A bit far away on that chart. Here are the 850hpa temps. 

[Methuselah]

7 minutes ago, D.V.R said:

Aye. And the possibility of an easterly?

 

7 minutes ago, D.V.R said:

Aye. And the possibility of an easterly?

That chance or fat chance? But I certainly hope we're on the same side of the amplification, come Summer.

Edited January 19, 2017 by Ed Stone
An unintentional 'guess the missing word' comp!

[Seasonality]

4 minutes ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

With high pressure holding on to our east; the problem we have is that too much energy is riding over the top of the block, not allowing heights to build far enough north into Scandinava; to get an easterly we need the Atlantic trough to disrupt and a LP go under the block into Europe, but this is not playing ball.

Getting mighty close though. Check out the pincer movement!

[nick sussex]

2 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

A question that little blue spot in France , on that chart is it close enough to bring any wintry of note in to the southeast?. Still learning . These type of charts still get me racking my brains . I accept I could be miles off here and with it look like a bit of a fool. But ask no questions ....

That pool of colder air could be important if it drops temps over northern France because as fronts move in from the west you might get an undercut. What ideally you want to see is more sharpness to the trough disruption and more cold still left over central Europe. The surface flow is crucial, its not necessary to see deep cold uppers, you can get frontal snow with a continental flow with 850's just below zero.

[JBMWeatherForever]

In view of where we were only a few days ago and how things are trending, I really do think that an easterly is now quite possible.  Once we start to see trough disruption being shown (and that's what is now being shown) then there is no telling where we might end up.   Things can then just turn on a sixpence, and an easterly is upon us.  We have been out of luck so far this winter, but things may be about to change.

[bluearmy]

That run does bring transient snowfall ahead of the front

wouldn't be looking beyond T168.  a bit less forcing behind that long wave trough and the next system could even undercut. the little cold pool is a bit of a problem on that run as its 90% likely gone next run.  another op run to keep the interest going ......... 

 

[nick sussex]

I think we need to see these changes at T168hrs to improve chances for the UK in terms of some frontal snow. You need to get some ridging further towards Iceland and over the top of that trough, a sharper trough, less bulge at the bottom.

At this range how much cold is left over Europe is still uncertain so still room for that to change.

 

 

[chris55]

That elusive undercut of winter 2016/17 ......could it just be that ECM is spying something!! 

Time will tell, but with the positive changes seemingly taking place in the 144 -192 time frames tonight's ECM has certainly perked my interest.

[Pembroke Dangler]

just a few more westward corrections and game on here I think, can't help but feel this is so similar to the event of few years ago where the Atlantic just folded into Iberia after being shown to bulldoze through the uk just a few days before keep those corrections west coming.....

[Mark wheeler]

17 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

That pool of colder air could be important if it drops temps over northern France because as fronts move in from the west you might get an undercut. What ideally you want to see is more sharpness to the trough disruption and more cold still left over central Europe. The surface flow is crucial, its not necessary to see deep cold uppers, you can get frontal snow with a continental flow with 850's just below zero.

Thanks Nick and seasonality for answering my question much appreciated I'm learning so much from you guys .

[Methuselah]

Does anyone know what happened to the 'LIA Footprint'?

[nick sussex]

Not sure I buy what the ECM does upstream at T216 and T240hrs. It amplifies the flow over the central USA but doesn't pull the Azores high nw, instead has a broad area of low heights. You'd expect that amplification to help direct the jet more se near the UK. The energys heading away from the troughing near the UK. I'd expect to see that troughing start to disrupt and more energy se if the ECMs upstream amplification verifies.

 

[Gowon]

7 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

 

That chance or fat chance? But I certainly we're on the same side of the amplification, come Summer.

It's only a slight chance but it's interesting nonetheless.

[chris55]

The result from that excellent 168 chart is the Scand/Russian high ends up sitting at a much higher latitude keeping the colder flow more east to west, rather than southwest down into Greece etc. If this trend can continue and we can grab an undercut then all sorts of cold options could materialise.

Very low confidence however, but nice to see some positive signals at least in the mid term from ECM.