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Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.


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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

hgt300.png hgt300.png

Only subtle adjustments with more of a switchback in the jet stream.

Even with that UKMO 12z run, I have a feeling @Bring Back1962-63 is onto something with the blocking being underestimated. Getting snow from it will require a whole lot more adjustments though - the Atlantic trough would have to disrupt against the block and then the secondary sliding low overcome the tendency of the season so far; high pressure dominating across the UK.

What's neat is that the longer the milder setup can be delayed, the closer the start of it will be to a time when the eastward propagation of the MJO - via global momentum budget as Tamara summarised very nicely earlier - should encourage something different to occur. Noting that GEFS continues to insist on a decaying MJO which may be rendering it unable to see the true path in the 10-16 day range.

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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland

don't forget that there is a strat thread dedicated to.....well, I'll let you guess, but there's no prizes..... so strat only posts should go in there......By all means include strat-related material in here providing it's actually relevant to the model output discussion.....cheers

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

The ECM and GFS are on the same page at least with the high over east Canada being more amplified. The differences start as early as T96hrs with the UKMO output.

The ECM is the most amplified and the UKMO the flattest solution. The UKMO rarely beats the ECM over the USA and with the GFS supporting the ECM at least before T120hrs then its a low probability outcome.

As for where the ECM is now going at T192hrs, depends whether you think the MJO is now effecting the NH pattern!

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

Could we really get an Easterly? Could the METO miss this, or at least not foresee MJO/STRAT changes 10 days ahead (maybe not Strat yet)

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Posted
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking low pressure in winter. Hot and thundery in the summer
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
9 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

T144 on ECM as suggested last night- its deflected further NW, infact england remains in an easterly flow from start to 144 & it appears the atlantic may pass to the North with a fast SE jet behind there may be undercutting

Also colder air hitting scandi at 144 -

IMG_1824.PNG

 

Steve iv never been convinced of this zonal spell, ok on the face of it its been well advertised on the mods but it means nothing when it comes to areas of blocking, and one thing we have on our side is low pressure over the med which will always help prop up the high pressure somewhat. 

IDO constantly talks about zonal from day 9/10 yet when it comes to blocking experience should tell all of us things can change at relatively short notice. 

So then we have the jet which at present is going over the top of the high which will work at trying to sink the high. Hence we have a euro high rather than a scandi one. But with the jet looking at kinking southeast then 'if' it happened it can become interesting.  I still think a window of zonal is favoured however the blocks certainly gathering pace at coming back into frame 

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Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
10 hours ago, chris55 said:

Any chance of a ridge being thrown up ahead of the Atlantic low around 144 on ECM? Very unlikely and the 00z flattens things at 168,  but with little forcing coming out of Newfoundland its a wildcard option.

 

 

Wildcard option gathering a little bit of pace tonight......

ecm 120 s.png

And the flattening out at 168 shown on 00z now looks like a UK high!

ecm168 s.png

 

 

 

 

Edited by chris55
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Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

240 and well....im ok with that, at least the zonal train has been utterly de-railed!!

ecm 240 s.png

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Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex

The Greeks must be getting fed up now! Strong northern arm, sinking high, sound familiar? :rofl:

With the jet overriding to the north it will take some doing for us to get a noteworthy easterly. Its not impossible, but highly improbable IMHO.

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Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
3 minutes ago, Jason M said:

The Greeks must be getting fed up now! Strong northern arm, sinking high, sound familiar? :rofl:

With the jet overriding to the north it will take some doing for us to get a noteworthy easterly. Its not impossible, but highly improbable IMHO.

Well even the idea was highly improbable this time yesterday, so lets just see where we eventually end up before making any Greek predictions lol ;) 

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Posted
  • Location: Wellingborough
  • Weather Preferences: snow
  • Location: Wellingborough

gfs-0-204.pnggfs-0-192.png?12

ECM1-192.GIF?00ECM1-192.GIF?17-0

Both ECM and GFS have shown a drastic shift in the medium range output.

 As others have alluded to, the models are not dealing well at all with the supposed removal of the cold air entrenched over Europe.

ECH101-240.GIF?12

Yes its day 10, but that anomaly screams cold weather potential

ECH101-192.GIF?12

Even at 192, the anomaly is fantastic. The cold air, it seems, is going nowhere without at least putting up a fight.

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ECM what have you gone and done?? im not sure ive got the Vodka and Prozac for another Easterly chase.. ahh what the hell All Aboard. lets see if this trend gathers pace over the next few runs/days. :drunk-emoji:

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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.

F.F.S ecm. Talk about cold tease. Will be chilly in Warsaw again next Friday if that verifies. 240h though...

ECM1-240 (9).gif

ECM0-240 (8).gif

Edited by Seasonality
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Posted
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW ICE
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND

I've lost count of how many 240ECM runs has shown an Easterly :nonono:

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
1 minute ago, snowice said:

I've lost count of how many 240ECM runs has shown an Easterly :nonono:

Don't know why but I feel ecm has got the right idea this time. In fact I actually think there will be upgrades to the scandi high in subsequent runs.

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

There may be an extra factor in the mix this year; the very low Arctic sea ice (record low in fact) has since Dec 2015 (yes 2015) shown evidence of permitting deep autumn and wintertime storms to travel closer to the North Pole due to a weakening and shrinking of the 'cold desert' over the core of the sea ice.

This season we've seen storm tracks adjusted unusually far northward on more occasions than tropical and stratospheric forcing can totally account for. The ECM 12z has produced a particularly extreme example which I would have considered outlandish had there not been a similar storm track and intensity of storm taking place right this very moment... yes, this is all hypothetical until masses of data have been processed and analysed to provide absolute information on the matter, but I've seen and read an awful lot in the past year to support the idea.

So it could be that a ridge in a similar position to currently has more support than usual this winter. Note, though, that this means we need some help from other forcing to get a decent easterly rather than a faint whiff in the southeast.

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

Well I must admit, I was not expecting that from the ecm, no way. :air_kiss:

IMG_5517.PNGIMG_5516.PNG

very naughty! 

I'll hazzard a guess that it sits towards the cold end of the ensembles though :nea:

i guess Debilt ensembles will reveal more than Londons.

Edited by karlos1983
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